Iran is in the news again. Talking heads are saying Iran will do something in October to impact our elections.
Here’s my uninformed opine about Iran and their games.
Way back when, Iran once took our embassy hostage and held US citizens hostage for 444 days. Surprise, surprise, as soon as Reagan took office, Iran turned loose the hostages; they did not want to deal with Reagan.
Fast forward to 2012. I will summarize two thoughts as succinctly as I can. First, Iran would rather deal with Obama than Romney. They will therefore do some dirty trick that will enhance Obama’s standing. Look for Iran to offer in late October to stop enriching uranium. Why? So the lemmings and sheep all fawn over Obama for “saving” the world once again. Iran does not want to deal with Romney as they know he will take decisive action if needed.
Second thought on Iran and their nukes. All along I was thinking this threat was unrealistic. I mean, Israel is so small, a nuke strike would damage not only Israel but also Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, etc. Not a practical option.
However, my thinking has shifted. Iran only needs very small nukes to do what I think they might be planning. Launch about six small nukes over Israel and explode them just high enough above ground that the resultant EMP shuts down mostly only Israel. Coupled with a ground attack, this approach would be very effective.
End of story, Iran needs Obama in the WH.
Crossposted from ThinkOpine
Biography of I.B. Wright
Ignatius Ben Wright, born in England to an American GI and a lovely British lass, a true War Baby born before the end of WWII. He left his homeland for the USA as an infant at the end of the war. He grew up in western Pennsylvania, spending his childhood between the city of his parents and the farm of his grandparents. With much of his childhood spent on a small working farm, I.B. understands the work ethic of Middle America well.
Educated in public schools I.B. knew from childhood he would attend college. He first went to Slippery Rock State College, (now University). After a stint in the USAF where he was stationed in Alaska and Texas he returned to Ohio and earned his BS from Franklin University in Columbus, Ohio. Immediately thereafter he began his career in hospital administration. While working he attended Central Michigan University and earned his MA in business management.
He then moved his family, wife and two sons, to Saudi Arabia where he began what was to become a career in international healthcare management and business consulting. After 25+ years abroad, his wife now forgives him as initially the overseas junket was to be only two years. They have lived and worked in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Pakistan, the Philippines, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, Maine, and Alaska.
I.B. has returned to the USA and now spends his time in consulting, reading, writing, photography, US travel, and with his grandchildren. He describes himself as being a God-fearing American conservative with enough brains to get past the media labels on issues.
Very good analysis. I seem to remember something like this before Clinton’s second term. Mike Coffman Representative (R) from Colorado made a comment last week. Mike is a Retired Marine who actually deployed during an incident prior to a national election. Iran would rather deal with Obama as would Russia, Greece, and all of the middle-east. I wonder why?
It is less about what Iran will do than what Israel will do first.
Why would Iran care if its strike against Isreal affected Lebanon, Syria and Jordan? Iran is a Twelver Shia Muslim sect, Syria and Jordan are both Sunni, which the Shia consider apostates, and Lebanon is split between the two with a 45% of its population basically Christian.
The bottom line is Iran is home of the Crazy Mullah philosophy, and it really doesn’t care if there is collateral damage to other Arabic states if it acheives the goal of ridding the world of Israel.
I think only one or two EMP bursts would be sufficient to destroy much of Israel’s civilian electronics. However, even one such nuclear attack would force both Russia and China to disown Iran and create near world-wide support for Israel to unleash their fullest fury on Iran.
@Ditto, ever since the press started giving Newt grief about his warnings on EMP threats, both NEMP (nuke EMPS) and solar flares (CME), I had started collecting data and links for self education and the back and forth brouhaha, and assessing the threat as genuine or fantasy.
In that time, I’ve learned just about enough to be dangerous… LOL So I’ll share some.
The affected areas from an NEMP is affected first by the size of the detonation, and it’s altitude. A megaton detonation isn’t much affected by altitude for sheer power, so even 24-250 miles up would have some ground effects. For reference, Hiroshima was about .02 megatons, small by today’s standards.
Since few nations are capable of that, the one kiloton is probably more a feasible effect to study as max. And those are highly dependent upon the altitude at detonation for effect.
