The Conservative victory in the UK augurs well for Republicans in 2016 (Guest Post)

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The British center right party, the Conservatives, won a stunning victory upsetting all predictions of a hung Parliament. This makes the US the exception in the English speaking world of being the only government headed by a leftist, Barack Obama (whom I shall call oBUMa from now on).

John Key (New Zealand), Tony Abbott (Australia), Stephen Harper (Canada) and of course David Cameron (UK) are all leaders of center right parties and Prime Ministers of their countries. Will the growing conservative tide from across the Atlantic surge to the US?

The Conservative victory in the UK was stunning because for months, the Conservative Party and the centre left Labour Party were neck and neck in the polls. What made the victory even more amazing was the strong showing of UKIP, an even more conservative (with a small ‘c’) party which won 12.6% of the votes. If you add that to the Conservative Party’s 36.9%, you get 49.5% of conservative (with a small ‘c’) votes. There are some striking similarities (as well as differences such as gay marriage, which Cameron signed into law) in the politics in both the US and UK. The two most common and burning issues in both countries are:

1) Immigration.

2) The debate about growing the pie vs dividing the pie equally.

1) Immigration

The UK, like the US is awashed with immigrants at a time when a lot of people are not working. * In the US as in the UK, people who objected to unchecked immigration are labelled bigots. In the UK, most of the immigrants are legal  and from other European Union (EU) countries. In the case of the US, the problem is the illegal immigrants coming from Mexico. The Democrats, sensing an opportunity to gain Hispanic votes for decades want to grant them amnesty;

In the UK, the question of immigration is tied up with EU membership which allows untrammeled immigration from EU countries. The anti-immigration party is UKIP which wants to stop immigration by withdrawing from the EU altogether. Many Conservative Members of Parliament (MP) also feel that way and some even defected to the UKIP. Cameron made a last ditch appeal to UKIP supporters to “come home” to the Conservative Party.

They see their country’s traditions and identity being eroded. If you take a ride on the London Underground, you will hear a gaggle of foreign languages ranging from Hindi to Urdu, to Arabic, to Polish, to Greek to Spanish. David Cameron has promised to renegotiate with the EU to allow the UK to control their borders and to hold a referendum on British membership in the EU. In both countries, those who seek to maintain the cultural identity of their country and oppose uncontrolled immigration were accused of bigotry or racism.

2) The debate about growing the economic pie vs dividing the pie equally

Labor, the center left party in the UK, like the Democrats has been banging the drum of class warfare and social justice. They campaigned on higher taxes on bankers’ bonuses and a ‘mansion tax. This will pay for a guaranteed job program and greater health care spending. Labour has always portrayed the Conservatives as “heartless”.

This image stuck and even the Conservatives’ coalition partner, the Liberal Democrats agreed. Conservatives (or Tories as they are called in the UK), with their drastic cuts in government spending to balance the budget was seen as the “party of the rich” just as the Republican Party is in the US.

It is no wonder that the polls were wrong. All these accusations by opinion makers in the universities, news media made people afraid to tell the pollsters the truth. This phenomena of the “shy Tory” led to a serious under-estimate of their support.

The problem is that the cultural elite in Britain as in America are leftists who view their opponents as morally inferior to themselves. For example, Rebecca Roache, a lecturer of Philosophy at the University of London and formerly a researcher at the University of Oxford unfriended her Conservative friends in her Facebook. She said this in her blog:

So, unfriending. Is it okay? Well, the view that I have arrived at today is that openly supporting a political party that—in the name of austerity—withdraws support from the poor, the sick, the foreign, and the unemployed while rewarding those in society who are least in need of reward, that sells off our profitable public goods to private companies while keeping the loss-making ones in the public domain, that boasts about cleaning up the economy while creating more new debt than every Labour government combined, that wants to scrap the Human Rights Act and (via the TTIP) hand sovereignty over some of our most important public institutions to big business—to express one’s support for a political party that does these things is as objectionable as expressing racist, sexist, or homophobic views.

As in America, leftists have this feeling they are morally superior to those who disagree with. They are incapable of saying “let us be friends, even though we disagree”.  So it is no wonder that the Tories are shy. They learned to keep their mouths shut in social gatherings to avoid losing their friends. This habit seems to have carried forward to answering poll questions.

