I don’t remember the context at all, but I once heard someone put forth a theoretical dilemma… “You have a choice: You can save the world, but the person you loathe most in the world would get credit for it and be hailed as the hero of mankind… or, you can yourself be hailed as the hero of all mankind but in reality do nothing and the world is not saved. Which would you choose?”
That is basically where we stand today in the GOP primary. If it is saving the country that they are interested in rather than personal glory, the three guys who come in last in South Carolina tomorrow would drop out of the race and the fourth guy might consider it too if he doesn’t pull at least 10%. Why? Because, unless Donald Trump dies of a heart attack, those guys simply aren’t going to win. The fact of the matter is, in a six man race, a five man race, a four man race, and probably a three man race, Donald Trump will win and become the GOP nominee. It’s simply a game of numbers. Trump is leading in South Carolina and the opposition is divided five ways. This is like that cartoon where the bear is chasing two guys in the woods… one guy says to the other “We can’t outrun him” and the other guy says “I don’t have to out run him, I just have to outrun you!” Donald Trump doesn’t ever have to get above 50% to win the nomination. All he has to do is get more votes than any one of the other five guys most of the time and the nomination is his. Sixty five percent of the GOP don’t want Donald Trump, but as long as the opposition is fractured, he wins.
Sure, you can say we’re only two states into this thing, but the writing is on the wall. In New Hampshire Donald Trump came out as part of the progressive “Bush Lied, Soldiers Died” camp. He came out as a fan of Planned Parenthood. He stood up as a big fan of the abuse of imminent domain. He still won and may have even added to his lead in South Carolina. It appears to be the case that there is this core of around 30% of the GOP who will vote for Trump regardless of what he does or says. As such, the only way to beat him is to have a race where there are two men facing one another so that voters are forced to choose between Trump and a single actual rival rather than some amalgamation of five guys. One on one Cruz (and maybe Rubio IF he can throw off the immigration yoke he saddled himself with) would shine like a conservative rock star against the liberal, big government Trump. When given a distinct choice of contrast, most conservatives will go with the guy they agree with 90% of the time vs. the guy with whom they agree with maybe 50% of the time. But in a six man race that’s not the choice they have to make.
So, while everyone wants to be the hero who saves the country, the reality is, by staying in the race these laggards are going to be doing exactly the opposite. They are empowering Donald Trump and letting him gain momentum and delegates. Politics is about perception, and the more Donald Trump wins the more Donald Trump is going to be seen as the winner and that becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. If these guys wanted to really help the country rather than dream of themselves as the next “World’s most powerful man”, they’d drop out and become cheerleaders for the guy who comes out of South Carolina as the strongest rival to Donald Trump. At that point they could play kingmakers, they could vie for the VP slot, and would no doubt put themselves on the short list for secretary positions in a Cruz… or Rubio administration. In a two man race Trump would be toast, in a three man race it would be a real competition… anything else we’re looking at Trump being the last man standing in Cleveland.
Come Sunday morning the also-rans in South Carolina really need to look themselves in the mirror and examine their motivations. Is it the good of the country or their ego that is driving them? What they do next will tell us everything we need to know.
See author page
As has been observed elsewhere, the conservative movement in the US is dead. The final nail in the coffin was the election of 2014. That was when the Republicans all ran as “conservatives” and then proceeded to roll over with their paws in the air for Obama. There is nothing left to “conserve”. It is being replaced by a “nationalist” movement who recognize that getting control over who is allowed in (and who is allowed to stay) is the only issue that matters at this moment in time. Although it might be too late even for that.
Look at the long game, Vince.
With 5 or 6 men left in the race there is probably no way Donald Trump can get a clear path to nomination before the convention.
Therefore it will be a brokered convention.
And THEN these men – who you want to drop our now – can horse trade their delegates to a nominee for favors and power in his administration.
So, why on earth would any one of them, all pretty deeply indebted to donor-types, drop out now for nothing?
The ”greater good?”
These guys, so far, have only looked to their own interests. Like when Kasich sold off his super PAC cash to another candidate so anti-Trump ads could be bought.
I agree with Jeb and Ben dropping out but I think we look at it closer after SC primary.
I disagree with Nanny’s analysis. Donald winning adds to his aura. It’s a preference cascade.
Every one of those hangers on will look less and less appealing each primary day. With that happening, Donald garners enough to avoid the brokered convention. And when it gets to ‘winner take all’ time in the primaries, that’s when Donald really cleans up in the delegate count to assure that.
@Nanny G:
I agree with your analysis. These are politicians. They are all in it for themselves and none will drop out until it becomes apparent that they are going to give the election to the Democrats. I think they already have, but they are in denial.
https://tonyplank.wordpress.com/
Go Trump!
Questions:
Does Dope Francis’ entering the political arena in criticizing Donald Trump and his proposed wall mean the Catholic Church loses its tax-exempt status? Yes.
