Jeremy Carl:
Before we begin debunking, let’s start with the obvious: It was undoubtedly a good night for Trump and unsurprisingly so, as NR’s Henry Olsen predicted on election eve.
Trump looks to have taken 90 delegates and 60 percent of the vote, somewhat better than projections, although most election-eve forecasts had him taking at least 85 or so of New York’s 95 delegates (Olsen had him pegged for 87).
But despite his victory, Trump got only a very modest bump from New York last night. And despite the breathless TV and print commentary from our New York–centered media, he still faces huge obstacles if he wants to get a sufficient number of delegates to be nominated on the first ballot. And if he is not nominated on the first ballot, given Cruz’s wildly successful delegate strategy, it is unlikely he will be nominated at all.
In fact, according to the analysis of the widely-respected 538.com, Trump actually fell just short of the number of delegates he needed in New York to put himself on the path to the magic number of 1,237.
And, though he should have a good week next week when Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island vote, he will need a New York–level performance, not just a victory, if he wants to substantially improve his nomination odds.
New York and the five states voting next Tuesday are all part of the Democrats’ “blue wall.” Democrats have won all of these states in each of the last six elections. Only one of these states (Pennsylvania) has given more than 45 percent of its vote to the GOP candidate in any of the last six elections. New York and Rhode Island have never even given 40 percent to GOP candidates during this time.
It will be a major surprise if Trump loses any of the April 26 “Acela corridor” states. In fact, the 538.com base projections, which still have Trump coming up almost 80 delegates short of the 1,237 he will need for a first-ballot nomination, project that he will easily win almost all of the delegates in these states next week. If Cruz (whom, full disclosure, I have endorsed), or even the delusional John Kasich, were to somehow surprise him, most likely in Pennsylvania or Maryland, it would constitute a major setback for Trump.
Even in a best-case scenario for Trump, he can probably gain no more than ten or 15 delegates above current projections, still leaving him far off pace to clinch the nomination. On the downside, if he unexpectedly loses anywhere on April 26, his path to 1,237 delegates is almost certainly foreclosed. An April 26 sweep is already priced into Trump’s stock.
The real final charge for the nomination begins not next week in the Northeast, but the following week in Indiana, the first of the final ten states to vote on ground that is much more favorable to Cruz. In fact, Cruz is favored in most of the last ten states, with only New Jersey and (narrowly) California falling into the Trump column. (Tim Alberta has an outstanding look at Cruz’s strategy in Indiana on NRO today.)
There is no denying that Indiana is critical for both Trump and Cruz – Cruz can survive a loss there, but an overwhelming victory by Trump in Indiana could make 1,237 delegates a reasonable possibility for the businessman and would definitely be a substantial blow to Cruz’s chances. In contrast, if Cruz wins in Indiana, the “swingiest” of the states that he is favored to win down the stretch, Trump would face almost impossible odds in getting to 1,237. Until Indiana, almost every delegate Cruz wins is upside – and his biggest risk (even more so than Kasich’s crazy-uncle spoiler candidacy) is that a sloppy pro-Trump media narrative overwhelms him before he can get back to the campaign trail, where he will almost certain close strongly. Barring a very unusual occurrence, this contest will not be decided until (at the earliest) the final states vote on June 7.
Yes.
He needs 53% of all the remaining delegates.
Right, absolutely correct.
I wonder if there will be a voter ”get-on-the-bandwagon,” back the winner tide?
Usually, there is such a tide.
We’ll see.
From the 538blog citation:
Yes.
There are many unbound delegates who also will want to back the popular candidate, the one who could out-vote a Dem in a Gen Election.
Neither Cruz* nor Kasich** can do that.
If Trump can’t do it, either, then for sure the Dem will win.
*Cruz can’t bring in moderate Republicans.
**Kasich can’t excite the voters to come out to vote.
@Nanny G: Trump’s numbers are pathetic against HRC. Which delegates will go to “winner” or is it whiner Trump–lyin Ted’s?–little Marco’s? I think not. He’s gotta get to 1237 before Cleve.—Cal will stop him at about 1140.—He loses at Convention.
I’ve been saying this for a long time.
