Ted Cruz Has a 15:1 Advantage Over Jeb Bush With Conservatives… And Why the Establishment Should Care

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It’s sometimes said that you can tell a lot about a person by the friends they keep. That makes sense. Friendships are generally based on complementary personalities, shared values, and a variety of intangibles that cause people to bond.

Money in politics is a similar barometer. The vast majority of Americans never donate any money to politicians or get involved in politics at all. For all of the kvetching about money in politics, there’s really not that much there. In 2012 a total of $6 billion was spent on politics. That includes spending by campaigns, outside groups, and independent organizations. To put that in perspective, Americans spend almost twice that amount on bottled water each year, five times as much at McDonalds and twelve times that on the lottery.

In addition, it’s only a small minority of Americans who donate to political campaigns at all, about 11% on average. Eleven percent sounds low, but that’s actually enormous when compared to the .05% of donors who provide $2.7 billion of that $6 billion by making contributions of $2,600 or more. Talk about “The 1%”! Campaigns seem to be funded largely from “The .05%”. Here’s the breakdown: 89% of Americans give $0 dollars to campaigns, 10.5% give a total of $3.3 billion, while .05% of the population give the other $2.7 billion. That means that a total of about 15,000 people are responsible for almost half the money spent on our elections… out of 315 million people.

Although the money is relatively evenly distributed between the parties, within the GOP there is an interesting dichotomy. Jeb Bush and [mc_name name=’Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’C001098′ ], who raised similar amounts in the June 15 to June 30 period – $11.4 million and $10 million respectively – make for a good illustration. When Bush released his fundraising numbers, they showed that 97% of his money came from donors who gave more than $200. For Cruz that number was 61%. More interesting however are the average numbers. Overall, Bush had a total of 12,334 donors who gave an average of $926. At the same time Cruz had a total of 175,000 donors who gave an average of $81. Cruz had fifteen times as many donors but raised $1.4 million less!

This is not a screed against the rich. Rich people are often successful businessmen and that’s something we could use more of. What we don’t need more of however is crony capitalism. And that’s what makes these reports so compelling. They came out just a week before a report that the Chamber of Commerce, the shill for big corporations, is planning on targeting small government conservatives in the House, many of whom are strong Cruz allies. Their goal is to derail true border control, maintain the Export Import Bank and harness government to shield big businesses from competition whenever possible.

This of course shines an illuminating light on the Bush / Cruz numbers. Cruz is very much a phenomenon of the Tea Party movement. Against crony capitalism, against illegal immigration, against big government, and stridently so, he has animated grassroots conservatives in a way no one has in decades. (Or at least he had until the Trump earthquake came along… even if Trump is not really a conservative.) This is illustrated by the fact that 175,000 people donated to his campaign in its first two weeks. Bush on the other not only supports comprehensive immigration reform (which basically means no wall, no reform plus amnesty to boot) but shows his big government bona fides by seeking to foist the dysfunctional Common Core on the country. Both of those issues are anathema to conservatives and as a result, Bush has attracted very little in the way of grass roots support. He has however gained the support of the K Street mafia, the GOP establishment and their Chamber of Commerce enablers.

Of course there’s a long way to go and there are other candidates in the field, but it’s telling that there is such a stark contrast between what are the left and right wings of the party. While money may make up a big part of politics, success comes from getting people out of their chairs and into the voting booths. The GOP should take notice of the fact that small donor conservatives have broken 15 to 1 for Cruz against Bush. While that might not mean much in terms of money, on November 8th of next year it will be critical. After having been steamrolled by the establishment during the last two elections and seeing the resulting candidates go down in flames, conservatives may just decide to sit 2016 out if the party nominates another milquetoast candidate whose focus is on keeping the Chamber happy rather than working to shrink government and get it out of the big business business. Such as desertion just might be fatal for the GOP as it would likely lead to three consecutive losses, the first time that’s happened since FDR.  With two viable parties a third party stands little chance in American politics, however with a feeble party unable to win the big prize, the prospects for one are greatly enhanced.  That’s something the GOP establishment just might want to ponder as they seek to hand the nomination to another Bush.

The product of a military family, growing up in Naples, Italy and Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and being stationed in Germany for two years while in the Army, Vince spent half of his first quarter century seeing the US from outside of its own borders. That perspective, along with a French wife and two decades as a struggling entrepreneur have only fueled an appreciation for freedom and the fundamental greatness of the gifts our forefathers left us.

