Gallup Poll: Drop in Obama’s Approval Rating One Of The Largest In Decades

Feb 2, 2009 article from the Washington Independent on Rasmussen’s accuracy of registered voters, compared to others.

Other pollsters, whose results sometimes vary greatly from Rasmussen’s, respect the rival firm’s process and its ability to grab headlines. Brent Goldrick, a vice president at Financial Dynamics who conducts the monthly Hotline-Diageo poll, was surprised at the closeness of Rasmussen’s generic ballot poll. His most recent poll, conducted in the days after President Barack Obama’s inauguration, gave Democrats a 46-22 lead in the Congressional generic ballot, and gave Democrats in Congress an approval rating 23 points higher than the Republicans. “As the Republicans have become a little more engaged in the policy debate,” said Goldrick, “it doesn’t surprise me that numbers would come up from 22 percent.”

It’s hard for pollsters to knock Rasmussen’s accuracy, especially its election polling. The final pre-election Hotline-Diageo poll had given Barack Obama a 50-45 point lead over John McCain, while the final Rasmussen Reports poll gave Obama a 52-46 lead. Both were close to the result, but Rasmussen was closest.

But where Rasmussen Reports really distinguishes itself, and the reason it’s so often cited by conservatives, is in its issue polling. Before the stimulus debate began, Rasmussen asked voters whether they’d favor stimulus plans that consisted entirely of tax cuts or entirely of spending. Tax cuts won every time, and Republicans began citing this when they argued for a tax-cut-only stimulus package.

Every week that the economic stimulus package was being debated by Congress, Rasmussen asked voters whether they “favor[ed] or oppose[ed] the economic recovery package proposed by Barack Obama and the Congressional Democrats.” While other pollsters, such as Gallup and CBS News, found stimulus support rising as high as 60 percent, Rasmussen never saw it rise above 45 percent. It was the only pollster to find support for the plan falling below opposition, in a poll conducted on February 2 and 3. Not only did Bill Kristol get an early look at the data and use it to make the case against the plan, Republicans such as Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) cited Rasmussen to argue that support for the Democratic version of the stimulus was tumbling. At a Feb. 10 briefing, Pence quibbled with a reporter who cited Gallup instead of Rasmussen.

“If we’re gonna talk polls for a minute,” said Pence, “and in the communications shop at a conference we occasionally look at polls, is support for the stimulus bill has been dropping ever week since it was first introduced. I expect there’ll be more polls that come out that demonstrate that public support is continuing to drop using the same methods and the same research.” A poll being conducted that day and the day after would actually reveal that President Obama’s campaign for the stimulus was driving its support back up into the mid-40s. Still, the Rasmussen poll, buttressing other media polls that showed stimulus support lagging the president’s own ratings, was invaluable to Republican arguments that they were standing with the country against an unpopular bill.

Scott Rasmussen is well aware of how Republicans use his polling to make their arguments. “Republicans right now are citing our polls more than Democrats because it’s in their interest to do so,” he said on Monday. “I would not consider myself a political conservative — that implies an alignment with Washington politics that I don’t think I have.”

Suck it up, Sanchez… you’ve been had if you think you can compare ABC/WaPo to the pros and their track record.