Looking at several polls recently it appears the generic congressional ballot which had been in favor of the democrats for all of 07 and most of 08 has tightened. Polls for most of 08 had the Democrats up double digits poised to increase their margains in the House and Senate. Their was even talk of the Democrats having a filibuster proof majority, you need 60 votes to end a filibuster. People were talking about 58 or 59 seats for the dems, throw in liberal Republicans Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins both from Maine and Gordon Smith from Oregon and you’d have all the votes you’d needed.
However, recent polls have seen Republicans surging in the Generic Congressional vote. A USA Today/Gallup poll even has it as a 50-45 edge for Republicans. Every other poll still has the Democrats up around 5 points. The RCP average has it Democrats by 4.2%. An average of all polls taken in July gave Democrats a 12 point advantage on the generic ballot question. What is causing this turn in the Polls? I believe it is the McCain pick of Palin which has united Conservatives and bought many of them who had left back to the Republican Party.
Before the Pick of Palin Obama had a comfortable lead on McCain and many Republicans were thinking of not voting at all. Obama had around an eight point lead on McCain before the convention. Of the last twenty-four polls taken before the RNC McCain led in four and was tied in two others. Obama led in eighteen and was up by at least six points in five of the last six polls taken before the Start of the RNC. However in eleven polls taken since the end of the RNC Obama has led in just two and was tied in one. McCain now holds a 2.1% lead in the Real Clear Politics average.
With this shift in the polls has come a shift in the electorial college. The state polls have all shifted in McCain’s favor recently. States like Washington, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania shifting toward McCain could allow the Republicans to pick up some House seats, even if McCain does not carry those states in November.
09/14 Minnesota Leaning Obama »»» Toss Up McCain 227 – Obama 207
09/13 Indiana Toss Up »»» Leaning McCain McCain 227 – Obama 217
09/11 Florida Toss Up »»» Leaning McCain McCain 216 – Obama 217
09/11 North Carolina Leaning McCain »»» Solid McCain 216 – Obama 217
09/11 Georgia Leaning McCain »»» Solid McCain 216 – Obama 217
09/09 North Carolina Toss Up »»» Leaning McCain McCain 189 – Obama 217
09/09 New Jersey Solid Obama »»» Leaning Obama McCain 189 – Obama 217
09/08 Washington Solid Obama »»» Leaning Obama McCain 174 – Obama 217
09/07 Pennsylvania Leaning Obama »»» Toss Up McCain 174 – Obama 217
So with the polls heading in McCain’s favor, the Generic Congressional ballot gap closing, and Congress having a 20% job approval rating can the Republicans regain control of Congress in 2008? Republicans are in great shape to pick up seats in the House and Senate. I wouldn’t bet against the Republicans retaking Congress in November.
For more from this blogger go to: TheNewConservative
in one worde NO
two HELL NO
Its not rocket science, all Obama has to do is show how Mccain is not the Common man, especially if he can connect his historical economic views to the failing housing market. Palin and waffles and lipstick
is a distraction because McCain has little substance
rawdawg, sell that koolaid to the KOS kids.
Tell you what I see. Obama is in for a rude surprise in places such as Washington. Remember, last election cycle we elected a Republican Governor. IT took three recounts, and addition of several “Lost sacks” of ballets from dead people and felons to eek out a ~23 vote win and a biased court to give Gregoire the seat. And the first thing she did was renege on her solemn campaign promises and spend the states surplus and run us into debt. The conservative didn’t even think we had a chance last time so as usual a lot of us just stayed home. But now the truth is known, there are a hell of a lot more of us than we thought and we are pissed and we are voting this year. Watch for Washington to turn solid RED this election.
And we are not unique. Oregon is looking at us and realizing that just as we were closer than we thought to a majority, so are they. They have an even smaller urban population and just like us, they have been purging fake and illegal voter registrations from their system.