Does Dope Francis go home to the Vatican to tear down his walls that completely surround the Vatican for security and safety and keep EVERYONE out?
Do even more Catholics lose faith in Dope Francis now that he seems to be in favor of birth control?
Also, tell Bernie to go pound sand. The Democrats do not have a viable candidate this year. Too bad.
Communist Bernie Sanders is a leading loser called Bernie Stalin of killer fame.
Tell everyone, including KIDS, to not confuse SOCIAL MEDIA with SOCIALISM or COMMUNISM. The latter two are deadly. Read your history books and about the cold war on SOCIALISM. Social Media is a function for communication and not a political construct.
Obama won’t attend the funeral for Justice Antonin Scalia but will go to Cuba next month to visit the communists there and Obama rubs elbows with the Black Panthers and the blacks of the Black Lives Mater group.
When Hillary Clinton was asked recently if she tells the truth she said she almost always tries to tell the truth. This was an example of the fact that she doesn’t always tell the truth. And she didn’t.
Go Trump! Oops, President Trump. Yeah.
I share your misgivings about Trump and would back Cruz (my preferred candidate) against him right down the line. But I will not, under any circumstances, back Rubio.
Rubio, though more viable than Jeb, is just as much the candidate of the Republican Establishment. In my opinion it is even more important to defeat the GOPe in this race than it is to defeat the Democrats. The parasites running the GOP have to be made to understand that pandering to us at election time and then cozying up to Obama, Pelosi and Reid once they’re in office is a model that we will no longer tolerate. The way the establishment has conducted its business this last 20 years we’ve had de facto one-party government and it cannot be allowed to continue.
The existing establishment needs to be uprooted and cast aside. If doing so means nominating Donald Trump then so be it.
@Mack Bonham:
“Republican Establishment” is an oxymoron.
https://tonyplank.wordpress.com/
I agree with Vince. The sooner this gets down to a 2 or 3 person race the better. This of course doesn’t prevent the possibility of a three person race for POTUS- Democrat, Republican, and Independent with Trump and one of the other Republicans filling the latter two positions. Who fills which one will be determined by who gets the Republican nomination.
It is more likely that Bloomberg will fill that Independent slot. Personally, I’m hoping for a Trump v. Sanders v. Bloomberg race: watching Two-party Hall collapse will be fun! Pop some popcorn and enjoy the show!
https://tonyplank.wordpress.com/
Say hello to NOMINEE Trump not President Trump.
@Tony Plank: Bloomberg is a possibility as well. I think on the Republican side if Trump wins the nomination it’ll be with far less than 50% support and thus one of the other Republicans will run as an Independent. He’ll do so to “save the party”. On the other hand, if Trump doesn’t win, I wouldn’t put it past him running as an Indie. If nothing else and there are four candidates 1 (D), 1 (R), and 2 (I’s), hopefully both parties will get the message and wake the hell up.
@another vet:
I hope it happens like that, but my instinct is that this is not the year. Hillary will get the Democratic nomination and Trump or Cruz the GOP. Bloomberg will decide its not the right time. So, we will get four years of gridlock…similar to the last 40 years. But outrage is increasing and I do think that 2020 might be the year where the fundamental landscape finally changes.
But, my predictions are worth less than most…
https://tonyplank.wordpress.com/
@Tony Plank: We are overdue for a one term President so perhaps not.
How long have we waited for what has already been approved years ago: a border wall complete with armed guards.
How long have we waited for a balanced budget and forced cutbacks on those who freely feed at the government trough.
How long have we waited to dump Obamacare? And, speaking of stall tactics, Harry Reid for years has intentionally blocked legislation he didn’t care for. So, why not block all of Obama’s appointees to the Supreme Court. We can wait until after the election.
Trump is what the people want? let them have Trump. Not connected with D.C. money and influence. We all need to work to make America great again!
I think it’s a pretty safe bet that when (not if) Jeb drops out, having trashed and been trashed by both Trump and Rubio, his voters go to Cruz,.
Too many Carson supporters are buying into the ‘Cruz done you wrong in Iowa’ meme, so would probably go to Rubio.
Since I have no idea what really motivates the Kasich voter, I have no prediction where they’d go.
But since Jeb has more support than Carson or Kasich, Cruz would seem to be the biggest beneficiary of culling the herd.
If Trump gets the nom. the Repub. Party is dead—I don’t think the still powerful party bosses will let it happen–They’ll take it from him at or before the Convention–he’ll be furious but somewhere in the back of his mind he knew it would happen. He came in as he does every 4 years to stoke his massive ego–even he thought he’d be down in Palm Beach by now.
He lit up the frustrated right wing–fueling his run with fear, hatred and Nationalism. The end is coming for The Donald—only question will he leave with a wimper or a bang.
@Richard Wheeler:
Indeed!
http://tonyplank.wordpress.com
@Mike:
Your logic is impeccable.
Which is why those other candidates will not drop out before the convention.
