Obama Afghanistan advisors to recommend Bush template strategy

It was just three days ago that Dave Noble and I were carrying on a debate on Wordsmith’s Afghanistan thread.

In addition to debating just who was “reconcilable” and who was a “Taliban”, I stated my opinion that without substantial changes in Pakistan policy towards their own militants, Afghanistan could very well be a waste of military resources. Add more troops and the US/NATO forces can push back enemy lines into Pakistan…. temporarily. But it will be nothing more than a revolving door of never-ending battles until Pakistan starts pulling it’s weight on their side of the border.

Unlike Iraq, Afghanistan is a less educated country with limited urban centers, and composed mostly of poorer tribal areas with no nationalized identity. They throw their allegiance to whomever is winning the back yard battle, and look to see who can offer them the most in return for their loyalty. And sometimes that loyalty is given in exchange for the privilege of staying alive.

I also said I believe that had the US instead deposited the troops in Afghanistan instead of Iraq, the situation would be no different… and likely worse because of the larger US footprint… giving the perception of the US as occupiers instead of defenders. Afghanistan is simply not as ripe for an “awakening” for sundry reasons.

Mata: But what you fail you understand is you could take all 150K plus Iraq troops, put them into Afghanistan then… or now…. and the “success” will be no different. In fact, with that high a US footprint in the country, you would have NO “reconcilables” on which to speculate. Afghanistan-Pakistan is a completely different battle and problem.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates himself confirms this, saying just recently:

I’ve been very concerned about an open-ended commitment of increasing numbers of troops for a variety of reasons, including the size of our footprint in Afghanistan, and my worry that the Afghans come to see us as not their partners and allies, but as part of their problem.”

Finally, I brought up the “awakening/poster child” reconcilable, Mullah Abdul Salaam … a former Taliban tribal leader up until 2001 and the US intervention, and finally lending his support to the Afghanistan government in the past year, assuming the district governorship of Musa Qala.

But I also pointed out that it was premature to call this fragile alliance a success.

Mata: In short, these tribal leaders (at least the one’s who are alive) are opportunists… not Taliban. So they pick up a Taliban badge to wear when they are the big shots in the ‘hood. However they only choose the winning side. If the Taliban start winning in their back yard, they will not be “reconcilable”. If the NATO coalition starts getting the upper hand, they will be more flexible.

Even now, I wonder how long Salaam will hold with his alliance with the centralized government. He’s quite disgruntled with reconstruction efforts promised by the government, calling them liars. It is still premature to call Salaam and Musa Qala a success since the denizens are caught between the two warring powers. The Taliban think they are traitors, the Afghan government thinks they are Taliban. If he goes down under the most ideal conditions to date, there goes the rest of the so-called “moderate Taliban”.

One of the main reasons an “awakening”, or swaying “reconcilables” is less ripe in Afghanistan is that the government is not as organized and competent as the much younger Iraq government. Poor tribal villages with no urban features and modernization have little to gain when aligning themselves with Kabul… incapable of providing the improvements.

As a result, the tribal areas are not seeing any benefits to cooperating with a centralized government. This is all about lack of infrastructure, and money. Afghanistan, unlike Iraq, is not a mineral rich nation.

Afghanistan requires a completely different strategy, and equipment… as our Iraq transplantees are quickly learning. The body armor worn by our warriors, and their heavy armored transports are bogging them down in the Afghanistan terrain. Also not helpful, they are now subject to the NATO rules of engagement.

But there is another difference – the “hearts and minds” battle must also be altered because of the different third world infrastructure and education level of the Afghans. Just as Bush had put the troops and civilian contractors to work in Iraq – building roads, schools, hospitals, power plants, water systems, plumbing, etc – the same is even more vital in Afghanistan. But at least Iraq had *some* to start with.

In Iraq, American forces could win over remote farmlands by swaying urban centers. In Afghanistan, there’s little connection between the farmlands and the mudhut villages that pass for towns.

In Iraq, armored vehicles could travel on both the roads and the desert. Here [in Afghanistan], the paved roads are mostly for outsiders – travelers, truckers and foreign troops; to reach the populace, American forces must find unmapped caravan routes that run through treacherous terrain, routes not designed for their modern military vehicles.

This part of the battle requires not adding more soldiers than ground commanders deem necessary, but focusing on building roads that were never there, and training a population that has lost the basic farming knowledge for generations to war.

Mata: I think the picture of Afghanistan has yet to be painted. Were it possible for both Pakistan and Afghanistan to hold the jihad movements at bay and thrive as more liberated Islamic nations (think UAE), it’s a nation that could become an agricultural supplier to the region. Was watching a special with the Nebraska guard teaching them farming, explaining that they’ve lost two generations of such knowledge to wars. Let’s face it… growing poppies is much easier than food. And more lucrative for the Taliban, who love having slave farmers, reaping crops that fund their jihad.

Apparently, my assessment is not far off the mark. Because the Obama advisory team on Afghanistan is putting finishing touches on a Bush initiated strategy last year that places emphasis on just that – a “civilian surge” of educators and builders, dedicated to stepping up local farming skills, infrastructure, and modernizing simple amenities in order not to lose the population to jihad elements.

Top aides to President Barack Obama are recommending that the United States combine a boost in military deployments with a steep increase in civilian experts to combat a growing insurgency in Afghanistan, senior U.S. officials said Wednesday.

