James C. Capretta @ NRO:
As 2013 begins, encouraging a discussion about how to replace the president’s health-care law might strike some observers as a case of particularly bad timing. After all, in the year just ended, the Supreme Court upheld most of the provisions of the law and the president won reelection. As a consequence, the best opportunities to remove the law from the books before it ever really got started are now gone. The tough reality now is that Obamacare is not going to be undone during the next four years. So why bring up an alternative plan at this point?
The answer is that replacing Obamacare is by necessity a long-term project; you have to start somewhere. Moreover, it remains essential. Like it not, health-care policy is central to the struggle over the size and scope of governmental power. Without a better approach than Obamacare, there will be no success in limiting government or in lessening the dependence of citizens on the state.
It is also going to take a lot of work and political effort to build the political coalition necessary to move health-care policy in a different direction. Indeed, one of the reasons Obamacare passed in the first place is because opponents of government-dominated health care never coalesced around a serious and workable alternative in the years prior to 2009. Moreover, those efforts that did take place to promote a real alternative, such as Senator John McCain’s proposal from the 2008 campaign, fell far short because they were not preceded by the necessary policy and political groundwork.
But all is not lost. Obamacare is flawed legislation that is already forcing employers to cut back their hiring and limit their employees’ hours. It will soon send premiums sky high for many Americans who already have insurance. Promises about the law’s coverage and cost-control effects were greatly exaggerated. There will come a time — sooner rather than later — when Americans will be ready to hear again about an alternative to Obamacare’s government-heavy approach. At that moment, which might coincide with the 2016 presidential contest, Obamacare’s opponents must be ready with a viable, center-right, market-based alternative that can win public support. And the only way to be ready for a debate on health care in 2016 is to get to work now on the alternative plan. It takes that long to develop a workable framework, get it analyzed with credible numbers, and refine it to ensure it has broad appeal.
In that spirit, I am circulating again two essays on this subject from 2012.