We can see a similar phenomena in the US. American conservatives are labelled by liberals as intolerant, uncaring for the poor and racist. The news media, universities and Hollywood are liberal bastions. Thus, America’s cultural elite keeps sending out the message that conservatives are somehow racist, uncaring and intolerant of gays.

For example, Chick Fil A was embroiled in controversy regarding its stand on gay marriage. There were threats to stop them from opening new restaurants in Chicago and Boston. Two students wearing Chick Fil A T shirts were harassed on the internet. This is what America and Britain has come to. People are afraid of expressing their views. The Left has succeeded in stifling free speech.

This is the likely reason why the polls in the UK were all were all wrong. They all predicted a neck and neck race resulting in a hung Parliament. In the end, the Conservatives won by a margin of 6%. There were people who told the polls one thing and did another in the privacy of the voting booth. The British press has dubbed such people as the “shy conservatives.”

Besides the immigration issue, there was the issue of growth vs economic justice. Like the British, Americans are intimidated by the liberal elite dominating the universities and news media. Another front where liberals are attacking is in regards to gay marriage. Those who oppose gay marriage are labelled as intolerant by the liberal elite.

If you expressed an opinion that the left disapproves of, you can expect to be harassed. That was also why US polls were wrong about the 2014 Congressional Elections. Looking ahead, I think the public scoldings from the media and academic elites in America has turned US conservatives quiet but also angry. To be constantly condemned for the traditional values of middle America like a belief in being rewarded for hard work as undeserved (oBUMa’s “you did not build that”), the desire for keeping illegal immigrants out as racist, support for the traditional family as being intolerant has angered conservatives. They may be intimidated from speaking out, but they will show their displeasure in the Presidential elections in 2016.

I predict that a Republican will win the White House in 2016, making it a clean slate of right wing President or Prime Ministers in all five English speaking countries.

*In the US, the unemployment rate is currently 5.5% as compared to 7.5% in the UK. The US is facing the question of 20 million illegal immigrants while in the UK, the immigration question is

(But the US figure does not tell the whole picture. The figure appears low  because a lot of people are discouraged from looking for work and are not counted. A more reliable number to look is the worker participation rate, which is currently 63.8%, or about the lowest since 1978. That is as bad as in Jimmy Carter’s time. )

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The only way the liberal dialogue can prevail is in the total absence of other solutions. It is easily proven how badly and painfully liberal policies fail; only by eliminating the alternatives can liberalism appear to be appealing.

This is what is supposed to happen when they shout down any other view with accusations of hate and racism; it is supposed to silence the discussion of alternatives so that liberalism can prevail without ANY competition. We must never allow that to happen. The failure of liberal ideology should never be allowed to overcome this great nation by simple default.

Never.

@Bill: Bill Any thoughts on Repub rep. Steve King of Iowa?
Who would you like to see win the Repub. nom. for POTUS?

@rich wheeler: Can’t say I have any thoughts on King; I would have to research him. A quick look has not revealed anything bad, though. Much that I see is positive, in my view.

Scott Walker has my interest, but I am not adverse to Huckabee, though his religious history would be used against him by the left; they cannot stand a person of faith. I like Rubio and Cruz, but I also want more experience.

I really wanted Gingrich to get the nomination in 2012. I like his ideas and his presentation. I also felt he was the one candidate that would be able to rip Obama to shreds in debates. As it turned out, Romney did great in the debates, aside from Obama’s alliances with the moderators. Gingrich would not have let up when he was gaining advantage, as Romney did, or let up because of Sandy. But, alas, that was not to be.

And who might you be cheering on, RW?

@Bill: Marine hero and Repubs biggest nightmare, if he gets in— Jim Webb .

Good read.

I came across this forgotten quote today… He may have been referring to something else at the time…but it can be used in many instances… Especially so in todays Liberal/Progressive climate…it can easily apply to the go along to get along RINO’s…

We cannot solve a problem with the same mentality that created it.
– Albert Einstein

@rich Wheeler: You’d best get to work convincing the corrupt media. Unless they feel as strongly about Webb as you, forget about it. Unless is he too liberal for most, forget about THAT.

