In a ominous sign of things to come for Obama it appears that many people are still, weeks after her concession, identifying themselves as Hillary supporters and the number who have said they will not vote for the leader of Hypenated-Americanism have gone down also:
According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Friday, the number of Clinton supporters who plan to defect to Republican Sen. John McCain’s camp is down from one month ago, but — in what could be an ominous sign for Obama as he seeks to unify the party — the number of them who say they plan to vote for Obama is also down, and a growing number say they may not vote at all.
In a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey completed in early June before the New York senator ended her White House bid, 60 percent of Clinton backers polled said they planned on voting for Obama. In the latest poll, that number has dropped to 54 percent. In early June, 22 percent of Clinton supporters polled said they would not vote at all if Obama were the party’s nominee, now close to a third say they will stay home.
In another sign the wounds of the heated primary race have yet to heal, 43 percent of registered Democrats polled still say they would prefer Clinton to be the party’s presidential nominee.
These numbers should have gone up by now, you would think. But it appears that Hillary backers are now even more resigned to defecting or staying home. The important number here is the number of McCain Democrats. If he only gets 5-10% of them Obama will lose in a landslide. Granted, we are still months away from November but this just can’t be good for Obama.
In other Obama related news a reader at Atlas Shrugs did some counting while reading a book of Obama’s that should may come back to haunt him:
Obama probably did not think about the presidential office possibility when he wrote the book “Dreams From My Father” as it is laden with racist categorizations. Obama catagorizes people according to skin tone, as some are olive, pale, walnut, etc. Almost to the point of being laughable, if it was not so pathetic and scary. The last person to be that race obsessed in power started freakin’ WWII and murdered millions of innocent people.
My husband and I sat down one night and began counting how many times Obama used racial catagorization or referred to race in his book Dreams From My Father. There are racial references made 179 times in the first 110 pages.
We got sick of counting at page 110 and sick of reading Obama’s racial trashing.
Black=70
White=52
Africa=5
African=3
African American=5
Race=10
Bitch=1
N**ger=13
“Fucking Eskimo”=1
Japanese=1
Asian=2
racism=3
racist=3
colored=1
green-eyed, honey skin, pouty Lips=1
Dark and straight-backed=1
Ugly Americans=1
Native American=1
French=1
Italian=1
Black Bondage=1
Black Power=1
White referenced as Devil=1
Blue-eyed Devils=1
Dark unblemished skin=1
Black Power=1
Racial Stock=1
Brown and handsome=1
Dark=1
Milato=1
Albino=1So what’s up with the Eskimo Hating? Who knows. Obama is obsessed with skin color. As I said before I feel compelled to study this because my son has blue eyes. ‘Nuff said.
My point being is: I really do not think BO had his sights on the presidency when he wrote this book, as The Audacity of Hope is toned down from Dreams From My Father. Obama does include in Audacity that the Constitution could use a little improving.
My point is further made by the fact that the Obama for President Website censored the guy that posted direct quotes from Obama’s books within 36 hours.
Obama’s minions are banking on the fact that the bulk of the American public will rely on CNN for their information. That and most people are to stupid or busy to pick up Obama’s book, as the liberals will just buy it so it’s on their bookshelf and they can say they read it.
The truth is the truth and the words that the guy posted were written by Obama.
Obama has several “composite” figures in his book. The black nationalist “Rafiq” comes to mind. But in reading Obama’s book, I get the sense that it is almost a conversation with himself. Obama is too fluent in the case of Black Nationalism for my comfort.
It would seem to me that Obama would never had made it to Illinois State Senate without the ultimate blessing of Louis Farrakhan. Obama threw the incumbent civil rights lady under the bus and bulldozed his way into her State senate seat. Obama hired lawyers and got the candidate’s petition signatures thrown out and disqualified. Obama did this with not just one but all the democratic candidates (no Republicans run in South Chicago). So once the other candidates were disqualified Obama had the seat with NO votes. Sounds Mugabe to me.
Actually, without reading the book you can get a real sense of who Obama is just by the fact that he stayed in those pews at Trinity Church for 20 years. Obama befriended Wright from the beginning and let him into his life because of his sermons, not in spite of them. Obama says he doesn’t agree with the solutions offered by Wright but its obvious there was something about that black anger that attracted him otherwise he would have left that church long ago.
