The Uncertain Future of Iraq

Introduction excerpt from Michael Totten’s The Future of Iraq Pt. IV:

Getting an accurate reading of Iraqi public opinion is hard. It might be impossible. I’ve seen Iraqis cheer American soldiers, and I’ve seen some Iraqis hug American soldiers in Fallujah, Ramadi, and Baghdad. A few weeks ago, though, hundreds of thousands celebrated when Americans evacuated Iraqi cities as stipulated by the Status of Forces Agreement.

It’s theoretically possible that what we’ve seen is not contradictory. Some Iraqis are pro-American. Others are not. Those who celebrated when Americans left may very well be, at least for the most part, different Iraqis than those I’ve seen who greeted Americans warmly.

Iraqi public opinion, though, is famously contradictory. And Iraqi public opinion as stated by Iraqis themselves is notoriously unreliable.

Most Iraqis, like most Arabs everywhere, are extremely polite and hospitable. It’s a guidebook cliché, but it’s a guidebook cliché for a reason. Their culture requires them to welcome foreigners, and they take that requirement seriously. Most will conceal any negative opinions they may have against a visitor personally or even the visitor’s country – and this is true even for visitors from enemy countries. They don’t mean to be deceptive. They’re just being nice.

There’s another problem with picking up the mood of the street – politics. For decades Iraqis have lived either in fear of the state or in fear of militias. They had to learn to keep their opinions to themselves if they wanted to live.

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I asked Sergeant Nick Franklin if he could help me arrange an interview with one of the Iraqis the Army trusts to provide real information. I was tired of trying to learn about Iraq through the lens of the United States military, and tired of asking Iraqis what they thought while they were in the presence of American soldiers.

What were Iraqis saying when Americans weren’t in the room? That’s what I wanted to know. Even if I had disembedded myself from the Army and wandered around Iraq by myself, I still wouldn’t be able to figure that out because I’m an American, too.

Read Michael Totten’s entire interview with “Sayid”, an Iraqi “straight shooter” that the Army’s been using as an information source for years, who more or less tells it like it is, as he understands it.

And don’t forget on your way out the door, there:

You tip waiters in restaurants, right? I can’t go all the way to Iraq and write these dispatches for free. Travel in the Middle East is expensive, and I have to pay my own way. If you haven’t donated in the past, please consider contributing now.

Also, although I disagree with him politically on perspective and “false pretenses” charge, check out Thomas Ricks’ blog for his series of entries, Iraq the Unraveling (his latest, XVIII).