And, unless the MSM chooses, supports, promotes and defends him, it ain’t happening.

@Bill: Webb will run if HRC digs a deeper hole over next 50 days.
He was huge underdog
when he upset Conservative Sen George Allen jr.in Va. 2008.
A true populist, Scotch Irish ,3 generations of warriors.
Supporter of 2nd amendment with a union card. Was against Iraq entry from the git go
Sec Nav under RR who praised him warmly in a speech we’ll see often if he wins the nom.

@FAITH7:

We cannot solve a problem with the same mentality that created it.
– Albert Einstein

If that isn’t the truth.

@Bill:

You’d best get to work convincing the corrupt media. Unless they feel as strongly about Webb as you, forget about it. Unless is he too liberal for most, forget about THAT.

Which is exactly why the MSM keeps asking Republicans (but not Hillary) about Iraq. The 2016 election will be to the Democrats what 2008 was to the Republicans. They will be seen as the 3rd term of Obama just like 2008 was seen as the 3rd term of Bush for the Republicans. Given Obama’s approval ratings, which may go down even further although they’ll probably never be as low as Bush’s, it will be an uphill battle for the Dems. Hence the MSM is going to try and frame the election as though it will be a 3rd Bush term instead of a 3rd Obama term. The R’s better publicly call them out on it or they will blow a good opportunity to win the WH because they will be playing defense the whole time.

The MSM is the media that Americans CHOOSE to consume. They have many choices, they could all watch Fox News, but they CHOOSE not to do that.
The main reason that the worker participation figure is as low now as in 1978 is because the median age of all Americans has risen from 28 year in 1978 to 38 years in 2015. Americans have aged and many have chosen to retire and stop working. Other reasons also may be that that the total number of people working for the Federal government is now 1 million LESS than it was in 1978 (despite a 33% population increase)
The POTUS who had the largest total number of Americans working for the government? Ronald Reagan. Liberals still love him for his advancement of BIG GOVERNMENT
Mr Lee please tell us if you were able to correctly predict the past 2 elections 18 months before the votes were tallied?My own prediction is that YOUR correct prediction rate will continue its streak
At this point it seems that Americans are heavily in favor of HRC.
Also here is a list of countries where English is an official language and the language of higher education

Anguilla
Ireland, Northern Singapore
Antigua and Barbuda Ireland, Republic of Solomon Islands
Australia Jamaica South Africa
Bahamas Kenya Swaziland
Barbados Lesotho Tanzania
Belize Liberia Tonga
Bermuda Malawi Trinidad and Tobago
Botswana Malta Turks and Caicos Islands
British Virgin Islands Mauritius Uganda
Cameroon Montserrat United Kingdom
Canada (except Quebec) Namibia Vanuatu
Cayman Islands New Zealand Wales
Dominica Nigeria Zambia
England Papua New Guinea Zimbabwe
Fiji St. Kitts and Nevis
Gambia St. Lucia
Ghana St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Gibraltar Scotland
Grenada Seychelles
Guyana Sierra Leon
Look it up with google or get the notes from a classmate

@rich Wheeler: Well, Hillary’s hole is already dug; it’s just a matter of getting the dirt out of it and the MSM is not too interested in that. See, right now, she is the liberal darling. She would have some competition for that illustrious title if Elizabeth Pow Wow Warren would jump in the race; the media might just dump Hillary like they did in 2007.

But, make no mistake, the leftist, corrupt, liberal media will be choosing YOUR candidate and I doubt Mr. Webb is even on their radar, for no scandals, corruption or major lies have been linked to him.

@Bill: Don’t you worry Bill,-they’ll be scandal,corruption and the like tied to your Repub. front runners–that’s politics..
HRC is no “media darling” like Bill. The media WILL jump her.IMO Bill will be her saving grace–you’ll have to beat them both–no easy task though BHO was able to figure a way–one of the biggest political upsets since Truman/Dewey.
Jim Webb has better credentials than any pol on either side. Fund raising against the Clintons is his biggest problem.

@John:

The MSM is the media that Americans CHOOSE to consume. They have many choices, they could all watch Fox News, but they CHOOSE not to do that.

But isn’t it funny that it takes almost the entire combined MSM (NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, et al) to even come close to the viewership of Fox?

