As most everyone knows by now a very important Shiite Mosque in Iraq was blown up by terrorists:
Thousands of Shiites took to the streets across Iraq in a second day of protests against the insurgent attack in Samarra, which destroyed the golden dome of the Al Askariya shrine, the burial place of two revered Shiite imams.
The media has been quite shrill in it’s attempt to label this the start of a civil war:
The attack on the shrine has sparked the worst sectarian conflict in Iraq since the American invasion, with Iraqi leaders and clerics calling for restraint and trying to steer the country away from exploding into full-fledged civil war. The top American military commanders and the American ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, have been talking with Iraqi leaders to try to defuse the groundswell of anger among Sunni and Shiite Arabs.
While the area is quite tense, as is to be expected, with reports of 80+ people dead: (Iraq The Model)
Radio Sawa reported a short while ago that the central morgue in Baghdad received some 80 bodies of people who were killed with gun shots since Wednesday afternoon.
In our neighborhood the Sadr militias seized the local mosque and broadcast Shia religious mourning songs from the mosques loudspeakers.
In several other cases, worshippers were turned away by “gunmen in black” who surrounded the closed mosques. Other mosques are encircled by razor-wire to stop anyone from approaching them.
There have also been many calls for calm:
Sistani has been calling for restraint and calm but it seems that some Shia factions are not listening to him but instead they are listening to their direct references or acting on their own.
Spokesmen of the Islamic Party and Muslim Scholars claim more than 120 mosques have been blown up, set ablaze or came under small arms and RPG fire including the Um al-Qura mosque which is the HQ of the Association of Muslim Scholars which came under several drive-by shootings.
[…]The sense in the streets and the statements given by some Shia clerics suggest that retaliation attacks are organized and under control and are focusing on mosques frequented by Salafi and Wahabi groups and not those of ordinary Sunnis.
Looking at the geographic distribution of the attacked mosques, I found they were mostly in areas adjacent to Sadr city forming a line that extends from the New Baghdad district in the southeast to al-Hussayniya in the northeast.
The Association of Muslim Scholars is accusing the Sadrists in particular, actually it’s not only the Association that accuses the Sadrists, most people here in Baghdad point out the role of Mehdi army of Sadr in carrying out most of the attacks.
The Sunni political leaders were invited to a meeting with the UIA suggested by president Talabani but they refused to join the meeting saying the government has to condemn attacks on their mosques as well before they consider ending the boycott.
Talabani responded positively to their demand and gave a short statement to the press half an hour ago and condemned all attacks on worshipping places of all kinds.The situation is still very tense but the good thing is that the Sunni have not returned the attacks and I hope the Shia have satisfied their vengeance by now because I don’t want to even think of what can happen if this situation lasts longer than this.
So while the situation is precarious I would not call this the start of a civil war. Bill at the Fourth Rail lays it all out:
The following list contains the main lead indicators a full scale civil War in Iraq is underway:
- The Shiite United Iraqi Alliance no longer seeks to form a unity government and marginalize the Shiite political blocks.
- Sunni political parties withdraw from the political process.
- Kurds make hard push for independence/full autonomy.
- Grand Ayatollah Sistani ceases calls for calm, no longer takes a lead role in brokering peace.
- Muqtada al-Sadr becomes a leading voice in Shiite politics.
- Major political figures – Shiite and Sunni – openly call for retaliation.
- The Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party and Muslim Scholars Association openly call for the formation of Sunni militias.
- Interior Ministry ceases any investigations into torture and death squads, including the case against recently uncovered problems with the Highway Patrol. ? Defense Minister Dulaimi (a Sunni) is asked to step down from his post.
- Iraqi Security Forces begins severing ties with the Coalition, including:
- Disembeddeding the Military Transition Teams
- Requests U.S. forces to vacate Forward Operating Bases / Battle Positions in Western and Northern Iraq.
- Alienates Coalition at training academies.
- Iraqi Security Forces make no effort to quell violence or provide security in Sunni neighborhoods.
- Iraqi Security Forces actively participate in attacks on Sunnis, with the direction of senior leaders in the ministries of Defense or Interior.
- Shiite militias are fully mobilized, with the assistance of the government, and deployed to strike at Sunni targets. Or, the Shiite militias are fully incorporated into the Iraqi Security Forces without certification from Coalition trainers.
- Sunni military officers are dismissed en masse from the Iraqi Army.
- Kurdish officers and soldiers leave their posts and return to Kurdistan, and reform into Peshmerga units.
- Attacks against other religious shrines escalate, and none of the parties make any pretense about caring.
- Coalition military forces pull back from forward positions to main regional bases.
Iraq has yet to encounter any of the problems stated above. The Sunni led Iraqi Accordance Front has suspended talks to form a government, but have not withdrawn from the political process. The Iraqi Security Forces have taken appropriate measures and suspended all leaves, but there are no indications they are cooperating with militias or abetting the violence in any way.
Of course you knew the madman would step into the fold:
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad blamed the United States and Israel on Thursday for the destruction of a Shiite shrine’s golden dome in Iraq, saying it was the work of “defeated Zionists and occupiers.”
Speaking to a crowd of thousands on a tour of southwestern Iran, the president referred to the destruction of the Askariya mosque dome in Samarra on Wednesday, which the Iraqi government has blamed on insurgents.
“They invade the shrine and bomb there because they oppose God and justice,” Ahmadinejad said, referring to the U.S.-led multinational forces in Iraq.
“These passive activities are the acts of a group of defeated Zionists and occupiers who intended to hit our emotions,” he said in a speech that was broadcast on state television. Addressing the United States, he added: “You have to know that such an act will not save you from the anger of Muslim nations.”
In my opinion this is the grand test for an infant Democracy. Will moderate voices carry enough weight with the Shiite’s? Will the moderate voices on the Sunni side be listened to when they call for no retaliation for the Sunni deaths? I believe the Iraqi people will pass this test. They have tasted freedom and know that they are precariously close to the edge.
Other’s Blogging:
In my opinion this is the grand test for an infant Democracy. Will moderate voices carry enough weight with the Shiite’s? Will the moderate voices on the Sunni side be listened to when they call for no retaliation for the Sunni deaths? I believe the Iraqi people will pass this test. They have tasted freedom and know that they are precariously close to the edge.
See author page
Curt,
Let’s not go changing the argument. I certainly never claimed the media doesn’t sensationalize. And you showing that they may have, doesn’t mean that Iraq was not (and still remains) dangerously close to civil war. My argument was that a lot of people on the right (yourself included) are trying to say that this whole idea of a potential civil war is being fabricated by the media. And my quote of the Iraq defense minister (above) and the American ambassador to Iraq (below) won’t change that for you. Clearly, you and yours are the ones who need a dose of reality.
Now here’s the quote from the ambassador:
“Everyone believes that the prospect for a civil war has diminished significantly over the past several days,” said Zalmay Khalilzad, the American ambassador to Iraq, in remarks to reporters before attending the meeting. “All the mainstream leaders of Iraq believe that civil war must be avoided. It’s very positive that they are all saying it.”
Yes, the left is foaming at the mouth -to get out of Iraq firstwe’re defeatists who mamby-pambypacifisism will leave the US vunerable, then we’re foaming at the mouth for more bloodshed-why? We’re not the ones making obscene profits from this war, but say anything it doesn’t make it true and the American people know that.
Next week’s headlines today:
“Disappointed Media Find No Civil War In Iraq Yet”
Bitter Tears of Regret As Chance For All-Out Massacre Fades; Some Jounalists Still Hold Out Hope
MMMMMMMMMMMMM, freedom’s so very very tasty.