In the end Obama is the perfect example of a elite academic radical.
See author page
I think this by Gateway Pundit compliments your post, Curt.
I’m a little surprised that the Hillary camp hasn’t moved to seek more power through a concerted effort to place McCain in the WH. Right now, Hilllary’s power is very weak. The only way to regain power is to either fully support Obama in exchange for Congressional power/favors, or take a more Gordon Gecko approach by cutting Obama off at his knees and having her supporters vote for McCain. The second would be preferable for Hill because it weakens Obama, strengthens her position in Congress in the interim, and gives her a chance to run again in 2012, thus crushing everyone that opposed her in 2008.
She or her supporters have nothing to gain by supporting Obama, but they also have nothing to gain by sitting the election out. Inaction, in this election, by her supporters will not be a strong statement of Hillary’s power. They would have to act with decisiveness and have McCain win by a large margin. If they don’t, then Hillary will be irreversibly weakened, and I wouldn’t doubt that she would be vulnerable to losing her Congressional seat.
If her supporter fall behind Obama, then Hillary may have her debts paid, but she gains nothing. Obama and the Kennedy faction will control the Congress. Hillary will have to follow the orders of those who opposed her in Congress. Finally, she is weakened politically and financially. I think either Hillary will be done in politics or she pulls off a feat of hard ball politics. I don’t know if she’s that smart to do the latter.
In the same CNN survey we also find:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/07/04/polls-white-house-race-remains-tight/
This is sadly true as demonstrated by Obama minion Doug above.
They simply do NOT care if Obama has a race problem and most of the American people will never find out about it.
Hillary did her best to shine a light on the issue and it didn’t help. McCain won’t touch the issue with a ten foot pole.
Will GOP oriented 527’s be able to make some headway with these obvious Obama character defects when Hillary and others could not?
P.S. Doug: Obama had hoped for a 10 point bounce OVER his lead of McCain after Hillary left the race. Doesn’t seem to me that he got it in most polls. You can pick all the cherries you want, but it would seem they are too sour even for one of your usual pies.
Mike, it would seem that “cherrypicking” has become a favorite euphemism on this site for, “Oh, no! You found facts that I don’t like!” In particular, your overuse of the term suggests that you don’t actually know what it means. In order to escape the accusation of cherrypicking, must one post the entire text of any article cited?
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gJyH1GO3NGTeG0KIQjK8-P98ktwg
This is a reversal of 56% of the Latino vote Bush received over Kerry in 2004. But all this gets even more interesting with this Rasmussen poll that:
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/07/04/obama-predicts-political-realignment-tries-to-put-montana-in-play/
McCain needs this these Latino battleground states if he wants to win the election, as he certainly will NOT get the evangelical bloc numbers Bush did, and furthermore, Obama is even working hard to pry evangelicals his way:
http://www.christianpost.com/article/20080702/obama-prying-loose-evangelicals-from-republicans.htm
Indeed.
More impressive work from the brainiacs at ‘Atlas Shrugged’. Wonder if this whizbang counted the swear words in ‘Tropic Of Cancer’?
Oh well.
And ‘what is up with all that *Black Anger*?
After all we’ve done for those people…
OOps, looks like Obama’s unification skills are a little lacking. The PUMA’s are growing stronger, expecially on Facebook
obama is socially and racially retarded. when will people open up their eyes and see, i mean really see what he is about. so freakin hateful and showy.
I see the Cherry pickers are STILL at it!
They are so delusional.
You’d think after voting for Democrats in 2006 to end the war (and didn’t) they would have figured it out.
Mike you have to remember the type of person you’re dealing with,,,
they really are delusional… moonbats led around by the nose by the DNC or Soros etc…
I don’t like McCain,,, but I despise the leftist/racist/marxist BO….
I’ve never stamped one party on any ballot..
So I don’t think the majority will ever understand what they’ve become they are too consumed with hate for anything GOP..
If the GOP could deliver each of them their utopian life they would still turn it down because of the source..
NOBAMA 08
Someone may want to remind Arthurstone that slavery was abolished in the US in 1860s, and that the 1950-60s brought around long overdue changes for racial inequity.
With BHO’s young fan base, and the fact it’s now 2008, I can safely say no BHO supporter was ever a slave in America. Nor are most old enough to ever have been required to take a seat at the back of the bus, enter thru the back door, or drink from a different water fountain.