Several hundred civilians from various U.S. government agencies — from agronomists to economists and legal experts — will be deployed to Afghanistan to reinforce the nonmilitary component in Kabul and the existing provincial reconstruction teams in the countryside, officials said.

A soon-to-be-concluded review of Afghanistan policy that Obama is expected to act on and announce next week builds on steps first endorsed by the Bush administration last year, the officials said. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the review has not yet been completed.

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The move to add hundreds of civilian aides under Eikenberry and his top staffers is similar to President George W. Bush’s “surge” in Iraq but will be on a smaller scale, the officials said.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Wednesday before meeting with British Foreign Secretary David Miliband that the administration was working on “an integrated strategy” to train the Afghan military and police as well as to support “governance, rule of law, judicial systems (and) economic opportunities.”

Similarly, defense officials said Wednesday they expect Obama to stress the importance of the Afghanistan review’s non-military components.

This is not to say the US troops have not already been involved in this work until now. Take, for example, the mission of the Nebraska National Guard that I had mentioned to Dave Noble in those thread conversations.

BAGRAM AIR FIELD, Afghanistan (3/12/09) – As the noon sun crept toward the mountains west of Janquadam, children ran from all corners of the village, greeting the group of Soldiers from the 28th Forward Agri-business Development Team, Feb. 28.

On this warm February day, the team was on a mission to help a blind farmer develop his fields and build a new vineyard to eventually grow grapes in.

The ADT, a National Guard unit deployed from Nebraska, has come to Afghanistan to assist, teach, train and educate the farmers on better farming techniques and introduce the farmers to grasses and alfalfa for better animal health.

After exchanging hellos with locals, the guardsman set to work measuring and marking the field for the new vineyard as well as taking soil samples.

While the Soldiers worked, children swarmed all around them offering home-made sling shots for a dollar each. Some troops paid the children for their wares, while others offered up whatever they could – candy, gum, pens, gloves. Soon, smiling children played in the field and some even assisted them in their tasks.

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The 28th has more plans for Janquadam including installing grain storage bins, planting fruit and nut trees, working with animal health, water management, training and education in tractor maintenance, setting up green houses and underground storage for vegetables.

The future of ADT operations is simple explained Sattelberg – grow this nation into a thriving country of different fruits and vegetables. “The goal is a continuation of the projects from one ADT rotation to the next,” said Sattelberg. “Several teams are either on the ground or being identified for a potential rotation. We are here doing one field at a time through demonstration farms as well as with other projects.”

The demonstration crops afford the farmers an opportunity to learn a variety of methods for growing crops and then allow the local farmers to try different techniques for growing crops in their own fields.
About half the unit has been deployed before and all of the 52-member team volunteered for the deployment. The 28th works in four provinces – Bamyan, Panjshir, Parwan and Kapisa. Four other ADTs operate across Afghanistan with more on the way.

Similar work as been going on, also unheralded by the media for years, in Afghanistan on roads. One example is The Nuristan Provincial Reconstruction Team of US/Afghanistan engineers.

NURISTAN PROVINCE, Afghanistan, Sept. 4, 2007 — The roads of Afghanistan can be treacherous paths to travel but the Nuristan Provincial Reconstruction Team and local construction workers, who travel them daily, are doing their best to improve them.

The Nuristan Provincial Reconstruction Team assessed the ongoing construction of a road running from Titin to Kordar, Aug. 22. The road will eventually run through the rest of the Nuristan Province

The construction of the road, an Afghanistan Engineer District managed project, began in June 2006. It will make it easier and more safe for Afghan National Security Forces and Coalition forces to conduct their security patrols and expand the number of troops present in the area.

During this trip, the Nuristan PRT and Company C, 1st Battalion, 158th Infantry Regiment soldiers found themselves with the tires of one Humvee within an inch of the edge of the road, looking down the side of a cliff, as it disintegrated beneath them.

As the sun started to go down, it was time to get the truck moved before it got dark. Army 2nd Lt. Jonathan Reabe, from Whiteland, Ind., of Company C, 1st Battalion, 158th Infantry, decided to put the Humvee on jacks. The soldiers then manipulated the front wheels so they could turn away from the eroding mountain and drive the vehicle out of danger.

This episode further emphasized the importance of improving the roads in the province.

“A road through the area will allow the villages along the road easier access to government services and commerce, and it will facilitate economic growth in the area,” said Navy Lt. Stanley Lam, of Seattle, Wash., with the Nuristan Provincial Reconstruction Team.

By keeping the US footprint dedicated to reconstructive aid instead of NATO military posturing, the natives’ view of the US is apt to encourage cooperation both both the coalition. Let NATO assume the “bad guy occupier” for a change, and allow American to take the lead as the builder of urban amenties. Then each tribal area has the opportunity to travel to other areas of the country, and provide a network that would encourage a more nationalized identity.

Simultaneously, the centralized government must be whipped into shape more quickly, with concrete avenues to provide road networks, security, and monetary standards for the nation.

All would go a long way towards winning the hearts and minds of the Afghan people, giving them pride in a developing nation, and less apt to be tolerant of the destructive Taliban and jihad movements in their midst.

Until Pakistan starts to rein in the troublemakers, our hopes for security remain unstable. But if we can keep each area secure enough to make improvements, one by one the Afghan tribes may actually fight together as a unified nation.