The main reason that the worker participation figure is as low now as in 1978 is because the median age of all Americans has risen from 28 year in 1978 to 38 years in 2015. Americans have aged and many have chosen to retire and stop working.

Your alter-ego, Gullible Greggie, has tried before, and failed, to make the same argument. To credit the low participation rate to retiring seniors would mean that all those jobs previously held by those retiring seniors disappeared. No longer existed. And if that is the case, then anyone with two grey cells bumping together would understand that means the number of jobs was actually decreasing.

Other reasons also may be that that the total number of people working for the Federal government is now 1 million LESS than it was in 1978 (despite a 33% population increase)

Odd you didn’t mention that the 1 million less people working for the Federal Government ( 843,000 to be precise) is due to a 640,000 loss in uniformed military personnel.

The POTUS who had the largest total number of Americans working for the government? Ronald Reagan. Liberals still love him for his advancement of BIG GOVERNMENT

Where do you liberal glean your information? To be accurate, the largest number of Americans working for the government was under Lyndon Johnson. Under Johnson, the number reached 6,639,000 in 1968. The smallest number, 4,127,000 was under George W. Bush in 2007.

At this point it seems that Americans are heavily in favor of HRC.

Only those that are clueless and a great example of the dumbing down of America.

@rich Wheeler:

Don’t you worry Bill,-they’ll be scandal,corruption and the like tied to your Repub. front runners–that’s politics..

Oh, no doubt. I’m sure one of them said something like they put women’s resume’s in folders for review for hiring or some such despicable activity.

@John:

The MSM is the media that Americans CHOOSE to consume. They have many choices, they could all watch Fox News, but they CHOOSE not to do that.

So, if so few people bother to watch Fox, why do you cry-baby leftists obsess about their broadcasts and want to silence them? Just for fun?

@Bill: Romney was perceived as being out of touch with all but the upper class. Even worse he was pictured as a job breaker rather than a job maker.
Surprised the election was that close.

@rich wheeler: In actuality, Romney’s companies created thousands of jobs and he had vast business, government and leadership capabilities. So, I wonder where those “perceptions” came from? Did the media cover his accomplishments and contributions as much as they covered the “hidden” video of him stating the truth about the entitlement society being built by the left?

No. They didn’t. So, if you expect some up and coming Democrat who is moderate and wants to improve economic conditions by allowing businesses to grow, you can forget about it. The left are celebrity worshipers… cultists. The media chooses the star, creates the celebrity and promotes them.

While we KNOW Obama could not improve the economy and grow the nation, there is EVERY probability that Romney could have. This is the crime of the liberal media. They will not allow the process to work because liberalism cannot win that way.

@rich Wheeler: Jim Who? Why would he be a nightmare to anyone? Is he an American? What’s so scary about him? Has he been married?

@rich Wheeler: You are writing off one person too early and no one is paying any attention to him- Biden. While he wouldn’t fare as well in the General Election as Hillary or Webb, he would present a formidable challenge in the primaries, much more than any of the other names being mentioned, including Webb. There is no way you can count out a sitting VP should he/she decide to run. In our early years, the Secretary of State position was considered to be the stepping stone to the Presidency. Now it’s the Vice Presidency and it’s been that way for a long time.

@another vet:

There is no way you can count out a sitting VP should he/she decide to run.

remember Dan Quayle?

@Redteam: He didn’t run for President as a sitting VP. He waited until 2000 before throwing his hat in the ring. Biden is a sitting VP just like Nixon, Humphrey, GHW Bush, and Gore were. They all threw their hat in the ring as a sitting VP and they wall won their party’s nomination as did Mondale who only waited one election as opposed to two like Quayle.

@another vet: Unfortunately, I think it is inevitable that HRC will be the next POTUS—Money and 65% of the female vote will get her in— I think a Rubio/Kasich ticket has a slim chance–maybe 20%—that’s it.
Webb doesn’t think he can raise enough money to compete.Biden is a perennial loser.

@rich wheeler: As Donald Sutherland’s character, Oddball, used to say in Kelly’s Heroes, “Negative waves Moriarty, negative waves.”

@rich wheeler: The Hill doesn’t have a chance. She has too many mental probs.

