US intelligence: Iran will be able to build first nuclear bomb by February 2009
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
October 21, 2008, 8:46 PM (GMT+02:00)
US intelligence’s amended estimate, that Iran will be ready to build its first bomb just one month after the next US president is sworn in, is disclosed by DEBKAfile’s Washington sources as having been relayed as a guideline to the Middle East teams of both presidential candidates, Senators John McCain and Barack Obama.The information prompted the assertion by Democratic vice presidential nominee Joseph Biden in Seattle Sunday, Oct. 19: “It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy.”
McCain retorted Tuesday, Oct. 21: “America does not need a president that needs to be tested. I’ve been tested. I was aboard the Enterprise off the coast of Cuba. I’ve been there.”)
DEBKAfile’s military sources cite the new US timeline: By late January, 2009, Iran will have accumulated enough low-grade enriched uranium (up to 5%) for its “break-out” to weapons grade (90%) material within a short time. For this, the Iranians have achieved the necessary technology. In February, they can move on to start building their first nuclear bomb.
US intelligence believes Tehran has the personnel, plans and diagrams for a bomb and has been running experiments to this end for the past two years. The UN International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna last week asked Tehran to clarify recent complex experiments they conducted in detonating nuclear materials for a weapon, but received no answer.
The same US evaluation adds that the Iranian leadership is holding off its go-ahead to start building the bomb until the last minute so as to ward off international pressure to stop at the red line.
This development together with the galloping global economic crisis will force the incoming US president to go straight into decision-making without pause on Day One in the Oval Office. He will have to determine which urgent measures can serve best for keeping a nuclear bomb out of the Islamic republic’s hands – diplomatic or military – and how to proceed if those measures fail.
His knowledge of the challenge colored Sen. Biden’s additional words in Seattle: “Remember I said it standing here if you don’t remember anything else I said. Watch, we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy.”
Israel’s political and military leaders also face a tough dilemma that can no longer be put off of whether to strike Iran’s nuclear installations militarily in the next three months between US presidencies before the last window closes, or take a chance on coordination with the next president.
Waiting for the “international community” to do the job of stopping Iran, as urged by governments headed by Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert – and strongly advocated Tzipi Livni, foreign minister and would-be prime minister – has been a washout. Iran stands defiantly on the threshold of a nuclear weapon.
If anyone finds confirmation of the following, please post it, and I will update the article….
The UN International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna last week asked Tehran to clarify recent complex experiments they conducted in detonating nuclear materials for a weapon, but received no answer.
Reminder:
Author of “Reparations and America’s 2nd Civil War
Reparations and America’s 2nd Civil War: Malensek, Scott: 9798864028674: Amazon.com: Books
If Iran is that close, one has to assume Israel is right on top of this and monitoring everything. The big question might be, how much longer is Israel going to wait? It’s a scary thought, and the possibility that Obama might be president if/when it happens… oh, lord.
Israel will have to act fast, real fast if Obama is elected, because Obama has no clue what to do in a crisis like that. And if Israel acts, guess what? Obama will blame Israel for the whole situation.
P.S.: If Obama wins, I think Bush should act before he is sworn in. If it is McCain, then Bush should let the decision in McCain’s hands.
If Israel does anything at all, it would most likely be just before the election… if not then, certainly before the inauguration (if Obama is actually elected).
I suspect that much as they would like to have a bomb, they are not there yet, nor will they be for a while. The Iranians can’t build oil refineries, and they have working models. They can’t build working tanks, despite having working models. They can’t build F-5 copies, even though this is the easiest jet fighter the US has ever build. The can’t build their own nuclear pile, even though this can be done with 1940’s technology. They have access to tools and materials that physicists could only dream of 50 years ago, but they are crap.
They have centrifuges, buying off the shelf, building to plans.
They have uranium ore.
They have too much molybdynum in their uranium, and so far their chemists haven’t cleaned it up yet. They can’t make clean yellowcake, even though they have a turnkey Chinese plant. Too much moly (big nuclear cross section). They went straight from dirty yellowcake to UF6, with MoF4, to centrifuge cascades, missing out a thermal diffusion plant. This is what is know as dumb.
They can make a device, in time, but will not know if it works, which means they have to test. They have to test before they weaponize.
They will have real problems making a warhead that will fit onto one of their fire crackers (a North Korean copy of a Chinese copy of a 1950’s Soviet missile designed by captured German scientists).
They need to test to see how small they can make a warhead. They can’t do what the Americans did and use a bomb truck for 10 years before switching to missiles. They have to go the missile route. So they need to test. After a test they will need at least 2 years to weaponize. Two years is a loooong time. Let them test, then whack them.
Given the state of their scientific community, which is leaving as fast as it can, they can have a reactor up and running and still not have 15kg of plutonium at the end of a decade.
Israel is totally screwed. The national anthem of Iran practically calls for the obliteration of Israel.
Doc, I don’t understand why they’d need to mount on missiles. The terrorist truck serves their delivery means better (or submarine for that matter).
how much longer is Israel going to wait?
Right after our election is decided. It doesn not matter who wins they will act between then and Jan 2009. They can’t afford to take any chances. And why should we stand aside and let them ahndle this on their own? Does the government not take into account that over a hundred thousand of our troops are right next door in Iraq at risk? It would be catastrophic if Iran should get the bomb and somehow take it to Iraq ind explode it. They surely wouldn’t need a missle for that. That would strike a blow to the Great Satan. All we have done for the last five years is give Iran time to perfect this. You would have thought we learned a lesson with Saddam Hussein. We gave him time also. I will always believe his WMD are in Syria. The reason we are not doing anything about Iran is the democrats. They are just waiting for Bush to do something like this so they can impeach him. They are traitors all and have shown time and time again that they care nothing for this country but only their own power..
Damn scary if you ask me. I mean, these are ppl who totally embrace mutual destruction… If they go they gonna try to take the world with them. That’s just unnerving to me.
“Doc, I don’t understand why they’d need to mount on missiles. The terrorist truck serves their delivery means better (or submarine for that matter).”
@Scott Malensek: Thats them sending the world a message. “We dont have to hide it… we are here”
Scott thats them sending a message, saying we got one, and we are here.
Yeah, this is damn scary. Hopefully, Israel will bomb the hell out of that terrorist sanctuary and soon. The sooner, the better.
That would be completely stupid. So, yeah, of course Obama would do that.
You are all right. This is not good. And who do we have to thank?
If you all recall, the Council on Foreign Relations assigned Obama to the Middle-East. It’s happened on his watch. And what a splendid job he’s done with it so far, huh? He’s already said he plans to reduce America’s ties to Israel. And many young Jews like Silverman still love the hell out of Barry?
If Iran finishes their nuke by February, they are not going to sit on it. They will use it at the first opportunity. Even if we start assembling forces to go into Iran, it might take time Israel may not have. We are already busy in two other theaters. Oh and don’t forget, Obama wants to put us in Darfur as well. But he still intends to gut military spending and financing.
To the youths of America. If Obama wins the presidency and Iran attacks Israel, there will be a selective service draft. The military draw-downs and budget cuts during and as a result of the Clinton has gauranteed it.
Mutual destruction… Shoot a nuke at Israel they shoot one back. End of those continents. Hopefully they wont trigger a nuclear winter world wide.