Michael Mann….the inventor of the “Hockey Stick”, otherwise known as “cooking the books,”
has released a paper in which they “prove” that the rate of sea-level rising along the Atlantic coast is greater now than at any time in the past 2,000 years. Which means doom, horror, and the 3nd coming of the cookie monster!
Ok, I kid.
No, what they are trying to prove is that there is a link between surface temperature and sea level.
How did they do this you ask?
“To reconstruct sea level, the research team used microfossils called foraminifera preserved in sediment cores from coastal salt marshes in North Carolina.”
Whoakay then. That should prove unimpeachable.
It gets better:
“Two points in salt Marshes in North Carolina are used as the basis for the study”
Two whole points? Wow!
And then, the Coup de grâce…put the data through the same process Mr. Mann did years ago which produced the Hockey Stick. He used upside down proxy data.
It’s remarkable that in this case, there doesn’t even exist a plausible model that would agree with the statement that the sea level rise has accelerated. Note that the red curve above, coming from the models, has the same slope around the year 1000 AD as it had recently.
The flat shaft of the blue hockey stick is created by an interplay of several methods. They include both the MBH hockey stick fallacy that creates hockey sticks even out of red noise; as well as the dropping resolution of (or “diffusion in”) similar reconstructions as you try to go further into the past.
Note that the sea level hockey stick graph claims that the sea level has never deviated by more than 5 centimeters throughout the whole first millennium! Well, that’s very unlikely. The graph above shows that in the last 7,000 years, the sea level was nearly constant but you may still see that the slope is of order 50 cm, and not 5 cm, per millennium.
The above author isn’t the only one with some qualms over Mann’s findings:
They see a major problem of the new study in the fact that it is ultimately based only on the finding from the coast of North Carolina. That could be too limited for a statement regarding global developments. “This study is therefore not suitable at all to make predictions,” says Jens Schröter from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research.
Rahmstorf and his colleagues concede that local sea-level fluctuations may differ from the global average. Nevertheless, the scientists expect that their data show broadly the changes in global sea level. Schroeter, however, argues that over a period of more than 2000 years the influences of continental drift and the so-called isostatic rebound will be felt. This is a consequence of the last ice age: with the disappearance of the glaciers, the land masses were liberated of such a large load that they still perform a rocking movement. In Scotland, some areas were lifted by up to 60 centimeters during the last century, while parts of southern England and the French Channel coast sank by the same amount.
Rahmstorf and his colleagues have also included data from other world regions in their study – but they differ significantly, in parts, from the results of North America. “Only the data from North Carolina fit reasonably well to the reconstructed sea-level development,” says Schroeter. He criticized that the PIK researchers have attempted to confirm their data with an already existing model. “If you had tried to develop a graph solely on the basis of the data, it would have been difficult.”
But hey, no worries. While Mann tries to cook the books and ensures our waters rise, to drown us all, others are doing the opposite. They want us to believe all that water is going away, with the fishies too:
The oceans are in a worse state than previously suspected, according to an expert panel of scientists.
In a new report, they warn that ocean life is “at high risk of entering a phase of extinction of marine species unprecedented in human history”.
They conclude that issues such as over-fishing, pollution and climate change are acting together in ways that have not previously been recognised.
The impacts, they say, are already affecting humanity.
The panel was convened by the International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO), and brought together experts from different disciplines, including coral reef ecologists, toxicologists, and fisheries scientists.
Oh the humanity!:
The International Panel on the State of the Ocean !!! IPSO – modest bunch – see mission statement (front page website)
The International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO) was established by scientists with the aim of saving the Earth and all life on it.
Another Press release – Gets a shocking headline – the wait for the report (so that it can be checked) so that it is forgotten about and at the end – it is too early to say, but the trends are, etc,etc,etc
Maybe the Oceans are in a shocking state, I’m just getting too cynical to care…
BBC: World’s oceans in ‘shocking’ decline – Richard Black – 20th June 2011
“The oceans are in a worse state than previously suspected, according to an expert panel of scientists.”
“In a new report, they warn that ocean life is “at high risk of entering a phase of extinction of marine species unprecedented in human history”.
The International Panel on the State of the Ocean !!! IPSO
This is getting beyond satire ‘panel for the State of the ocean’ but no doubt lots more UN jobs and research required, plus urgent action and control of the oceans.
“The findings are shocking,” said Alex Rogers, IPSO’s scientific director and professor of conservation biology at Oxford University.
“Its report will be formally released later this week.”
Its worse than we thought (they considered)
”…As we considered the cumulative effect of what humankind does to the oceans, the implications became far worse than we had individually realised.”
Batten down the hatches….we’re all going down!
Ok, so now this is a good time for a top 10 list. The top 10 reasons why climate model predictions always fail
A peer-reviewed paper published online today in the journal Geophysical Research Letters shows that drought of Western North America was considerably worse during the Medieval Warming Period than at the end of the 20th century. The paper also shows much more variation and extremes in the drought record over the past 5200 years than since the advent of industrialization and rising CO2 levels in the latter 20th century. The proxy records clearly show no correlation of drought with the claimed steady CO2 levels until ~ 1950 and subsequent steady rise.
Oh yeah….it’s settled science alright.