It’ll be interesting to see how the elections go with so many illegals gone home to Mexico, and so many dead people and felons gone from the registrations.
Maybe we’ll finally get a sense of what the actual citizens of the US think.
And Obama is a Common Man???? Give me a break. He is the Rock Star the MSM has made him. He has no original ideas. Just the same old Liberal lines from the past 20 – 30 years. He is no politician of Change. He is a Liberal yes man and nothing more. He is doing the bidding of the Nutroots and George Soros.
SO I think the Republicans can take back CONgress??? Most likely not. I still think that the Dems will pick up a few in the House, but the Senate will probably remain the same, maybe 1 or 2 Dems pick ups at most.
Can they win back CONgress?? Yes if they keep drilling in the forefront and can latch on the coat tails of McCain adn Palin. Especially now with Palin, it is more doable. She has energized the conservatives more than I have seen them in many years. George W could not do it, since he left many conservative principles by the wayside. But with McCain and Palin out to clean house and get back to what Republicans were when they took over CONgress, it is very doable.
I was never a McCain fa, but with his pick as Palin as VP he has won me over more than any of the other VP candidates would have. The only other one would have been the Fred, but that would not happen, 2 old Geezers against the Obamassiah would never have worked.
It is still early, even though the race has been going on for 5 years it seems. There is still a lot that can happen. So we need to be on the offense and not think that since Palin’s pick has an re-energizing factor with Conservatives, there is still much to be done.
Heh, especially when the DNC runs out of money trying to prop NObama up!
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/14/obama-camp-reports-66m-in-donations-in-august/
Relax, it’s an AP story so “you know it’s true” {/sarcasm}
Freaking Obama is just a sock puppet. The only question is just who’s hand is it up his ass. I keep looking for who is close enough, but every time he talks I see Rev Wrights and Jimma Carter and Fleger and Ayers and,, well,, all their lips moving.
It was a mistake for Obama to get all the money and none to the DNC. the RNC has got a big lead in money over the DNC because of Obama’s arrogance.
Bahahahahaha
Yeah, no kidding. If dollars are soldiers (and they most certainly are) Obubba has held all his troops to protect the HQ and none to protect the rest of the country.
Now surely that is no suggestion of his arrogance,,, right?
Rawdawg, you will be in for a big surprise. Obama is done! No way can he make a come back. The new rising star is Sarah, and nothing will stop her. The country fell in love with her. Obama secret agenda is starting to show more and more everyday. What is his secret agenda ? Himself. His ego is so big and so obvious. He doesn’t give a dam about electors; he only gives a dam about himself. Obama is a complete fraud. All he wants is a power trip. He couldn’t care less about his country. When your friends have terrorism backgrounds, and your wife says it’s the first time in her life that she is proud of America, that says it all.
Obama doesn’t even know how many states the USA have, he thinks its 57 or 59, he is not sure… and he wants to be President ? Come on !
I hope, you Americans will see the light and realize that the worst thing that could happen to your country would be Obama as a President. And when you will, Democrats will loose many seats at the congress. This is what I hope for you folks… and also for us Canadians.
Wow this article has gotten more comments in less than an hour than most of mine do in days. Looks like I may be on to something.
Oh yeah baby, the dem control of the congress is looking pretty anemic
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/13/AR2008091302428.html
And this one is just so delicious
http://sweetness-light.com/archive/did-obama-turn-down-a-wall-street-career
There is still some room to go but trends are heading in the right direction.
I kind of doubt it, but I really hope so.
IfWhen McCain/Cuda get elected, it won’t really do anyone any good if the Senate and Congress are DemocRat-controlled.Not that that really means anything, since they had a Republic majority a while back and then pissed it away.
DemocRats – too corrupt.
Republicans – too stupid.
It would not even be desirable to have a repub congress yet.
Remember that any conservative worth his salt should be disgusted by the Republican controlled congress up to 2006. Just because the bozo Dems have been in charge since then does not mean that the R’s have “come to Jesus” and rediscovered their conservative roots.