Cries of “foul” for inequity never endured, and hate for Americans today based on what past Americans did in a different – and embarrassing – cultural era reflects how our public education has been successful in indoctrinating a nation of “victims”… all without the victimization.
I have yet to hear this same disgruntled group of hypenated-Americans (when most probably never saw Africa but on a movie or TV screen) raise outrage over the Islamic jihad movement and their barbaric human rights.
Mata Harley typed:
Cries of “foul” for inequity never endured, and hate for Americans today based on what past Americans did in a different – and embarrassing – cultural era reflects how our public education has been successful in indoctrinating a nation of “victims”… all without the victimization.
How *past* was one of the great stalwarts of the GOP Jess Helms?
But your point is well taken Mata. Middle class white people have decided racism no longer exists so by golly it’s over.
That about right?
One other thing. Interesting how ‘anger’ morphed to ‘hate’ in your little aside.
Well done.
Not leaving well enough alone she added:
With BHO’s young fan base, and the fact it’s now 2008, I can safely say no BHO supporter was ever a slave in America. Nor are most old enough to ever have been required to take a seat at the back of the bus, enter thru the back door, or drink from a different water fountain.
But a great many have experienced red-lining, the inequity of our criminal justice system, inequality in employment, education and a myriad of activites in this nation. Of course those of us born white who support Obama have never once had to deal with such issues in this country.
And you know that. Deny as you may.
Bigpapa: I know they are delusional. I’ve been treated to “Arthur’s” comments for years. And just like in the above, all he does is play his sorry little word games then gets in a pout when his error is pointed out and goes home.
Hey Art…. I’m still waiting for your prediction that we would be out of Iraq by now (2007) to come true!
How does that feel to be so lied and misled to by the very people you thought you could trust?
And what does it say about your misplaced faith in your new cult leader?
You do have a penchant for “left field”, Arthur.
You can not legislate or mandate racism out of existence, nor out of the human heart, Arthur. In that sense, racism will be eliminated about the same time mankind is wiped off the planet.
What you can do is give recourse to those that experience racism or discrimination. And now that era of inequity is indeed over. Blacks hold no monopoly on unfair treatment, or being the receivers of despicable behaviour by other humans. Discrimination is not only racial in foundation.
And before you start tripping over your tongue on GOP’s Helms, you may want revisit your great DNC KKK grand poooobah, Robert Byrd. Party does not define the heart. Both harbor old school bias. I never said I was a Helms supporter. But then, never occurs to you that most of us aren’t those that blindly toe party lines.
But of course… how silly of me. Black theology and nationalism is just chock full of “love your fellow man” stuff. And those protestors foaming at the mouth with spittal and “anger” at Bush don’t “hate” either. It was no large leap to go from “anger” to “hate” by those discussed in this thread. You *do* remember what the thread is about, right?
You speak only for yourself for “never having to deal with such issues”. There has been great criminal injustice for MANY in this nation. Not just black. Again, you speak as if they hold a monopoly on this. What BS…
If they suffered from discrimination in employment, housing etal, they needed only to take it to court … the same way all of us must do when we are wronged.
Your problem is two fold… you think you can legislate the human heart, and you grant a pass to those who prefer to whine instead of fight when wronged.
You know what Aurthurstone,,,
you can kiss my lily white ass,,,
I’ve never owned slaves… my family in the past never owned slaves…
I’ve never denied anyone anything based on their race or sex…
So I am not guilty and owe no one anything due to their race or sex….
Answer me one question if you dare…
If one of your grandparents or even parents killed someone… should you also be punished????
I mean you are the same race and related to them..
So why should I as a white male be automatically assumed to be guilty of racism or sexism…
I shouldn’t,,, but however by you automatically assuming I am … YOU ARE A RACIST…
In my life I’ve seen so much affermative action BS it makes me want to puke…
No blackman or any woman under the age of 45 can claim they weren’t given a chance…
They have had hundreds of affermative action programs to choose from…
Any that didn’t were either dumb or lazy…
I’ve been discriminated against more than any “minority” or woman I know…
MataH: “Arthur” lives in the world of Utopian socialism otherwise known as Seattle Washington. And he’s not just ANY commoner in that realm, he’s an ART DEALER. Someone who peddles imaginary visual renderings to help tourists and gullible rich libs part with their cash.