The Space Review has some pretty good info as to affected radius… and remember that as you get farther away from the central detonation, right above the target, the weaker the effects are. According to their info, a one-kiloton device, exploded approx 24.8 mi in altitude, would have an EMP E1-field within a 450 mi radius, or extending 225 miles from detonation center.
Israel is about 12,632 miles in sq area size… tho not squared in shape. So depending upon how many defense systems are in place, and where they are located, the appropriate amount of devices would have to be successfully delivered, and exploded over all of these prime defense areas, not necessarily blanket the entire State.
But that will prove to be quite challenging. As I mentioned in another thread, anti-missiles systems have been going up all over the ME, including other Islamic countries, in reaction to Iran. The West and Israel are not the only ones eying Iran with wary eyes.
While the US is completing a system in Qatar, to work in tandem with Israeli and Turkish systems, Israel has their own, very accurate design system called the Iron Dome. This has been operational since early this year.
After their implementation was so successful, Hamas got disgruntled, and scurried back to the new and improved (/sarc) Egyptian govt to renegotiate a cease fire since they couldn’t inflict much damage.
But the current system is only sufficient to cover the three most populous southern cities. They need more systems for the others, and they are the tune of about $100 million each. So they are busy attempting to get those in place, and with the US’s help (yes… even under Obama)
Then there’s the US’s X Band Radar system, that is trained on Iran and can provide quick as a bunny detection of any launch.
Needless to say, Iran attempting to be successful with any NEMP detonations is not going to be easy, if not somewhat improbable. Not unless they’ve got a megaton device, and have their new longer range missiles for delivery.
For more interesting reading out of my archives on EMPs in general:
EMP and Solar Protection
The federal EMP Commission’s site
The 2004 EMP Threat report to the Commission, by sundry tech heads who’s bios you’ll find at the end of the 62 pg executive study.
House Committee on Armed Services in 2004.
Nov 2011 article in Decoded Science
You can also find lots of things on EMPs at Heritage Foundation. Congress still keeps tabs (obvious since there is an EMP Commission…). While the US cannot effectively protect the nation’s defense systems against the Sun’s natural assaults, anti-missile systems would most certainly be beneficial for our soil for threats, if and when an enemy became capable of a long range missile delivery system, and a powerful enough detonation device.
@MataHarley:
Thanks Mata. 🙂 To be honest I was too lazy to look it up. Iran doesn’t necessarily have to rely on missiles for delivery. They can use private aircraft stripped down to carry fuel, low-yield bombs and suicide pilots.
You’re welcome, Ditto. But as I pointed out, Israel’s Iron Dome has pretty much put the kabash on the majority of that stuff.
Have they been paying close attention? They should tread lightly. We just might do something before our elections that will impact Iran. What job do they imagine the MOP was designed for?
@Greg:
Your “They” being?… (Just for clarification.)
@Greg, thanks for sending me scurrying for the acronym for MOP. My guess is because the US Negev Desert system I linked is a sophisticated satellite monitoring system, you are referring to Meteosat Operations Programs? Hey… just an old broad Navy veteran spouse. Not up on all the latest lingo/acronyms for things…. so feel free to correct me as to your intent.
I’m going to assume that the “they” you are referring to is Iran. And yes, I think they are paying *very* close attention. Their PR and intimidation game is just as time/event sensitive as the other sides’. That doesn’t mean they won’t attempt to push buttons for effect.
What this will come down to is if Israeli intel indicates they are reaching a dangerous tipping point for their survival. They will not, and should not, base their regional survival prospects on the US political field.
But it is my gut instinct that the shared Iranian threat – not only by Israel but the western nations and other Islamic nations – comes down to a power play of getting defense systems in place before Iran is equipped and dumb enough to attack. Or that Israel feels their military has reached a point where they can’t carry this initial operation out by themselves. They are an independent and proud lot.
And as to Israel as an independent, vs the need for US military aid in that, I offer up and article about what US (and Israeli) military power it would take for a preemptive attack on the Iranian facilities. In that article is a detailed inventory list by defense analyst, Anthony Cordesman.
From my untrained and no-need-to-know status, my guess is this is a delicate balance of timing – insuring a reasonable and successful defense (i.e. the Qatar anti-missile system should be completed and as many Israeli Iron Dome systems as possible) to be in place. That is combined with the political/diplomatic events. In that case, it would be letting Israel “take the lead” by taking unilaterally (but strategically timed) taking out the targets, and then having the US come in to enjoin the affected ME region – because it would be more than Israel – against Iranian retaliation.