Unless there is a bandwagon effect whereby voters AND delegates decide to go with Trump, he loses UNLESS he gets to 1237 before the convention.
My prediction, Trump gets nom. Runs against Lying Hillary and wins.
@Rich Wheeler:
“Trump Is Still Not on the Path to Nomination”
(Title here.)
Don’t think that’s wishful thinking?
How well do you expect the GOP to do in November if all the Republicans who voted for Trump are denied?
“Trump Is Still Not on the Path to Nomination” = “The GOP is Still Not on the path to the Presidency.”
Curt could have saved a whole lot of words if he had used that title instead.
@Nanny G:
All the Trumpeteers are wanting to show that Trump can win the general by using New York. Well, if New York is an indication of how the general will go, Hillary will win by a landslide.
Hillary alone, not Hillary and Bernie, took double the votes Trump did last Tuesday. Only 880,000 turned out to vote Republican. Almost 1.9 million voted Democrat. New York will be of no help to any Republican candidate, no matter how much Trump supporters want to spin that.
The convention is light years away, at this point. And if the Hillary campaign, i.e. David Brock, thinks Trump will be the nominee, look for the dogs of Hell to be released on Trump. This is Hillary’s last chance at the golden ring and she is going to play “no holds barred” on any GOP candidate and there is mounds of opposition research on Trump that has yet to be released.
@retire05 #6:
You got that right, SWEETHEART!!!
Don’t you just LOVE the pickle the GOP finds itself in?
Your precious Teddie is the best “conservative” option you have, but he hasn’t the couch appeal that GW had, and he can’t win in the general. That leaves you praying that BOTH Democratic candidates will simultaneously drop dead, or for some other, similar miracle. I don’t believe in miracles, but I know that you do, so maybe if you just hold your breath…
@George Wells:
Please, again, be advised, I am not your “sweetheart.” And since you seem to be so hooked on gender “equality”, I find you totally hypocritical for even using that term.
Basically, you are nothing more than George, The Thread Killer, who seems to have way too much time on your hands.
@retire05 #8:
Ah, but you ARE my sweetheart!
Considering the dearth of content in your responses to me, I can’t but assume that you are whispering sweet nothings in my ear. You never disappoint!
You are as good as it gets – my SWEETHEART!
And yes, I’m gay, which means that I’m not attracted to women… thus my attraction to you.
Connect the dots.
I ALWAYS have time for you.
XOXO
LOL
@George Wells:
No, I’m not. I don’t even know you.
Nah, really? I’m sure no one here at FA noticed.
But you are still a man, and I am still a woman so you should consider this a legal notice that you cease and desist in calling me terms of endearment.
@retire05 #10:
Are you wooing me?????
AGAIN!?!
Stone: Even If Trump Wins 1,237 Delegates, Cruz Could Use “Procedural” Means To “Take Away His Majority”
Could does not mean would. Such a move would surely alienate Trump supporters to such a degree that a republican loss would become a virtual certainty. Would the GOP deliberately sink its own ship?
What the polls keep ignoring (when calculating how a Trump vs Hillary general election will go,) are some of the “Outsider” voters 25% of whom have been supporting Bernie, yet say they will crossover and vote for Trump, because there is no way in hell they will vote for Hillary. This has also been a very low turn out Primary for Democrats, while Republicans have had high turn-outs. Trump has also been drawing in much higher minority votes than were expected. Remember also that at this same point in the cycle, the polls were saying that there was no way that Regean could beat Carter.
There is now no way now that Cruz can get enough delegates to win the nomination outright, while Trump has a number of ways to get there. IF Trump fails to get the requisite numbers to put him over the top for outright nomination. (unlikely at this point,) AND it goes to a brokered convention, Cruz loses. Even with Fiorina as his token establishment VP choice, the GOPe is not going to give the nod to Cruz (whom they hate even more than Trump). Ergo, there is no path to election for Cruz to the presidency. His deal with Kasich is no longer a deal. Even with Cruz’ delegate hijinks, I don’t see him winning the 2nd uncommitted delegate ballot.
Of course, a brokered convention is what Kasich is betting the bank on. His plotting being that the delegates will eventually vote for him as the sole remaining GOPe candidate. (Although he wont have won enough states by the Convention (assuming the Party keeps in place the 8-state rule they adopted to keep Rand Paul from winning a brokered convention against Romney.)
