Private-sector economists believe the U.S. economy fell into recession last spring and now expect a sharp contraction in the fourth quarter of this year after slashing their forecasts for gross domestic product, a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey said on Monday.

The bank’s quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters also predicted non-farm payrolls would shrink by an average 222,400 per month during the last quarter of the year, nearly five times the pace of monthly job losses forecast when the previous survey was taken in August. The previous estimate was for 45,400 jobs lost per month in the quarter.

The forecasters survey also said the U.S. economy entered recession April and that the downturn would last for 14 months.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE4AG4KV20081117?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true

Obama will have lots of flexibility. It’s not like the Iraqis want the US to stay longer. In this negotiation, we were pressing for a longer occupation; the Iraqis wanted us to leave sooner. This agreement can be renegotiated at any time.

The biggest heat of this SOFA was not the timetable. That’s another ‘we were only there for WMD’s” red herring the press likes to pick up because of the traditional, elementary argument about troops in Iraq. The biggest issue was jurisdiction over troops and civilian contractors. But that’s less sexy a beef for the press to use as a headline.

INRE the withdrawal: the one that Obama proposed is similar (but too quick to remove equipment) than the withdrawal that is planned. AND, I might add, has been planned since the beginning… A withdrawal to happen as soon as the Iraqis were up to speed on providing their own security and self-governing. This is no concession to Obama or the DNC. This is the plan, progressing as was originally constructed.

The only difference (other than leaving the equipment) is whether the SOFA contained language about flexibility of withdrawal because of on the ground events.

The Iraqis have said over and over that if they need help, they do want to delay continued withdrawals. But for national pride and perception reasons, they didn’t want the language in there.

But as you said, they’ll renegotiate this as they need… and that includes requesting troops to hang around a little longer if they find themselves not up to the task.

We are currently spending as much money in Iraq (in the post-”victory” phase) in 4 months as we are spending on all of our intelligence services on one year.

Are you assuming – with our presence on the ground in Iraq, and moving among the people – that we are getting no valuable intelligence? Are you suggesting that, once removed from the theatre, our cyber “listening” and intelligence will improve?

The problem with that logic that I see is cyber listening and wiretaps are a huge issue here. If Pelosi/Reid pull the Obama strings, we’ll find that ability lessened, not strengthened.

And our best intelligence is HUMINT…. how are we going to get that being so removed from the area?

If Iraq goes back to the terror state, the Al Qaeda terrorist will have access to oil money and a base of operations. Even duh-Bambi is smart enough to know that. But you never know with duh-Bambi, he seems to like terrorist friends so who knows.

The Iraqi’s are smart enough to know they cannot keep Iran at bay without the US troops.

We are currently spending as much money in Iraq (in the post-”victory” phase) in 4 months as we are spending on all of our intelligence services on one year. The threats to our national security from Islamic terrorism are, in descending order: biological, dirty nuclear, and explosive nuclear weapons. Withdrawing from Iraq sooner will allow us to devote more assets to activities which will do vastly more to reduce the threat of terrorist attacks.

But all of this will be a matter of assessment and negotiation. Point is, there is nothing in the current accord which in any way ties the hands of the incoming administration.

- Larry Weisenthal/Huntington Beach

Visualize the path of least resistance.