Look out doug1, new CBS poll:

“(CBS) In a sign that the race for president has returned to about where it was before the first presidential debate, the Obama-Biden ticket leads the McCain-Palin ticket 47 percent to 43 percent among registered voters in a new CBS News poll.

The Obama-Biden ticket led by a wider margin, nine percentage points, in a CBS News poll released last Wednesday, before Joe Biden and Sarah Palin faced off in the vice presidential debate. Obama-Biden led by five percentage points on Sept. 25.

In the new poll, the Democratic ticket leads by 3 percentage points, 48 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters. ”

Within the margin of error among “LIKELY VOTERS” you know, unlike “REGISTERED VOTERS” LIKELY voters are the ones that actually vote.

The big media is of course completely in the tank for Obama, so much so that it is not thought disqualifying that Gwen Ifill will moderate tonight’s vice presidential debate despite having penned a book praising Obama and timed for release to Inauguration Day. [...]

check. I agree.

ohn McCain has a wind in his face, but he had a much stronger one blowing at him a year ago when his campaign was broke and all but dead. McCain was given a gift by Nancy Pelosi on Monday when the House Speaker let her election season mask slip and let rip with a snarl that startled even her allies in the House and signaled that the would be Triumvers of Obama, Reid and Pelosi will not be reaching across the aisle if Obama makes it to 1600.

Camel crap. Pelosi has absolutely NOTHING to do in bearing gifts for McCain. Her election season mask slipped out… and what were the consequences??? where??? …Yes, there wasn’t a passage of the Bail-out Bill in the House the first time …so what?! There is no evidence for this thesis that Obama’s camp has had a set-back due to Pelosi’s “gift.”

McCain is a nationalist, and the vast majority of Americans are not of the hard-left variety represented by the leadership of the Obama coalition. That vast majority are center-right, and they have 30 plus days in which to first vent at the state of the market and then assess the men who would lead them. “Not Ready To Lead” has been Team McCain’s mantra about Obama from mid-summer forward, and it remains the cloud over Obama in many minds, while many more simply worry about his hard-left views. John McCain led from the center on the financial rescue plan, and Obama beat a retreat to the tall grass until it was safe to come back to D.C. to vote yes, a perfect display of the choice in front of the country.

More crap. The “vast majority of Americans” have made up their minds. It’s the undecided/independent voters, those sheep late to the barn, still hanging out the fields, that are the hold-outs.

Four points down with 34 days and three debates to go against the hardest left nominee in history. If you had told John McCain that was his choice last summer, he’d have taken it in a second, and with very good reason.

NO. now McCain’s down 6-7 points with two debates to go (Palin winning, by only not meeting expectations) and the lastest NBC-WSJ post stating:

“Independent voters are starting to swing behind Barack Obama and Joe Biden, who continue to benefit from economic turmoil and the public response to their debate performances, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.”

How’s that for a more realistic account of “McCain having wind in his face”?

McCain is running out of time, energy and a clear message. Obama’s camp is beating him bloody as a Bush clone.

And what does McCain put out: “Obama is a terrorist”

THIS. WON’T. WORK.

Why? Hewitt can tell you. The MSM has decided they don’t like McCain; they’d rather have Obama.

Replaying 1976 With a Different Ending
Hugh Hewitt
Thursday, October 02, 2008

The 1976 presidential election between Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter need in a dead heat. Time Magazine printed two covers, one announcing Carter’s victory which was used, the other a “He Did It!” headline to go with the Ford upset win at the end.

Carter won by a nose, of course, and we have Iran on the brink possessing nuclear weapons as a result. But Republicans dismayed by the last week’s trend in the polls towards Obama should recall that (1) that trend reversed already and is down to four points in the most recent Gallup tracking poll, and (2) the 34 days ahead are an eternity in politics.

Jimmy Carter closed his convention with a 33 point lead in 1976.

Ford’s disastrous debate in which he declared Poland “free” occurred on October 6!

The electorate then was angry at Ford for pardoning Nixon and worried about a stagnant economy and the Georgia governor’s inexperience. And still the race ended effectively tied. Carter took 23 states with 297 electoral votes, while Ford won 27 states and 240.

There are huge differences at work today though: Obama is not a conventional Democrat but from the far left edge of his party. Jimmy Carter had served in the Navy and had executive experience as a governor. Obama served as a community organizer and his only executiv eexperince comes from hispartnership with Bill Ayers at Chicago’s Annenberg Challenge.

The Dems supporting Carter in 1976 were representatives of the party of JFK and Truman. Obama is bringing with him the forces of Kos and Michael Moore, and is partnered with Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.

The big media is of course completely in the tank for Obama, so much so that it is not thought disqualifying that Gwen Ifill will moderate tonight’s vice presidential debate despite having penned a book praising Obama and timed for release to Inauguration Day. The MSM is acting as Obama’s offensive line, blocking every bad story about him from the front pages or top of the news and somehow even managing to prop up Joe Biden, who most recently declared that FDR addressed the nation on television at the time of the stock market crash of 1929.

John McCain has a wind in his face, but he had a much stronger one blowing at him a year ago when his campaign was broke and all but dead. McCain was given a gift by Nancy Pelosi on Monday when the House Speaker let her election season mask slip and let rip with a snarl that startled even her allies in the House and signaled that the would be Triumvers of Obama, Reid and Pelosi will not be reaching across the aisle if Obama makes it to 1600.

McCain is a nationalist, and the vast majority of Americans are not of the hard-left variety represented by the leadership of the Obama coalition. That vast majority are center-right, and they have 30 plus days in which to first vent at the state of the market and then assess the men who would lead them. “Not Ready To Lead” has been Team McCain’s mantra about Obama from mid-summer forward, and it remains the cloud over Obama in many minds, while many more simply worry about his hard-left views. John McCain led from the center on the financial rescue plan, and Obama beat a retreat to the tall grass until it was safe to come back to D.C. to vote yes, a perfect display of the choice in front of the country.