@Redteam: But…. she’s liberal. She doesn’t need mental capacity.

@Bill: She needs all the help she can get. Brainpower is not her strong suit.

@Redteam: All she has is the Clinton name. She has no positive accomplishment and, aside from supporting socialism, not a single enduring principle. Then, there’s the corruption.

Yet, as long as they are told to, liberals line up behind her as if she holds the answers to what is plaguing America while, in fact, she personifies what is tearing America down.

FOR THE RECORD Jim Webb is the only combat tested veteran in the whole group.
He was against the war in Iraq from the beginning.
Memorial Day–remember the fallen. Semper Fi

@rich wheeler:

He was against the war in Iraq from the beginning.

So you’re saying his judgment is not worth a damn? By the way Rich, since you are a VN vet, how do you feel about LBJ getting you into that, him being a lib and of the party you support so strongly? I personally supported JFK’s point of view, let the commies figure it out for themselves.

@rich wheeler:

Jim Webb is the only combat tested veteran i

Was all that hand to hand with all the wives he divorced?

@Redteam: His ex’es and current wife love him and provide his first 3 votes.
Webb’s early judgement on Iraq was correct unlike HRC and the gang of 10 or more seeking the Repub nom.

@rich wheeler: You may want to check out Lindsey Graham. He wasn’t a combat Veteran, but he did serve in both Iraq and Afghanistan. It wasn’t for long periods, but then again Kerry never served for a long period of time either.

@another vet:AV, I see no difference in whether a person’s military time is during peacetime or combat time. It is mostly a matter of timing. I joined the Navy in Aug 57 and served til Aug 61, 4 years. There were several ‘alerts’ during my time and sometimes when the ship “left port for an undisclosed destination’ . Had war have happened, I would have been in it. Laos was heating up when I got out but many were being ‘extended’ because of it. It could have been me also, but thankfully it wasn’t. I didn’t volunteer because it was war time or peace time. I volunteered because I wanted to be a US Navy sailor and I will say that patriotism had a lot to do with my feelings.
John Kerry became a traitor after (or while) his service. He still is. But the Dimocrats are proud of him. I’m sure they all still admire Jane Fonda also.

@rich wheeler:

Webb’s early judgement on Iraq was correct unlike HRC and the gang of 10 or more seeking the Repub nom.

A matter of opinion. It’s kind of like if Ike would have pulled out of Western Europe in 1954 and then people went back and said it was a mistake for Truman to put troops there in the first place because of the ensuing chaos that would have resulted. Unfortunately, we’ll probably never know how successful Iraq could have been because the current POTUS pulled out too soon against the advice of his generals and members of his Cabinet.

As for Webb, while I disagree with his position, at least it is the same. I’m not too pleased with the bulk of the Republicans right now because they fell for the MSM’s game hook, line, and sinker. The only one who didn’t fall for their game was Graham, the only one of the bunch to have worn a uniform.

@rich wheeler: How do you know Jim Who’s wives will vote for him? What was Jim Webb’s early judgment on Iraq and why was it right? It certainly has now been proven that Iraq did have WMD’s which was the basis for the war, so what has changed that makes being opposed, ‘the right thing’?
How about answering my question in 28.

@Redteam: Everyone’s service, those who served honorably that is not like the left’s new found hero Bergdahl, should be respected regardless if it was peacetime or wartime. The bulk of those who wore the uniform served in peacetime meaning they helped prevent wartime. Kerry is a disgrace.

@another vet: Yes, I realize Bergdahl is the left’s darling, but that sure doesn’t include the soldiers that served with him or the families of those that died due to his desertion. Kerry is typical of the lefties.

@rich wheeler:” Webb’s early judgement on Iraq was correct unlike HRC and the gang of 10 or more seeking the Repub nom.” That is only based on hindsight; based on the information available at the time and the circumstances at the moment, he made the wrong decision, risking national security.

@Bill: Bill you are correct that Webb was on the wrong side, as usual. All the evidence at the time said there were WMD’s and history has proven they were correct. The only reason Iraq is considered a failure is because Obozo pulled the military out, against all advice. Jim Webb(Who) was wrong then and apparently wrong when he married several of his wives.

