You might want t read the title to this piece again. Yep! It’s a double whammy! At least one of these “surprises” is a little difficult to believe. That would be the Obama October surprise.
See, there is this e-mail flitting around, out on the ether, that Obama has an October surprise up his sleeve. The rumor has it that sometime in the first week, or so, of October, Joe Biden, Obama’s Vice-Presidential candidate, will announce that he is stepping down, due to health reasons, and the rumor has it that Obama will immediately replace Biden with Hillary. For obvious reasons that has a lot of people concerned.
I don’t put much stock in it, though. I mean, step back and look closely at it and it looks awfully, well… dumb! But, then again, dumb things have been known to happen in political campaigns. The manipulation of voters would be just SO obvious, don’t you think?
My friend, and fellow blogger, Texas Fred, has written a piece about it that we recommend to you. You’ll find it here.
If Senator Biden did, in fact, step down from the candidacy for Vice-President, due to health reasons, would he not also be compelled to step down from his candidacy as Senator from Delaware? Wouldn’t he owe that to his party, especially in Delaware? No, I’m just not buying into this one.
Now, on to the second October Surprise: The Osama October surprise. The New York Sun is running a story that Osama is planning a number of overseas operations timed to influence the November elections in the US.
It is reported that back during that weekend, which separated the Democratic and Republican conventions, our US military intelligence agencies, and civilian intelligence agencies, picked up a number of messages from Osama’s Al Qaeda leadership instructing local cells to be ready for “imminent instructions”. These messages have been reported to have been intercepted from multiple channels… some from couriers and some electronic messages, and some other unidentified methods of communication. You can read the article By Eli Lake, a staff reporter of the Sun, at:
Spies Warn That Al Qaeda Aims for October Surprise
You may recall that Al Qaeda did something very like this in 2004, in Spain, by blowing up Madrid commuter trains just three days before the elections there and the Socialists Workers Party was voted into power in Spain. You may also recall the recorded messages Osama released the week of the US elections, also in 2004, in which he warned of dire consequences if President Bush was re-elected. And, of course, there is the suicide bombing of the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, Pakistan, just a few days ago, which would tend to lend credence to Al Qaeda’s threats. The Sun reports that the lobby of that particular hotel has been used as a meeting place for CIA officers and Pakistanis who felt it not wise to be observed meeting at the US Embassy there in Islamabad.
My opinion on Al Qaeda’s threats is that should they carry them out, they will most certainly aid the McCain camp and not the Obama camp. But, then again, those people live in holes in the ground in some remote god forsaken wasteland far removed from the reality of the certain backlash such actions by them would cause and the danger it would bring to their continued existence.
That said… if I had to choose which of the two rumored October surprises to put my money on, it would be on the Osama October surprise. I just don’t buy the rumor of Biden stepping down. THAT would be a Godsend to the Republicans.
(J. D. Longstreet blogs daily at INSIGHT on Freedom at http://csadispatch.blogspot.com/ )
I’m not buying it either. I would love to trace these rumors back to their origin. If it were to happen, any credibility Obama may have had left would disappear. On the other hand, you will have some voters, so in love with the CLinton’s they won’t see this for what it is. But in the end, this would sink Obama.
JD, why do you think Biden stepping down is a godsend to the GOP? Right now, he’s an ideal buffoon. Obama may pick someone more adept in his wake… and more popular.
While I doubt he’d pick Hillary, or that Hillary would agree (hang… she’d be in better shape if Obama lost), there might be someone out there that can re’stimulate their base.
I just read the link from Texas Fred, and he’s Right on the money! I’m waiting to hear back from him about my being able to post on his blog.
I think this is just a rumor as well, but if they are stupid enough to try to pull it off, I think it will hurt Obama’s campaign more than it will help it. People aren’t THAT stupid – they’ll see right through him.
And I also agree that if Biden SHOULD step down, he should also step down from his seat in the Senate.
Janelle
Hillary would never take the chance to be defeated by Sarah Palin. Having lost to Obama was enough for her… but to be defeated by Sarah? No way! Her ego would never recuperate from that insult. Because let’s face it, if Hillary steps in, the race will not be between Obama and McCain, it will be between Hillary an Sarah. So forget that option.
There’s a major problem with Texas Fred’s post JD linked to above. Not his fault, mind you tho. A question of timing.
You see this rumor of Hillary replacing Biden isn’t new. I first got that email back on Sept 10th-11th. Scott did a post on the long shot of it happening on the 10th.
But Texas Fred’s opinion that Hillary “would literally jump at the chance to step into the VP slot, that is a known fact, regardless of what she or her husband say” is pure conjecture on Fred’s part, and I think without sound political backroom strategy. I am curious as to how he can state what Hillary feels with such convictions. Especially when Teflon Bill’s making the rounds announcing differently to a large audience.
Remember, if Obama is to let Biden go, he has to have Hillary safely in his pocket first. That means negotiations have to be going on now. Bill’s interview does not suggest this to be the case.
My own opinion is also conjecture. But I’m assuming that when Bill Clinton says Hillary wasn’t particularly thrilled about being Obama’s running mate, he’s speaking the truth. And I believe that. The Clinton’s aren’t back seat kind of people…
The other is the political reality that if Obama loses this, the DNC will not rerun him in 2012. And unless something major comes down between now and 2010-11, Hillary would be the likely shoe in.
Does she want to relegate herself to the back seat in the WH to possibly 2016, and depend upon the DNC winning a third term? Or would she like to see Obama fail by his own hand and judgment, and walk away with a good shot at the driver’s seat in 2012.
Nope… Hillary’s not literally leaping at a veep spot.
What the real question is, if Obama tries to back her into the corner as his and the DNC “saviour” with a last minute offering, can she dodge it without appearing the spoiler?
Its an Urban Legend…..http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/vpchange.asp
Mata….Thanks for the clarification on those things.
I don’t think Hillary would take the back seat either – not at this point anyway.
Let’s not forget if Biden steps down due to health reasons, he is also running for re-election in the Senate. If he is too ill to be the VP choice, how will that sit with being able to still retain his senate seat. I don’t see Slo Joe going quietly into the night on his government gig so ‘Bami has a better chance to win. Also, Hillary playing 2nd fiddle, no way. Two for one, baby. BJ down the hall hittin’ on Michelle?
September 23, 2008 FYI:
JERUSALEM – In spite of Sen. Barack Obama’s claims to the contrary, the Democratic presidential nominee had a close working relationship with former Weathermen terrorist leader William Ayers when the two served alongside each other on a hundred-million-dollar education foundation, according to the group’s own archived records.
The records also show Obama’s and Ayers’ foundation granted money to radical leftist activist causes.
Obama worked closely with terrorist Bill Ayers
Records show collaboration on funding leftists despite claim he’s just ‘a guy’ in neighborhood
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=76022
I know you’re aware of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge (which documents their relationship over years, plus their shared monetary responsibilities), AdrianS, back from my Aug 21st post, as well as the Philip Berg lawsuit I *know* you are aware of.
It seems World Net Daily is over a month behind the rest of us, eh? …. that’s very unlike Joe. But glad they’re finally catching up. Actually didn’t see anything new in their “breaking” story that Steve Diamond hasn’t already brought out on his website over a month ago.