One of the downsides of having such an intellectually weak opponent is that the Republicans gradually became a very unfocused and corrupt bunch. We have not yet gone through our “reformation”.
A McCain/Palin landslide where the Dems lose ground (esp any of the far left Dems) might be a best outcome.
Re-elect your Democrat Congressman because the Democrats’ Congress has done SO much for you!
wow…talk about denial-when you have to get 5 or 6 Americans before you find a single one who thinks that Congress is doing a decent job…that should be a clue that they’re not.
The Democrats’ Congress is a failure-pure and simple. They are unable to compromise and have failed on almost every campaign promise from 2006. I voted Democrats into Congress in 2006, I will not make that mistake again.
Scott did you see this one? Obama trying to establish his foreign policy creds while visiting Iraq:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/09152008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/obama_tried_to_stall_gis_iraq_withdrawal_129150.htm
Missy, I saw that too. Pretty sick imo. It just reiterates the point I’ve been making for six years now: Democrat need a war to oppose more than Republicans need one to support, and as such many Democrats continually work to keep the war going-that is exactly what Senator Obama just did.
You have more of a chance of corruption with Democraps in charge, as a matter of fact it’s a certainty. Rangel, Jefferson etc. The difference is that R’s resign or are voted out. Democraps stay and are reelected by their brain dead supporters. Somehow they think their piece of the pie makes all the corruption ok.
my husband and i had this conversation lastnight actually. it was interesting, he didn’t realize that congress has such a low approval rating. he is very nervous about obama being elected, his job is a union job, other than our benefits they do nothing for us. his union keeps sending literature about obama nad other democrats, we will be using it as fire starter. but we talked about a repub controlled congress and he was excited and i told him that it wasn’t a for sure good thing. we are waiting with bated breath, we are getting campaign signs for the first time ever. my husband actually is voting, he either forgets or chooses not to, but he is voting because he is afraid of the corruption in washington d.c.
Scott, you made this statement.
“The Democrats’ Congress is a failure-pure and simple. They are unable to compromise and have failed on almost every campaign promise from 2006. I voted Democrats into Congress in 2006, I will not make that mistake again.”
Are you aware the Republicans stopped most major bills in the senate with their BS Filibuster mentality this session. it was a do nothing Senate why??? the republicans stopped anything of value. Total obstructionism. The Republicans have become the filibuster everything Minority.
134 more than double the number of any other.
from the Atlantic.com:
A roll call of the bills subject to conservative filibuster shows a vision for a different America. Conservatives filibustered bills to end the occupation of Iraq, reduce subsidies for oil companies, and allow residents of the District of Columbia to vote. Conservatives used the filibuster to kill legislation that would increase renewable sources for electricity and that would allow soldiers in Iraq rest time equal to their deployments.
Will the republicans retake congress?? NOT a chance
– OMG, seriously? That’s your defense of congress? They offer batshit crazy bills that would never have seen the light of day at any other time and the Republicans shoot them down,,, why?,,, because they are so batshit crazy that the Dems can’t get even one Republican *NOR* every democrat to support them,,, and you blame the Republicans??
Astounding, simply astounding.
Bill C…
apparently you righties think allowing our soldiers more rest between Iraq deployments a batshit crazy bill…. are renewable resources.. a batshit crazy bill?? its seems your new hero McCain wants renewable resource bills.. or at least now he says so… although he has never voted for them..
yep Republicans.. they are simply astounding. Full of batshit is what they are..
Sky,
Have you read the US Constitution lately?
Have you ever?
Can you show me in there who has the authority and responsibility for the military?
Can you show me in there who the responsibilities of Commander In Chief of the military falls to?
Hint….it’s not Congress.
Any bill that Congress tries to create which would hamstring the CIC is a bad bill and should rightly be considered unconstitutional, regardless of the political parties involved.