Hey guys, you are aware, I hope, that the British “Conservative” party is, on the most important issues (e.g. health care, welfare, military, taxation, etc.) to the left of Barack Obama?

e.g. from the Conservative Party Manifesto:

We can be proud of what we have achieved so far together, and especially proud that as we have taken hard decisions on public spending, we have protected the National Health Service, with 9,500 more doctors and 6,900 more nurses, and ensured generous rises in the State Pension.

n.b. The British National Health Service is the most truly socialized medical system of any Western (or Asian) democracy. The government owns the hospitals and the doctors are employees of the government.

There’s lots more where that came from.

https://www.conservatives.com/Manifesto

If I were a Brit, I’d vote for the British Conservative Party myself, and I’ve been called a socialist Marxist by esteemed debate opponents on this blog. – Larry Weisenthal/Huntington Beach CA

@ Larry Weisenthal #39:

“Hey guys, you are aware, I hope, that the British “Conservative” party is, on the most important issues (e.g. health care, welfare, military, taxation, etc.) to the left of Barack Obama?”

No $hit, Sherlock!
David Cameron sailed to unexpected victory with his support of gay marriage fully engaged.
More and more conservatives have figured out that opposing gay rights is a losing cause at the ballot box.

@Larry Weisenthal: There is little in COMMON between the Brit Conservs and guys like Cruz and Perry.
There is NO chance a Conservative will get elected POTUS
Best to get behind Jim Webb—best chance to stop HRC.

Welcome back Larry

@rich wheeler: you think HRC has a chance? She’s not one of Webb’s ex wives, is she?

@Redteam: As you surely know HRC will beat any of the 10 or more Repub. hopefuls.
Webb is the ONLY one who can beat her===All 3 wives ask for your support.

Semper Fi

@rich wheeler: So there we have it. Some 17 months before the general election, the primaries haven’t even taken place so we don’t even know who will be in the running for either party, and there is no reason for anyone to exercise their voting rights because it’ll be either HRC or Jim Webb. If anyone desires another choice, don’t waste your time. The election has already been decided.

And that my friends, is one way how dictatorships come about.

@another vet: My prognostication of the inevitability of an HRC Presidency is no more foolish than those on here who discount her outright or claim she won’t run.for health reasons.
She is fired up and ready to go–only Captain Jim Webb can derail her inevitable victory.
My hope is that moderate Repubs. will join Dems. and get behind Webb in an effort to take her out.

@rich wheeler: I think the count on Repub ‘hopefuls’ is over 20 now. I think the Dimicrats are putting them up to it. Apparently every Repub thinks that no one in their correct mind would vote for Shrillary. They are correct in that assumption, but we don’t really need 20+ to make that point.

How do you know that ALL of Jim Who’s wives support him? Why can’t he support himself? Doesn’t he draw a gov pension?

@rich wheeler:

those on here who discount her outright or claim she won’t run.for health reasons.

Oh, so now she has ‘health reasons’ so that’s gonna be your excuse when she loses.

@Redteam: Try and keep up RT. You’re the one who thinks her health issues could keep her out.
She’ll run and win against the Repub challenger–as usual badly wounded by fellow Repubs ( 20 you say?–could be–where’s Jindahl?) during primary circular firing squad.

@rich wheeler: Earlier you stated that she would take 65% of the female vote, a somewhat dim view of the intellectual capacity of those 65% of the women. But if that truly is the case, what makes you think Webb can syphon off all those women voters? I believe you stated here before that you served under him in VN so perhaps you have an insider’s view of what would make him so appealing to those women.

As much as you bemoan HRC, if I recall you are an active Party member meaning you will support whoever gets the Party’s nomination. If they tell you to campaign for HRC, you’ll do so. In late 2007, two friends of mine told me that HRC was going to be the next POTUS and that it was a done deal. I told them that Obama was going to beat her in the primaries. They said no way and both of those individuals were black.

@rich wheeler:

Try and keep up RT. You’re the one who thinks her health issues could keep her out.

Well, I must be way ahead. I’m the one that thinks her mental issues make her an ideal Dimocrat candidate. She fits right in with the brain dead. ” Where’s JIndahl?” like Cruz, and Rubio he’s not a natural born citizen and therefore not eligible.