Four points down with 34 days and three debates to go against the hardest left nominee in history. If you had told John McCain that was his choice last summer, he’d have taken it in a second, and with very good reason.

Here comes the fun part:

They said that 40% of those polled were Democrats, 25% claimed to be Republican, presumably the rest were Independent. So if you break it down and consider that 40% of the general populous are Democrat & 40% are Republicans, therein lies the explanation. So if one calculates the mathematics out even without the independents, Obama should have won the debate by their poll by a full 15%. He didn’t, He won it by 13%. That means that independents are not 50-50, but swinging towards McCain.

Similar creative math appears in the Gallop poll, where Obama beat McCain 46% to 34%.

Okay let’s play like the big boy networks and do some fussy math:

Well there is a slight problem with this. That totals to 80%. Of those polled, only 63% even watched the debate. 37% decided who won the debate without even seeing it. 12% claiming they saw news coverage of it, which of course would have been mostly biased, since of all the network news shows, only Fox said McCain won. So we have 63+12=75. Notice that does not equal the 80%. Most people are honest enough that they are not going to declare a winner on a debate they never saw and if they thought it were close, would not announce either as the winner. Obamites are not so honest. So if we take the 37% who did not see it and just to be fair subtract the 12% who saw coverage of it that leaves us with 25%. Taking into consideration the 40% Dem/40% Rep/20% Ind cross section of people that would make the non watching Obamites 10%. we subtract that from Obama’s 46% and we get 36% Obama to 34% McCain. Well within the margin of error.

But wait, now let’s look again at that 12%. For sake of argument let’s say that 12 percent got their coverage from 2%-Fox, 2%-CNN, 2%-MSNBC, 2%-CBS, 2%-ABC, 2%-NBC. Fox & CNN offset each other. So we deduct the 8% bias from the Obama percentage and McCain won the debate 32% to Obama’s 28% & 3% of those who actually watched the debate were undecided.

Like I said, you and Mike can quote polls until the steam pours from your ears. The only poll that counts to me is on Nov. Until then, ask 1000 uninformed people a question, and you’ll get 1000 uninformed answers. What about the other 150 mil or so that vote?

Unless you have a national vote now, amongst the viewers who watched the debate themselves, I suspect you’ll never know who “won”. And frankly, I think it’s a disservice to the nation for talking heads to prounounce winners and losers. They do not think for me. They do not decide for me.

All polls function as is propaganda. The sheeple figure if everyone thinks that’s true, how can it be wrong? Hate polls. Always will. But then, what would those bozos do for a living if there were no polls?

The bar has been lowered for Obama in the debates… ala he “won” because he didn’t lose. [...]

Yet, Obama didn’t win because he didn’t lose. All the post polls out now are indicating a larger percentage of the public thinks he won. Now we have Pew’s chiming in, too:

…
The latest national poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted among 1,505 adults (including 1,258 registered voters) by landline and cell phone, suggests that three factors appear to be favoring Obama. First, more voters rate Obama’s performance in last Friday’s debate as excellent or good than say the same about McCain’s (72% vs. 59%). Obama’s leadership image also has improved. There is now almost no difference in the minds of voters as to which candidate would use better judgment in a crisis.
…

No case can be made now that Obama “”won” because he didn’t lose.” Gallop, Pew, CBS, Quinnipiac and Diageo all find Obama won over the public more than McCain.

Round one goes to Obama. Therefore, look for the McCain camp to try a different tactic next time. Perhaps McCain will even look at Obama, give him eye contact.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixcR6Ggy4Io

again, Doug, who cares and so what? Debates are not “won and lost” based on media score cards. The public decides that. And speak only for yourself, please.

And oh, BTW… 904 people’s opinion …41% of Dems va 36% Reps and 19% self-professed (if registered voters at all.. do they show proof?) “Indy”s? Ummmm. population of the nation is 300 mil. Not sure of the latest breakdown of adults vs kids, nor participating voters vs non.

All I can say is ask 904 uninformed people a question, and you’ll get 904 uninformed answers. Only poll that counts is November.

I repeat… so what? Celebrate now, Doug… you happy days could be limited. Ya never know.

…
Debate watchers also rate Obama’s performance higher than McCain’s. Two-thirds say Obama did an excellent or good job, while 53% believe McCain did the same. Meanwhile 30% say Obama did only fair or poor, while 44% say the same about McCain. Among Inds, Obama has a 58%/37% debate performance rating, while McCain’s is 49%/46%.
…

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/09/diageohotline_t_12.html

The polls are indicating Obama won the debate.

Not only did Obama win the debate among debate watchers, they say that their attitudes towards the Democratic candidate also improved as a result. Thirty percent of debate watchers said they came away with a more favorable image of Barack Obama, while just 14% said they had a less favorable image. On the other hand, John McCain did not fare as well. Just as many watchers said that they developed a less favorable image of John McCain — 21% — as said they gained a favorable image of McCain as a result of the debate.

…

Finally, by a fairly substantial margin, debate watchers said that Obama was the candidate who offered the best proposals for change in the debate, by a 17 percentage point margin over McCain.

Weather won’t stop them from voting, it’s something they take great pride in. Some also car pool or have their family members drive them.

How do I know? I was raised in the country, we also have had a farm in Missouri since 85, we don’t live there, but we’ve made many friends over the years during our stays, it’s a help each other out, very rural area. They are still hand painting their campaign signs, God love them!