That is essentially Israel “taking the blame” for drawing justified first blood, and the US merely responding to an ally in trouble. The US is in no position to be seen as leading the charge.
MOP = Massive Ordnance Penetrator, 30,000 lb GPS-guided penetrating bomb that can be dropped from B-2 or B-52 bomber. The Air Force is buying a dozen or so.
I think at present, it’s just for looking at.
@Ditto, #9:
“They” being the Iranians.
A short video concerning the MOP GBU-57.
An article that appeared in the Air Force Times on July 25, 2012: Donley: New bunker-busting bomb ready to use
An article that appeared just last week: This Is What A US Strike On Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Could Look Like
We might be nearing the point where people who like to connect dots start paying more attention to the phases of the moon.
@Greg:
That could definitely make November a bit more interesting.
Israel has contigency plans for an EMP strike. Their military infrastructure has been hardened against such attacks and war planners/Israeli leaders have a scenerio were Israel detonates an EMP over the entire Middle East, allowing Israel to fly its jets directly to Iran without concerns about detection. The sources say the Israel could bring power back for civilians in a matter of days.
A potential Israeli war plan was recently leaked. One of the reasons Netanyahu wants to polygraph his security cabinet. But the leaked plan starts with a massive cyber attack, much like the one which turned off Syria’s infrastructure (Israel was in an out before Syrians had a clue). Back in 2010, the Israelis developed a nano particle radar absorbing paint (cheap stealth) and it was leaked they have coated their planes and Jericho missles with it.
It was also leaked they had secret weapon that the world hasn’t seen used in combat. The speculation is non-nulcear electronmagnetic pulse weapons installed in their Jerichos. If the Soviets could build them in the 60’s, Israel could build them today. And there are Israeli security and counter-terrorists analysts who have commented at the ease of building no-nuke emp. One can easliy deduce it’s not outside of possibility.
Leaked Israeli war plan:
Cyber-attack to blind them, followed by Jerichos (with non-nuke emp) to take out infrastucture, then the IAF conduct their sorties relatively unmolested. Worth mentioning, IAF has been bragging about their electronic warfare capabilities.
Israel domestically produces a 500lb bunker buster and has hundreds if not thousands of our 1000 and 5000 pound busters. The MOP hasn’t publicly been sold to Israel.
Defcon is around the corner. Diplomacy has failed. War is imminent. Recent observations:
0 – WND reported in recent weeks that their intelligence sources have detected Israel handling propellants for its Jericho missiles.
o – Israel just tested a SMS missile alert system for cell phones
o – They sent out an educational pamphlet using a muppet to reach child to urge them to knowing where the nearest bomb shelter is (both for school and home) and how long they have to get there when the missle sirens go off. Pamphlet also instructs parents in how to build a proper safe room
o – Gas mask distribution has spiked
o – Netanyahu has ordered the IDF Home Front Command to initiate an extensive program to protect strategic energy facilities
o – Canada closed their embassy
o – I have information that contrators in the Gulf have been issued chemical weapon suits, contracts have been extended, and program agendas have changed
o – Former minister Tzachi Hanegbi said Thursday that Israel is facing 50 of the most fateful days
Key dates:
0 – Sept 16-18, Rosh Hashanah
o – Sept 25-26, Yom Kippur
o – Sept 27, Netanyahu comes to the United Nations for what I believe is to make his case for kinetic action against Iran. That sanctions have failed. Also, he’s schedule to meet with Obama.
0 – Next few weeks, undisclosed but before the elections, Israelis and Americans are conducting war games, missle defense
o – Nov 6, elections
Moon phases 2012:
0 – Sept 15 New Moon
o – Sept 29 Full Moon
o – Oct 15 New Moon
o – Oct 29 Full Moon
o – Nov 13 New Moon
o – Nov 28 Full Moon
o – Dec 13 New Moon
o – Dec 28 Full Moon
There’s chatter on the webs that not only is an Israeli strike likely, it will most likely occur between September 15th and October 15th. No coincendence it’s a lunar cycle, Sept 29 is the full moon, so right around there when the moon’s still wanning. Speculation is that Netanyahu doesn’t trust Obama’s word and wants to force his hand knowing he would have to support Israel or look soft depressing/losing the Jewish vote.
