I don’t see Israel or the US going after them. I do, however, see their own citizens taking their government down (with external aid). The Iranian economy is in the toilet, and Ahmadinejad’s popularity is swirling the edges of the toilet bowl for public opinion. France backed out of oil development there in the past day or two… the 3rd oil investor to do so.

The missile launches, IMHO, are primarily to jack up oil prices to rise to protect their oil revenue, which is declining. Especially since the add’l oil investment/drilling has backed off.

But frankly, I just don’t see the world leaping willy-nilly into conflict with Iran. What they could do to the cargo traffic alone, starting from the Persian Gulf, could set the world into an economic tail spin. But I do see finding ways to have it fall from within. The times and citizenry – quite western in the youth, who are rapidly the majority – are ripe for internal change.

Just another perspective…. but only time will tell what actually transpires, eh?

The Straits are only 21 miles, but shipping lanes only 2 miles. It doesn’t take a lot to close 2 miles of shipping lane. A few burning tankers would provide all the cover needed. It’s hardly an “open water” scenario.

But back to the TIME.

Think about the events involved in military (including asymetric) action, and the political reaction as well as military (including asymetric) reaction.

Takes hours for Israeli Air Force to get to Iran, and start dropping bombs. That’s a long time to go undetected in a very tightly watched region.

Once the attack is detected or announced by bombing, how long before politicians get the word and react, and how long before military reactions take place? How long before terrorists are sent to war? Once a military reaction starts, given the way the Gulf is packed with ships, the region is packed w US bases, and the short range….man, as soon as the first bomb hits, it could be minutes before 1000 ballistic missiles start launching at Israel (even w conventional 1ton warheads…that’s a lotta LOTTA damage). It could be minutes before US ships get attacked, and subsequently seconds before US ships start sinking Iranian ships etc. It’s like a shootout in a phone booth. Meanwhile, on the other side of the globe, McCain and Obama staff get the word via supporters/channels and their spin doctors have to decide immediately what to say, what to support, what to oppose, if to oppose, if to support, etc.

No bs, if an Israeli strike happens before the election in Nov, and they actually make it to their targets, the biggest, most shaping events of the war could take place between commercial breaks (7-10 minutes).

TIME is what concerns me. There’s not a lot of decision making time-military or political.