2012 Poll Watch – Wisconsin, Iowa and National

A few of the interesting polls from the recent week. The regional ones are from the DailyKos outfit (PPP) so…..

First up is last Friday's PPP poll of 666 (hmmmm) Wisconsin Republicans:

Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you most like to see as the Republican candidate for President next year?

• Romney – 17%
• Palin – 16%
• Pawlenty – 12%
• Bachmann – 11%
• Cain – 10%
• Gingrich – 10%
• Paul – 10%
• Huntsman – 2%
• Not sure / someone else – 14%

Without Palin

• Romney – 19%
• Pawlenty – 15%
• Bachmann – 14%
• Gingrich – 14%
• Cain – 11%
• Paul – 11%
• Huntsman – 3%
• Not sure / someone else – 14%

Favorable/Unfavorable opinion:

• Gingrich – 28/49
• Palin – 66/28
• Romney – 46/32
• Ryan – 80/11

Curious how Romney didn't fare better in Wisconsin…still not able to get out of the teens. Without Palin in the race Pawlenty gains 3 while Newt gains 4. Cain only got 1 without Palin which is another surprise but I'm guessing name recognition is the big factor here.

Onto PPP's Iowa poll of 481 Republicans, released today, which actually gave Cain some surprising numbers given that same name recognition thing:

Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as the Republican candidate for President next year?

• Romney – 21%
• Cain – 15%
• Palin – 15%
• Gingrich – 12%
• Bachmann – 11%
• Pawlenty – 10%
• Paul – 8%
• Huntsman – *
• Someone else / Undecided – 8%

Without Palin:

• Romney – 26%
• Cain – 16%
• Gingrich – 15%
• Bachmann – 14%
• Paul – 11%
• Pawlenty – 10%
• Huntsman – 1%
• Someone else / Undecided – 8%

While Cain had a great showing here he only gained one point without Palin in the race.

Favorable / Unfavorable

• Gingrich – 39/41
• Palin – 59/31
• Romney – 51/34
• Bachmann – 53/16
• Pawlenty – 48/18
• Cain – 38/24
• Paul – 42/29
• Santorum – 29/18
• Johnson – 4/18
• Huntsman – 7/23
• Roemer – 4/21

Gingrich had a larger unfavorable then favorable in a Republican poll…..

Yup, those gaffes are hurting.

Pawlenty had a low unfavorable number but still came in 6th place behind both Gingrich and Bachmann. Not a good showing for Pawlenty at first glance…

But then they followed up with some two person races:

• Romney – 48%
• Palin – 41%

• Pawlenty – 41%
• Romney – 41%

• Romney – 48%
• Cain – 34%

• Romney – 46%
• Bachmann – 38%

He ties Romney in a two person race. Of course Pawlenty has already spent a little bit of time in Iowa, while Romney hasn't and neither has Palin.

Onto CNN's national poll of 473 Republicans, which came out last Friday:

Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else.

• Rudy Giuliani 16%
• Mitt Romney 15%
• Sarah Palin 13%
• Ron Paul 12%
• Herman Cain 10%
• Newt Gingrich 8%
• Michele Bachmann 7%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Buddy Roemer *
• Someone else (vol.) 3%
• None/ No one (vol.) 5%
• No opinion 2%

Without Giuliani

• Romney 19%
• Palin 15%
• Paul 13%
• Cain 11%
• Gingrich 11%
• Bachmann 7%
• Pawlenty 5%
• Huntsman 3%
• Santorum 2%
• Johnson 2%
• Roemer 1%
• Someone else (vol.) 3%
• None/ No one (vol.) 6%
• No opinion 2%

Without Giuliani or Palin

• Romney 21%
• Paul 15%
• Cain 13%
• Gingrich 12%
• Bachmann 9%
• Pawlenty 5%
• Huntsman 3%
• Santorum 3%
• Johnson 2%
• Roemer 1%
• Someone else (vol.) 5%
• None/ No one (vol.) 9%
• No opinion 2%

National polls are cool for headlines but the primaries will depend on those early states and I just can't see Rudy winning those.

Next I'm going to read some names and ask how you would feel if each of them won the Republican presidential nomination next year. As I read each name, please tell me whether you would feel enthusiastic, pleased but not enthusiastic, displeased but not upset, or upset if that person were the Republican nominee?

Enthusiastic/Pleased

• Palin – 26/30
• Paul – 20/43
• Romney – 20/49
• Gingrich – 16/34
• Giuliani – 27/41

And finally only 16% said they were happy with the field so far. With only a few putting their name into the hat that doesn't surprise me but once the field settles that number should climb. Rudy looks to be gaining some steam nationally, but he isn't it, yet. Huck would be, but he isn't in. Christie would be, but he isn't in. Hell, Palin isn't in, yet.

Curt

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