The folks over at Information Dissemination have a great analysis of an Israeli strike. A lil teaser: The cyber smart bomb that Israel has likely prepared and potentially already placed on the networks of the Iranians is going to make Stuxnet look ATARI grade.
And in some weird eerie coincidence, there’s a ton of people predicting the rapture will start this Rosh Hashanah.
TLDR – shits about to get real
@mossomo, the Economist has an article from yesterday mentioning the “leaked” plan. They suggest it was done by current and past senior Israeli military and intel officials who don’t support an unilateral Israeli strike. This created a barrage of press that war was eminent, and created long lines for gas masks.
Personally, I think that the correct analysis of all this chatter is for the desired effect…. and my thoughts were manifested, put in a superior way than what I could do, by David Blair at the UK Telegraph. BeBe is, quite simply, a master at using rhetoric and posturing in order to get a desired effect.
i.e., post the “leak”, Obama steps up Naval exercises, Merkel promises a round of new and stronger sanctions, and the UK and France fell in line right behind Germany.
Sometimes the sabre rattling is not telegraphing an actual assault, but keeping pressure on Iran stepped up by Israel’s allies. I suspect that Canada’s unusual move to kick out their Iranian diplomats, and close up shop in Tehran, is also another increased pressure that is designed to portray Iran as isolated.
I do agree that da s*#t is going to be real, but I don’t agree that it will be an October surprise or within the next few months. No proof of that, anymore than others have proof it will be in the upcoming months. But I don’t see it as plausible yet. Right now the Iranian components are spread around a lot of facilities, and it would behoove the Israelis to see all those goods stashed in one, or considerably fewer locations.
mossomo
you mention at the beginning the neutering of IRAN CIBER SPACE,
YES I believe would be a first step and maybe the only one step they need to put IRAN IN THE DARK,
BECAUSE THEIR BIG TOY ARE ONLY WORKING ELECTRONICLY,
but the other thing is if they transfer their mega military people in HESHBOLA TO FORCE THE ISRAEL
ENTRY EN MASSE, THIS WOULD RENDER ISRAEL UNABLE TO USE THEIR OWN BIG TOY FOR FEAR OF ENDANGERING THEIR OWN PEOPLE BECAUSE OF THE CLOSENESS OF LAND, SO THE ARMAGEDDON WOULD BEGIN AT THEIR DOOR ABOVE AND UNDER IN THE TUNNELS WE KNOW ARE ALL OVER AROUND THAT WOULD NEED LIGHTER SHOOTING WEAPONS LIKE AMERICAN USE IN AFGHANISTAN
AND A PULVERIZING BOMB TO CLEAN UP THE RESIDUE OF HESBOLA. AT THE END
mossomo
but if the ARAB SPRING BROTHERS countries around decide to get in and support that war, than ISRAEL will take the jumbo SHERMAN MOP, and expand the sweep on all around, the map, and they will never be attack again for a thousand years.
bye
@MataHarley:
Thanks for the feedback. I try to avoid creating a wall of text. And I have a pulse on this subject and can go on.
So yeah – my personal opinion? That any strike takes place after the election. New sanctions are a def possibility and desired by Israel. I tend to lean that Netanyahu allows one more round of more serious santions; I don’t think the Israelis want to help re-elect Obama.
I think world opinion needs to be one notch higher for global/UN approval on a strike; maybe a France, German or UK admission santions weren’t working. Which falls in line with all the hawks vs dove leaks on both sides of the Atlantic. To ratchet up sanctions. Or discount the threat.
Low probability that Iran takes any singnificant action in October or near-term, maybe something bastardly, like killing more tourists or blowing something up.
But I can’t totally discount an Israeli strike in October. The stuff in my previous post is legit, should be on the radar, and has a little traction. Still again – low probability. Lower than any Iranian terrorism.