The other problem chairman Priebus and the Convention committee face, is the fact that if Trump comes close to the 1237 delegates needed, and gets even more GOP base votes than Romney did, The party base voters will not suffer a brokered convention lightly, should anyone other than Trump or Cruz win the nomination.
I still think that a Trump/Cruz general election line-up is the best way to keep the peace in the GOP. (Assuming Trump and Cruz are willing to lay their differences aside). I imagine Speaker Ryan and
Mitch McConnell would be delighted to get Cruz out of their hair.
@Ditto #13:
“This has also been a very low turn out Primary for Democrats, while Republicans have had high turn-outs.”
Several points:
1. Republicans had an actual contest, and it was a contest that had a comic entertainer for its headliner. Republicans might have been seriously divided by their choices, but whatever their candidate preference, they WERE excited enough to get out and vote.
2. The Democrats had a far slimmer field of choices, and NONE of their options were particularly inspirational.
3. #s 1 & 2 above account for the fact that Republicans cast over 20 million primary votes, while Democrats cast just over 15 million.
4. Hillary DID receive over a million more votes than Trump, even from a less enthusiastic base of voters than the GOP could brag of having.
5. Any comparison of fundamental electability of EITHER frontrunner is complicated by too many variables that cannot be evaluated now. What will trump say? Will Hillary be indicted? Will Republic NON-Trump supporters vote more than Democratic NON-Hillary supporters? Who knows?
6. Hillary has demonstrated heavy support among minorities in Southern states – states that have long been a Republican stronghold in presidential elections. Trump will NOT do well among those voters, and if Hillary manages to get them to the polls, she will seriously challenge the GOP’s grip on the South. Countering that could be her relative weakness in some Northern states that have traditionally gone Democrat.
7. It will be an interesting contest. But no, Trump and Cruz won’t ever be on the same ticket.
Ditto :Well written from a wishful right wing prospective.
As George says Cruz would never accept a V.P. request—would “little Marco”??–he’d be Trump’s best choice—–Kasich would bring must win Ohio–doubt he’d take it if offered
To beat HRC Trump needs FL. Ohio and Va. or N.C.–Repubs hold deep South.–HRC easily holds N.Y Cal and traditional blue Dem. states. Two deeply flawed candidates in an ugly race, wasting millions to get a result similar to what we’ve see in last 4 elections..
I don’t expect Trump will select Cruz either, I am reminded however about Regan tapping George Bush Sr. even thought the two of them were not on friendly terms in the primaries. I don’t think Trump will tap Rubio as he brings too many problems, the biggest being the eligibility issue, but also the fact that Rubio couldn’t even win his own state.
:
25% of Bernie supporters will be voting for Trump (at current count, that’s 2,241,850 more Trump votes and that’s not including the Bernie supporters who haven’t voted yet.) That wipes out George’s ‘Hillary got 1 million more votes that Trump’ theory.
Hillary wont do as well in the Southern states as George seems to think, due to her “bring them all in” stance on illegal immigration, her Gun Control position is only going to give her the radical left and it’s going to hurt here with all other voters, Benghazi still rankles with pro-military Southerners and with her having been part of the Obama administration, that’s all going to hurt her. Hillary also isn’t likeable and no one honestly trusts her. Women are not going to vote with their vaginas this election and she’s a “business as usual” establishment candidate and the majority of the public are in an anti-establishment mood. The only thing Hillary has going for her is the radical left and many of them may not vote for her because she isn’t radical enough for them.
I see economics and jobs as the main driving factor in this election. That doesn’t bode well for Hillary and her globalist – more joblessness machine. Trump has received far more minority votes that anyone expected, bringing more minorities to supporting the GOP that their pandering ever has, and His “bring the jobs back” message is reverberating among rank and file union members.. Trump’s promises of more jobs and returning the rule of law regarding illegal immigration is going to win the election for him. I leave you with this:
Democratic strategist Dave “Mudcat” Saunders believes Donald Trump will beat Hillary Clinton like a “baby seal,”
@Ditto: Do not concur—-Trump will receive less than 20% of minority vote–about 19% of the electorate–his crass bombastic demeanor will turn off a majority of female voters–let’s give him a generous 42% of 52-53% demographic.