45 Responses to “Ted Cruz Has a 15:1 Advantage Over Jeb Bush With Conservatives… And Why the Establishment Should Care”

  1. 1

    bwax

    This includes me. After equivocating for several months about my best choice for President, Cruz hit a real nerve last week on the Limbaugh show. I believe what he says is very true, that the ‘ins’ will do and say whatever they need to do just to stay in power, and that especially includes Boehner & McConnell. They are both Republicans in name only.
    We need term limits badly to keep reins on our elected representatives, and we need a flat tax with NO deductions for anyone or any entity. It’s time to get congress out of the business of selecting winners and losers via the tax code.

  2. 2

    Nanny G

    One of the things these well-connected, but detached would-be nominees forget is that each donor can only vote once no matter how much he gives.

  3. 4

    Pete

    Cruz has the strength of principle to stand up and call McConnell out for his lying on the senate floor, knowing full well the RINOs will do everything they can to come after him.

    We don’t need more slimey, spineless, greedy politicians who go along to get along. We need men and women of character, who willingly stand up to the evil left. Cruz and Fiorina have been especially impressive in dealing with press ambushes over the last few months.

    Don’t give money to the GOP. Donate SPECIFICALLY to those candidates whose positions and actions are in line with your core beliefs. When the RINOs contact you for donations, bluntly tell them that if you wanted to support Obama and the left’s destruction of America, you would donate to the DNC, rather than waste time giving to the GOP “leadership”.

  4. 6

    Bill

    Conservatives are going to have to accept the fact that there isn’t another Ronald Reagan just around the corner. While ANY Republican would be better for the country than Hillary, we will have to first get a Republican in the White House with a Republican Congress. Then, the damage of the 8 years of Obama has to be repaired and good things done for the economy (while rebuilding US strength abroad and fighting back challenges to our weakened condition). While Cruz would be a good start, that probably won’t happen. We will have to get more conservative gradually and that only by enacting lasting improvements and benefits for the nation’s health.

    Being unhappy and pouting about the Republican candidate and staying home and not voting will be disastrous. The nation cannot stand another 4 or 8 years of abject failure.

  5. 7

    Greg

    Then, the damage of the 8 years of Obama has to be repaired and good things done for the economy (while rebuilding US strength abroad and fighting back challenges to our weakened condition).

    Republicans have had majorities in both the House and Senate for 7 months now and have yet to do anything constructive. Why would anyone wish to empower this governmental dysfunction even more? The GOP is internally conflicted on virtually every important national issue. The only thing that lends them an illusion of solidarity is their collective dislike of Barack Obama and other democrats. This is the reason they avoid any and all discussion of specific policy details. It’s why they wouldn’t allow a floor debate even of so important a matter as authorization for the use of military force against ISIS.

    Republicans have created a Congress that no longer works; a Congress that spends most of its time and energy trying to figure out how to keep another branch of government from working as well.

  6. 8

    Common Sense

    Greggie, that solidarity is needed to stop the main destroyer of our country. Glad you recognize it, sadly you don’t recognize the need!!

  7. 9

    Bill

    @Greg: So you want to expect Republicans to repair an economy that has been lethargic for 7 years and with layer upon layer of strangling regulations slathered on… in 7 months? Really?

    The damage you liberals have wrought will take decades to correct and it can’t be done with Obama EOing more damage daily. Get real, Greg.

  8. 10

    Rich Wheeler

    @Bill: Well said. Ronald Reagan loved his NavSec , Navy Cross recipient, Captain Jim Webb USMC.
    Webb will show the videos of RR praising him,if he gets the nom. As it was for BHO, it’s gonna be harder for Webb to beat the Clintons than the Repub. nom.

  9. 11

    Greg

    @Bill, #9:

    So you want to expect Republicans to repair an economy that has been lethargic for 7 years and with layer upon layer of strangling regulations slathered on… in 7 months? Really?

    The present republican-majority Congress couldn’t repair a broken doorstop. They can’t even address problems with legislation that they can agree on among themselves.

    What tells me this is that problems are glaringly apparent, but no legislation is forthcoming. Obama isn’t stopping them from writing bills. There aren’t even any detailed proposals being talked about. Details and specifics regarding anything seem to be radioactive.

  10. 12

    Bill

    @Greg: Again, you imagine that a slight majority of Republicans in Congress with Obama still in the White House can reverse the level of F-eduptitude you liberals have left the country in? It will take decades of concerted work and, of course, liberals will be there to kill progress every step of the way. Just as Reid and Obama did with the Republican House.