My gut says confrontation with Iran is inevitable. Spring/Summer. We have an election and I think Israelis let that play out. Logistically I think they’re hardening their infrastructure. But we approach the finishing line. The longer Israelis dilly-dally, the further the Iranian enrichment progresses, not to mention weapons development – while the Israelis do the same, the thing is the longer the Israelis delay, the greater the civilian casualties will be – so it needs mentioning, Iranians are working full time to further their cruise missle with a with a missle range of 1,242 miles and ballistic missle development. In the last couple days they released a press release of the mentioned new cruise missle, warning it could hit American assets (lazy link, there’s more out there on US forward deployment depots) or radar. A lot of these announcements are bluster, but you should never underestimate the enemy.
Determination and desperation – the true Israeli secret weapon. I stole that from somebody. But it’s not the first time Persians were resolved to destroy/kill Jews. Esther
The strategic chatter has frightened a lot of Israelis. And Iranian/Persian action and rhetoric have too.
Action
The latest quarterly report of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s watchdog, said that Iran had sharply increased the size of its stockpile of higher-grade uranium and its capacity to enrich more.
Rhetoric
August 17, 2012. Ahmadinejad Threatens That ‘Israel Will Soon Be Destroyed’. Ahmadinejad, in his speech, claimed that “Zionists” triggered World Wars I and II, and had “taken control over world affairs since the moment they became dominant over the US government.”
@ilovebeeswarzone:
Nope. Netanyahu warns Israel will strike Lebanon (infrastructure) if Hezbollah provokes. One of the reasons I think Israel needs global opinions to be ratcheted up a notch before any hostilities. Will get nasty.
@ilovebeeswarzone:
but if the ARAB SPRING BROTHERS countries around decide to get in and support that war.
With the Persians (Shia)? Not ever gonna happen; different culture. Arabs (majority Sunni) the majority hate Shai which they believe are apostates.
Sunni Arabs hate the Persians, and those Arabs distrust the Turks (Sunni) who ruled them for so long.
The Turks (Sunni) don’t trust the Persians (Shia). The Turks ruled the Arabs and had an empire, which brings a cultural slant regarding sphere of influence.
Sphere is contested.
Iran & Iraq are Shia majority. Iran/Persia was empire too. Persia ruled the ME area and those people as well.
Iran is supporting destabilization events in Sudan, Yemen, Bahrain, and parts of Saudi Arabia.
Hezbollah in Mexico, Central & South America.
Muslim Brotherhood are Sunni/Arab. Hamas is an offshot of MB. MB won the Arab Spring elections. Arabs may want a caliphate, but don’t want the Turks to run it (nor Persian Caucasions for the matter); Saudis make tons of money on Mecca. Those moneys support “charities”. Those entities donate to political parties. I can’t doubt Cold War type infiltration/influence.
Kurds are playing all sides.
Syrian Allowites are Shia. Assad is a Allowite, a minority people who clan leaders control parts of the economy. The head Allowite/Saddam type Bathists is one of the last tyrants.
Shia Crescent
Druze are a Abraham/Moses type religion. A Christian sect? Someone with better knowledge please elaborate?
Every sect has militia.
/shuting down 4 night
Will end with this, the last Synagogue in Egypt cloed it’s door. Huzzah! Arab Spring.
mossomo
great, thank you for taking the time to elaborate,
I want to also note, not to forget the NORTH KOREA DEAL WITH IRAN LATELY MUST SRENGTHEN IRAN,
and the joker in all this is that we don’t know what N KOREA HAS, and how far they advance that race for weapons, THEY HAVE BEEN A CLOSE SOCIETY AND ARE KNOWN TO BE VERY INTERESTED IN WEAPONRY AND MILITARY EXPANSION,
i could even think they would have bought some of the weapons which disapeared from IRAK AND LYBIA AS THOSE TWO WHERE ALSO GREAT COLLECTOR OF WEAPON AND CHIMICALS WEAPON.
BYE
@mossomo, I don’t think there is any disagreement at all between us. Save that in your comment #14, you thought it may happen before the election and with that I disagreed. Not because of Obama vs Romney, since either one would allow Israel to draw first blood, and then stand with military support against any repercussions. But more the other reasons you mentioned… wanting more documented global annoyance with Iran and allowing a few more rounds of Western sanctions to be increased. BeBe’s goal is to force the allies to keep increasing the pressure on Iran.