25% Bernie voters to Trump?—didn’t happen with Sarah to Mac–won’t happen here. HRC squeaks out an E.C win with 2 million+ vote
Thune of S.D will be Trump’s V.P–Warner of Va. critical Veep for HRC.
Kasich/ Rubio would beat HRC—Indiana a statistical dead heat–Cruz win continues the race till Cal where Trump currently leads by 20%+–GOTTA LOVE IT. Fat Lady has not yet sung.-
USMC General Mattis—your country needs you—Semper Fi-
@Richard Wheeler:
I don’t care if you concur or not. Trump is no less bombastic or pompous in mannerisms than that cackling harpy Hillary.
That’s what Bernie voters said when polled. Take it up with them. His supporters are not my monkey, not my circus.
@Ditto: Cackling Harpy Hillary…..that’s ‘shouting cackling harpy Hillary’
@Redteam:
True that, although I’m certain the two of us could go for hours on end adding to the long list of derogatory adjectives to describe Hillary.
Exclusive — CLINTON CRASH: Hillary Has Received Hundreds of Thousands Fewer Votes in 2016 vs. 2008
Commentary: Yes, Donald Trump can beat Hillary Clinton
Head to head polls in the past have indeed proved unreliable, most famously the one that showed Reagan didn’t have a chance against Carter.
And that is a big part of Trump’s appeal, he is centrist but anti-establishment. In this election season, those two together make him a much more attractive candidate to the general public than being of the less supported far left or right or left wing extreme of the two “major” parties. Obama and the radical left wing controlled Democrat party (with the consent of the propaganda spewing MSM,) have done everything possible to shove this nation as far left as possible. This is something that neither right wing nor moderate voters approve of, and typically when the nation is shoved too far right or left, the majority of the voters wake-up and try to compensate to right the balance.
This admittedly leftist author (Will Rahn,) again makes the same false, bullcrap claim about “Americans” not liking immigration. The truth is we have no problem with lawful immigrants that are properly vetted and follow the legal process. It’s illegal immigrants and their effect on our society and economy that the majority does not “like.” This lawful position that every nation has a right to control immigration is something US citizens have in common with ALL nations. It is not racist, it’s rule of law.
@Ditto #21:
Doesn’t this WORRY you? I keep being told that the REAL reason Obama got elected TWICE was that Republicans FAILED to nominate a “true” conservative, instead opting for “GOP-Lite” or RINO candidates that were offered up as being “electable”, but who could not credibly represent the GOP’s conservative vision of America. In 2008, Romney beat back the candidacies of much more socially and economically conservative contenders, and as a result, there wasn’t a true, dyed-in-the-wool conservative running for the presidency that year. And if Trump gets the nomination this time around, the same will be true.
Romney wasn’t a television celebrity, and Trump IS, but that difference is offset by the fact that Romney at least walked a rational, moderately conservative path through the political landscape, whereas Trump bounces on his ideological Pogo Stick all over the political map, flirting one day with liberal positions he is at war with the next.
Every election is a new one, and the lessons seemingly learned from the past election fall by the wayside as irrelevant more often than not. Blacks and Hispanics and women do TEND to vote toward the Democratic side, but they are inconsistent from one election to the next, as they become more or less excited by specific candidates. I can think of a lot of reasons why Trump won’t attract these demographics, and I can also think of reasons why Clinton won’t excite them either. But to frame a prediction on an apples-to-oranges comparison of these two candidates is folly if for no better reason than that there remain six months BEFORE the election, and it is in that last period when most voters will decide. Even the current polls tell you almost nothing, the ones taken in the week preceding the vote being to only ones that can really hint at the outcome.
But do amuse yourself in the meantime. Talk it up, and, like someone who has purchased a lottery ticket, delight yourself in fantasizing how it will be if your candidate wins in November. But be advised: No matter WHO wins, it won’t be as good as you OR I hope, because whoever gets the job, they’ll have to preside over the ENTIRE nation, not just one party, and they’ll have a dysfunctional Congress to deal with. No measure of business acumen or feminine wile can overcome THAT drag.