    They also have to deal with the worst bit of foreign policy since “Peace In Our Time” and with the wreckage Obamacare is leaving. Obama claimed he (He) would turn the economy around in 3 years and unemployment would never top 7.9% when he had full control of all of Congress; where’s your complaining about THAT utter failure?

    Liberalism fails and, with the concentrated dose we have had for the past 7 years, it does extensive damage as well. If you don’t like the harm it does, stop voting for it.

  11. 14

    Greg

    Again, you imagine that a slight majority of Republicans in Congress with Obama still in the White House can reverse the level of F-eduptitude you liberals have left the country in?

    Republican majorities in both Houses means that democrats can’t stop them from creating and introducing bills that provide a detailed picture of specifically what changes they intend to make.

    But they’re not doing that, are they? They’re not even talking about specifics and details. In fact, they shut down any possibilities of detailed discussion. Detailed discussion would quickly reveal that they not only haven’t got an internal consensus; they haven’t got a clue how to reach one.

    You have elected a passel of political hucksters and frauds. If it weren’t for the Executive Branch being under Democratic control, the United States government wouldn’t be governing at all.

  12. 15

    Pete

    @rich wheeler:

    And yet you ignore the point in the original post regarding the donatio s Cruz is getting. Sure, Cruz is listed as polling only 6% in some polls, yet he is garnishing donations almost as much as Jeb, but from a larger total number of donors. The campaign is in the embryonic stage at this point. Neither Cruz nor Fiorina are getting the level of coverage that Jeb is getting now. That should change as the campaign moves forward, even with the media trying its best to ignore the non-RINO candidates.

  13. 16

    Ditto

    contributor

    @Rich Wheeler:

    The Jim Webb of the 1980’s is not the turncoat Jim Webb of today; who has rubber-stamped every socialist scheme Pelosi and Reid cooked up.

    Rich, you are obsessed with a man who can’t even get over his average of 1% support amongst Democrats.

  14. 18

    Rich Wheeler

    @Pete: Is the media ignoring Trump? Is he a RINO? looking forward to Cruz squaring up with Trump. I expect the Donald will begin to fade after the debate—see him running 3d Party (wishful thinking?)

    Ditto Was Dem Reagan a turncoat? How bout Trump—he donated big bucks to his buddy Reid when he was a registered Dem.

  15. 19

    retire05

    @Rich Wheeler:

    Is the media ignoring Trump?

    What the hell do you care? What is this obsession you have with Donald Trump?

    Hell, Webb can’t even get honorable mention in the left wing rags called newspapers.

  16. 20

    Rich Wheeler

    @retire05: Easy O5 I was responding to Pete
    You and your sidekick RT love to jump into the middle of everything–You both remind me of The Donald in temperment.
    You two sure you haven’t lived in N.Y?

  17. 23

    retire05

    @Rich Wheeler:

    Easy O5 I was responding to Pete

    So? It’s an open forum.

    You and your sidekick RT love to jump into the middle of everything–You both remind me of The Donald in temperment.

    Oh, rules for us that you seem to have no problem violating yourself? How left wing of you. As to my temperament, you are clueless.

    You two sure you haven’t lived in N.Y?

    Never been there. Never wanted to go there. I understand upstate NY is beautiful but the people are nuts and why would I want to be around people who elected those like Comrade de Blasio?

  18. 24

    Matt

    I like the comment the GOP candidates are all losers
    Good hop I may not like everything about every candidate but compared to the Dems they’re rock stars
    Dems have old ugly lying corrupt Hillary
    Old socialist Bernie Sanders
    Old Jim Webb the turncoat
    Old idiot Joe Biden the gift that keeps on giving if he decides to run
    Old idiot lying traitor John Kerry who got a Purple Heart for mortaring his own dumb ass
    The word is old
    Nobody in the bullpen and they all have tons of unpopular baggage
    If you think the dems aren’t worried about the youth and Latino demographics and recently the Jewish one your in denial
    Almost all of the GOP are younger and fresher

  19. 26

    Matt

    @Greg:
    Yes the race is over
    Her unfavorable are through the roof and any polls on the field of 16 right now are irrelevant
    The swing state polls have her losing so spin all ya want
    It isn’t gonna matter

  20. 27

    Nanny G

    Note that the minorities are starting to realize Obama won’t be president much longer.
    Who do THEY want?
    An Old White man (or woman?)
    Or perhaps an Indian whose family hailed from India.
    Or maybe a black man who has been a top doctor in his field.
    Maybe an Hispanic, or a man who is married to an Hispanic.
    Maybe a man (or woman) who actually has run a business (or more) successfully.
    Maybe a younger man or woman.