Just one other thing I want to mention. It’s a bit too simple to pit Shia against Sunni. When it comes to the West, Israel and Zionists, the radical elements of these groups (i.e. Hamas and Hezbollah) have no problems standing shoulder to shoulder to wipe out a shared enemy. Their idea is get rid of the Zionists, then they’ll fight amongst themselves for supreme power afterwards. There are many historic documented examples of Shia/Sunni working together.
There’s no doubt that at some time, there is going to be conflict. Iran is attempting to do everything they can to force Israel’s hand prematurely… they so pine for an attack in order to retaliate. But all the players in their respective sides in the puzzle are, IMHO, busy putting all elements in place for the inevitable. Just don’t think they are there yet. But I suspect in the next POTUS term, it will happen.
REFERING TO HEZBOLLAH IN MEXICO
I have read at MARION THAT OBAMA HAD SIGN AN EXECUTIVE ORDER TO BRING 2000 FAMILY FROM HEZBOLLAH, AND PROVIDE THEM WITH HOUSES AND FOOD AND MONEY
TOTALING MULTI MILLIONS IN THE UNITED STATES
THAT WAS EARLIER IN THE 2009 YEARS,
mossomo
HI,
I was thinking also, what is the plan if RUSSIA GET IN THE BRAWL ALIGN, AS WE KNOW WITH IRAN, AND THERE IS CHINA WHO BUY AND SELL FROM IRAN,
DID WE THINK ABOUT IT,
WE HAVE TO FIGURE ALL THE OPTIONS REGARDING THE UNEXPECTED SCENARIOS, TO BE DELT WITH SWIFLY EVEN AS A WHOLE OR BY GRADATION OF LADDER PUTING EACH ONE WHERE THEY POSSIBLY
COULD MESS UP A PLAN,
BYE
AND OBAMA REFUSE TO MEET BEBE IN NEW YORK,
HOW CAN OBAMA BE TRUST, WHEN THE WHOLE WORD DON’T TRUST HIM
LOOK AT EGYPT BEHAVIOR MOB, OBAMA, DON’T YOU FEEL GUILTY FOR HELPING THE BROTHERHOOD TO PUT DOWN MUBARACK WHEN YOU SEE WHAT THEY REALLY ARE NOW.
WHEN YOU SEE THE AMERICAN FLAG DESSECRATED IN THERE AND NO ONE TO STOP THEM.
SHAME
there are 4 more AMERICANS DEATHS IN LIBYA,
ARE WE BETTER OFF NOW THAN 4 YEARS AGO?
YOU BETTER THINK HARD, BEFORE YOU SHOOT YOUR MOUTH,
LOOK AT THE EGYPT AND LIBYA PROTECTED BY OBAMA TO MAKE A REVOLT
WHICH KILLED A LOT OF PEOPLE , LOOK AT THEM TURN AGAINST OBAMA THEIR PROTECTOR,
LOOK AT SYRIA BEING HELP TO CHANGE FOR WORSE, AND SUPPORTED WITH SENDING WEAPONS
TO REBELS,
all was predicted before at their very beginning right here by our AUTHORS AND SOME COMENTERS, THE SAME TIME
THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD WHERE INVITED AT THE WHITE HOUSE, IT STATED TO STINK IN AMERICA.
AND LOOK AT THEM NOW,
A COLLECTIVE INSANITY TOLD BY A SMART PSYCHIATRIST
JUST TODAY, AND from what we are seeing,
MATA THEY WOULD CERTAINLY JOIN THE FRENZY YES,
AND ISRAEL IS RIGHT BY ASKING MORE ABOUT WHERE THE REDLINE IS, HE KNOW THEM ALL, they being not normal people because they where not conceived on love, they where conceived on sex urges by their man free to rape
or kill their woman if she resist.
is that WHAT OBAMA PROTECT MORE THAN AMERICAN’S LIVES
WELCOMING THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD IN THE PEOPLE’S
WHITE HOUSE?
YES
Just wanted to add the icing on the cake, following up @my comment #15, agreeing with David Blair that this was just BeBe, being the master of his game.
Today’s news (9/15/12, or five days later) is that BeBe and Panetta have both somewhat copped to the posturing being designed to force allies to step up the pressure on Iran.
Per the Jerusalem Post, Panetta acknowledged the same, but in a more roundabout way:
To paraphrase what someone else here said, I believe… “No one puts BeBe in a corner”….but evidently he can do that to Obama.