RAP – The truth hurts, don’t it. Democrats don’t do anything besides complain and point the finger. They have no leadership skills whatsoever. Example: Obama (no experience).
The Webb Amendment failed because it eventually became clear that the Democrats were still playing politics with the war and the lives of our troops and the Iraqis. They wanted to throw a monkey wrench into troop deployment to guarantee failure of the surge.
_________________________________________________________________________
Secretary Robert Gates
Secretary of Defense
September 14, 2007
The complexity of managing the flow of units, individuals and capabilities to two active combat theaters is enormous and does not lend itself to simplistic, or to simple, legislative prescriptions…The cumulative effect of these kinds of things, we think, would, frankly, increase the risk to our men and women in uniform over there.
*
Fred Kagan
The American Enterprise Institute
September 14, 2007
The amendment as offered earlier this summer (when it garnered 56 votes in the Senate) would present a nightmare in execution…This amendment would insert a rigid inflexibility into the military planning process…If the commander of American forces in Iraq or Afghanistan concluded that some event were likely to require the deployment of additional forces to his theater, even for a brief time, this amendment would severely constrain the pool of units and personnel that could be sent…If American commanders are constrained to have only those “units and members” of the services in theater who have spent the requisite time at home, then a time will almost certainly come when they do not have the forces they need to accomplish their missions…
*
General Peter Pace
Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
September 14, 2007
[I]t’s just not simple math. So when people start picking at pieces of the process, it impacts parts of the process that you really don’t even see until you try to react to that and make it work.
*
Senator John McCain
Republican Senator from Arizona
September 15, 2007
Where in the Constitution of the United States does it say that the Congress decides how long people will spend on tours of duty and how long they will spend back in the United States? It’s blatantly unconstitutional…Is this all about helping the men and women in the military having a lighter burden, or is this another way of achieving a goal that they can’t get, a straight up or down vote on withdrawal?
*
James Carafano
The Heritage Foundation
September 16, 2007
The goal of this legislation is to limit the options available to (Secretary Gates), thereby tying Pentagon planners’ hands and forcing a de facto drawdown of U.S. force levels in Iraq. This legislation would undermine how America fights wars…Congress’s mandating deployment schedules would put U.S. forces and Americans at risk unnecessarily. Mandating deployment schedules would limit the Commander in Chief’s flexibility during war and would be the first step toward cutting and running in Iraq.
A McCain/Palin landslide where the Dems lose ground (esp any of the far left Dems) might be a best outcome
I don’t know how you can say that when the dems threaten impeachment all the time. If they have a veto proof congress then they will impeach McCain and Palin and put Nancy in as president. They have shown their childishness for the last two years with their endless investigations trying to find something anything to hang on the Bush administrations. What makes you think they will change?
And I’ll tell you this when the republicans took all those earmarks they were still not as corrupt as the dems. Facts have proven otherwise even with the MSN covering for them it has come out.
And the republicans did not spend all their time trying to investigate the dems. We need to put the adults back in Washington and tell the children (dems) to go home. I wish we could get term limits for all of them. No one needs to be in Washington for more than 8 or 12 years.
I really with we cold throw them all out and start all over with people that actually work for regular people, not the special interests on both sides.
But if we have anything, it would be better to have the Republicans in power, at least they try and do the best with the children on the Left side of the aisle. If we learned anything in the past 2 years, it is the Dems are just a bunch of whiney children that can not stick to promises they put forth in the campaign and will do anything to go after Republicans, facts or no facts. Integrity be damned.
Even weak Republicans will be better than the children that are runnning CONgress right now.
BarbaraS: if the Dems lose ground they will not have a veto proof congress. They need 66 in the senate for that.
I agree with term limits. We should have 3 maybe 4 terms for congress. Then you are done.
On second thought…what am I saying? The states should get to determine term limits!
The dems are awful, but the Repubs need a reformation.