    Here’s a cute (but dirty) video of a couple of black ladies who are for Trump.

  21. 28

    Wade E

    As has been said, Ted Cruz is consistent in his message. The Republican Party needs to nominate him as their candidate in 2016. Then, we all need to work to get people to the polls to elect him!

  22. 29

    Bill

    @Greg: How about Hellary’s performance yesterday when asked about the Keystone? She can’t even take a position she has already had!! She tells her supporters, “I’ll tell you what I think after you elect me.” All who would still vote for her would be easily identifiable mental defectives that should, at the very least, lose their privilege to operate a motor vehicle; they are a danger to themselves and others.

    How can any thinking person support her, Greg? Please ask one and report back.

  23. 30

    Bill

    @John:

    The GOP congress has a 15% approval rating

    Well, waddaya know? Up from 13% when liberals had Congress!!

    Cruz wasn’t born in the USA he was born in Kenyada
    He can’t be POTUS

    Racist.

  24. 31

    Greg

    @Matt:

    Perhaps an explanation is needed concerning what the two links in post #25 mean. The meaning is both simple and surprising:

    The guy currently most favored as the 2016 republican candidate is also the guy most likely to loose the election to Hillary Clinton.

    If Trump doesn’t go away the GOP is going to have a serious problem. Somehow they’ll have to buy him off with an appeal to his vanity. Possibly a opportunity to speak at the Republican national convention might do it, but that could be extraordinarily dangerous. If they run him off, a third party bid could spell their doom.

    They’re probably hoping he self-destructs by way of some blunder before they’re confronted with such a choice.

  25. 32

    Nanny G

    Hillary would lose for the presidency against three leading Republican hopefuls if the election were held today in three key swing states, according to a new poll.
    A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday found that Clinton has strikingly negative favorability ratings among voters in Virginia, Iowa and Colorado.
    Those three states have an outsize say in who wins the White House next year.
    In matchups with Bush, Walker and Rubio, Clinton would lose by as many as 9 points in Colorado and Iowa. In Virginia Clinton would be defeated by those Republicans by only 2 or 3 percentage points.

    Her favorability ratings are upside down in all three states:
    In Colorado: 35 percent favorable to 56 percent unfavorable;
    in Iowa: 33 percent to 56 percent unfavorable; and
    in Virginia: 41 percent to 50 percent unfavorable .

    Biden does well in all three swing states, but he has not said whether he will run.

  26. 33

    thejustavenger

    @rich wheeler: I remember the field running for the Senate seat vacated by Kay Bailey Hutchinson, she was a RINO. The heir apparent was a man named David Dewhurst, Lt. Governor of Texas. Big CoC money backing him, extra RINOS running as fake conservatives to steal votes and separate consrrvatives. This fellow Cruz did pretty much what he is still doing today, calling out the good Ole boy establishment. He made it to the run off election and trounced Dewhurst by a landslide. I’m a Texas election official, and I worked the polls that run off. I had a man drive from Dallas to Houston were he was registered 250 miles, 4 1/2 hours just to vote for Rafael Cruz. Dude is special, a businessman, a lawyer in charge of litigation for the State of Texas. I don’t know if he can with stand the State Run Propaganda Media machine and the uni party onslaught but I’m voting for him again. He is the real deal, and he believes in the Constitution and America. Whatever flaws he has being a sell out RINO is not one of them.

  27. 34

    Rich Wheeler

    @thejustavenger: There is no doubt that Trump is a faux Conservative. If given the opportunity Cruz can annihilate him in a debate. Bush looks worse every day. He’ll probably lose N.H which will finish him off. Walker needs to do more to distinquish himself—needs to hold lead in Iowa. My dark horse and a guy I could vote for is Kasich—he’s polling 3rd in N.H. He’s got home field advantage in tonight’s debate.
    Cruz has to hang tough ,finish no worse than 2nd in S.C. and N.C. 3rd in Fla. and get the win in Tex. Doubt if he can.
    I believe he’s the best man to send loud mouth Trump and supporters like Palin back home to NYC and Wasillia.