They do NOT want ”the people” deciding where their support will go.
They want to be the deciders.
The only way to do that is for them to wait until the Convention.
Then THEY get to throw their support (whatever there is of it) to whomever promises him the most power or best position in the new Administration.
The whole delegate thing is less democratic and more power-broker.
And the super delegate thing adds to the lack of ”the people” having much of any say in the process.
There is very little chance any one candidate will garner enough delegates to prevent this brokered convention.
And the powers in the GOPe want Bush or Rubio.
So, Bush or Rubio will get the nod.
@Nanny G: Impeccable?? Mike says Bush, Kasich and Carson will drop before the convention. You say Bush and Kasich, Rubio and Cruz will remain. With a brokered convention giving the nom to Bush or Rubio.
What’s certain—Carson will drop out soon. Bush (most likely) or Rubio will drop after Florida. Kasich needs to make a strong–no worse than 2nd–statement in northern primaries to raise monies and continue to Convention–longshot but possible. Cruz needs to get some wins in these Southern primaries to maintain viability.He won’t do well in the North.
Trump will grind along as front runner picking up delegates while making more enemies as he goes.
Final results?? Stay tuned
@Bruce Fauth: We can only hope so. Good analysis.
So, Bush quit.
What kind of face will he be making as he tells his supporters he wants them to support Rubio?
Kind of like this:
In Bush’s defense, I imagine he owes certain donors tens of millions of dollars each.
He probably traded his leaving and supporting Rubio as a means to avoid having his legs broken.
I never saw a man (out of office) run through so much of other people’s money to such a pitiful result.
@Nanny G: I just think that the country was not ready for a president that had clearly declared he would open the borders. Compare that position to the one of Trump where he will build a stronger fence. Which do you think the country desires. Bush found out and Bush dropped out.
@Redteam: This isn’t over–yet
Haley’s endorsement pushed Rubio in front of Cruz for 2nd–Their total beat Trump.by double digits. However, neither will drop anytime soon. Trump will continue to grind. Cruz will continue to question The Donald’s Conservative cred. Rubio will look to grab Bush support and eventually Kasich.
If Conservatives eventually move away from the atheist/agnostic gay rights supporter to Cruz and a lesser extent Rubio—a big if–the race will go to the Convention with no clear leader.
I’m still predicting an unbeatable Rubio Fl Kasich Oh ticket
Raw numbers of voters….in that you are correct, their total was more than Donald Trump’s:
President GOP – SC Primary 2239 of 2239 Precincts Reporting
Donald Trump 239,851
Marco Rubio 165,881
Ted Cruz 164,790
However…..
What was the delegate count?
South Carolina has 50 delegates.
Trump 50
Rubio 0
Cruz 0
The current delegate count:
Now, there is such a thing as ”superdelegates.”
So, IF Trump doesn’t trounce other candidates in early primaries he MIGHT lose to a lesser winning candidate who collects most all those.
BUT, if Trump looks like a landslide, many superdelegates will side with a winner.
So, time will tell on that front of this war.
Edited to add one more idea:
Kasich is not even on all of the upcoming state’s ballots, so his supporters will have to find a home elsewhere.
Of all the candidates’ supporters, it is the Cruz supporters who are most likely to STAY HOME if their candidate doesn’t do well.
Cruz voters are emotionally driven by social issues.
Rubio doesn’t gain Cruz voters. Mostly they pick up their marbles and go home.
But what Rubio does have, and look for it, is the GOPe and Bush’s PACs to do his dirty work for him.
Watch for anti-Trump spots paid for by PACs nobody’s heard of.
@Richard Wheeler:
Yes, he is the darling of the National Dimocratic Socialists. Kasich is not really on anyone’s agenda, well, except you, anymore. Tell us again why you support the ‘open borders’ crowd.
Wasn’t the count, 50 Trump, 0 Cruz, 0 Rubio? Double digits? yeah about 50 of them.
@Nanny G: Jeb’s time was 2012. He waited and lost.
@john: Yup. Nominee…and them President. Glad you understand the progression, son.
@Richard Wheeler: The end is, indeed, coming for the Donald…when he has to move his sh*t out of the Oval Office in 2025.
As Winston Churchill observed (I paraphrase) ‘ If you doubt the veracity of democracy, simply have a five minute conversation with the average voter.’
To which I ponder two words to describe the average voter: Quite Stupid.
It appears as though the jurist on the O.J Simpson panel have dispersed and multiplied. And the world applauds.
@Robert What?:
The Democrat and Republican parties are like the two worse
Dreamnightmare -teams possible in the crappiest political bush-league tournament. We are all left holding our very expensive and worthless season tickets. With biased referees, Venereal-diseased and contagious cheerleaders shrilly rooting for themselves, Mad-hatter announcers blather and foam at the mouth, All while the recessions franchise-holders are independently bribing the players of both teams to take a dive “but make it look good.”Me? I’m heading to the tailgate party.