  28. 35

    George Wells

    @Rich Wheeler:

    Has anyone figured out how to squeeze a victory in 2016 out of the warring factions of the Republican Party?
    With single digits of support, where is Cruz going?
    For that matter, how can ANY candidate and/or ANY faction of the GOP win without forging an alliance with enough OTHER conservative factions to overcome what the Democrats have put together.

  29. 37

    Skookum

    About the reliability of these polls, I travel over 8 states and I have yet to meet a voter who supports Bush. My question is, how does he occupy second place in the polls with any support in the grass roots?

    In fact, I have asked many other people and they admit they have never met someone who supports Jeb. This is a curious situation; since you can find someone who is a die hard supporter of everyone else, no matter if they are having trouble registering 1%, they have supporters out there in the country. How does a man with such a solid backing, not have support in the country?

    It may be conjecture, but I am wondering. if Jeb and Hillary both share the same mega-donors, are they sharing the respondents for the polls? Are the Republican respondents actually Democrats in drag?

  30. 38

    Rich Wheeler

    @George Wells: It’.s all about the electoral college–A ticket that has Kasich–Ohio and Rubio FL 2 must win states for Repubs has a fighting chance. Right now Rubio has highest positive/negative ratio among Repub. voters.

    Skooks–Bush is a dead man walking.

    Thejustavenger— I understand. She likes Trump better because he’s a brash loud mouth like her. Cruz is a gentleman.

  31. 39

    retire05

    @thejustavenger:

    You do understand that Palin’s endorsement got Cruz his Senate seat.

    You do understand that’s bullshit?

    Sarah Palin flew into The Woodlands, Texas, gave a speech and flew out. Half the state didn’t even know she was supporting Ted Cruz, yet he won.

  32. 40

    George Wells

    @Rich Wheeler #38:

    Electoral college… yeah.
    What did you make of debate #1?
    I thought it went quite well for most.
    Not for Trump, though.
    I can’t imagine his support will survive his attempt to extort the nomination with the threat of running as an independent if he doesn’t get the GOP nod. His balls must be unconscious.
    And you’re correct about Bush – dead candidate walking. What good’s all that money going to do him if he can’t wake anyone up?
    Cruz’s poll numbers will jump.

  33. 41

    Rich Wheeler

    @George Wells: Gave my thoghts in debate posting
    Thoroughly enjoyed it–Dr Carson outstanding Cruz Presidential
    Trump embarrassed himself
    Palin still loves him and will be his veep in 3rd party run.

  34. 42

    Bill

    @George Wells:

    I can’t imagine his support will survive his attempt to extort the nomination with the threat of running as an independent if he doesn’t get the GOP nod. His balls must be unconscious.

    As he explained, he is threatening the GOP not to cut him out of his fair opportunity in the field. However, I don’t like the idea of him running a third party; I doubt he will (if he does, it confirms the Clinton connection) as he makes it clear exactly what that means for the Republicans.

    I too thought he was weak on specifics though he still presented a lot of what he has that appeal to those sick of PC avoidance of honesty. Unfortunate he could not answer the Chris Wallace question of what evidence he had of Mexico sending their criminals into the United States; that should have been easy.

    Carson certainly did not surprise; he continues to show himself as brilliant and unflappable; I would certainly love to see him as a candidate at some time when the media is not running interference for the left.

    All in all, as expected, the entire field of 17 showed they are all more capable than either Obama or whomever the Democrats have to present.

  35. 43

    George Wells

    @Bill #42:

    Carson WAS good, and his finish was excellent. I simply don’t believe that the voters will be ready to elect a second Black man in a row to the presidency… not after Obama. (That remark isn’t racism Retire05, it’s honesty)

    Anyone hoping for Jeb to catch fire must have been sorely disappointed. His brain matches were wet.

    And I agree that the Democratic “debates” are not likely to be as useful OR entertaining. I think that the credit goes in large part to the FOX organization for having developed and executed an event that showcased their candidates in the best light possible – INCLUDING the “gotcha-questions” clearly meant to disable Trump’s candidacy. I actually felt sorry for him, as this was a set-up meant to tell him : “You’re FIRED!”

  36. 44

    Bill

    @George Wells: I agree that the disaster of the Obama Presidency might cause some who place more importance on race to view the failure due to the hue of his skin and this might actually work against a competent black man from become President. Hopefully not.

    If he does not get the nomination, perhaps Carson could be HHS Secretary and get a head start next time.

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