From his perch on Pioneer Square he can soak in the atmosphere of liberal lunacy on a daily basis.
He also suffers from the same vein of anger that propels so many of his ilk to violate their professed beliefs in “peace,” love and harmony and spew nonstop hate at the those of us who are too grounded in reality to join them in their fools errand of world socialism.
Doug, you may (or not) remember I have a particular disdain for polls. My thought is, ask 1000 uninformed Americans leading questions, and you’ll get 1000 uninformed answers, led right down the path the pollsters wanted. Now that I made that disclosure….
Mike’sA’s post was about warning signs for Obama… that the party unity ain’t all it’s cracked up to be. You responded with poll comments of McCain trailing Obama. Huh? Rather off topic, and if it’s supposed to mean anything than pollsters stayed gainfully employed for yet another week, I’ll be darned as to what it is.
While McCain is no Reagan, it might be noted that Reagan was consistently trailing in polls by double digit before his 44 state sweep/win. But while JSM isn’t Reagan, the DNC has a Carter-esque candidate who’s managed to raise as much strong opposition as he has support. There are few that are neutral about BHO. So I suggest you don’t celebrate prematurely, based on polls.
To go back to Mike’s point about BHO’s progress in DNC unity… another CNN poll released yesterday confirms what Mike was saying…. BHO’s support appears to be eroding in his own party.
If you believe in polls, of course. You quote them often, so I’ll suspect you do.
I”ve linked directly to the poll results, since I prefer that original source material. If you prefer the media spin, here’s the corresponding CNN article, Clinton Supporters still not embracing Obama.
There was a total of 1062 responders, 431 registered Dems (starting on pg 6) is what they based the BHO v HRC results upon.
June 4-5 had BHO as the preferred nominee over Clinton 59 to 35%.
By June 26-29, BHO was still the preferred, by only by 54%. He lost 5 points.
At the same time, those that preferred HRC went up from 35 to 43%.. a gain of 8 points to BHO’s 5% loss. Statistically, I give this one to Hillary.
HRC’s always had a more loyal base. 43% were always supporters, compared to BHO’s 39%. 15% said they did a switch from HRC to BHO. Likely because she suspended her campaign and BHO prematurely claimed victory, before the Supers’ votes in August. Technically, he still doesn’t have enuf votes to claim the nomination without them, and that 15% aren’t die hard loyalists. Those chickens haven’t hatched yet.
Asked about voting in the Nov election, but not for whom, 90% are very and somewhat likely to participate… down 2% from just weeks before. How many of those HRC supporters will not be voting for BHO, yet still participating? This is still the unknown.
The accompanying article puts it this way:
If BHO can’t capture but near half of HRC’s base, he most certainly could find himself in a pickle come Nov…. which is, again, Mike’s point.
Mike’sA, shame on you… where’s your compassion for one who is obviously a victim of his environment??? LOL
About the polls:
At this point in 2000 and 2004, the polls had Gore and Kerry in front of Bush, ranging from 3-5 points. Not an insurmountable lead, but solid and steady. Poll after poll from late winter into late summer, Bush consistently trailing. But, of course, we know the outcome of those two elections.
Colorado, the state I know the best since I live here. Though polls say “Coloradans have a high regard for Obama,” he has unable to translate this into an early, solid lead over McCain. Indeed Obama scored decisively over Hillary in the February caucuses and McCain lost to Romney by a 3-1 margin. Intuitively, Obama should have a solid lead. He doesn’t. It’s in the toss-up category, with a slight lead (within the margin of error) to McCain (+1).
For those that haven’t caught on yet, Colorado has reliably voted Republican since 1964 despite having Democratic governors for 20 years (Lamm and Romer). Also, legislature control is not a factor. The 1992 election was an aberration in which Perot siphoned off enough Republican/independent votes to allow Clinton to carry the state (Clinton – 40%, Bush 41 – 37%, Perot – 13%). Because of the ’92 result, the media and polling units have portrayed Colorado as a swing state without looking at voting patterns.
So, how does all of this figure into this election cycle. Very little. In 2004, Kerry was running nearly even with Bush at this time. The State Legislature was split, Democrats in the majority in the Senate, Republicans in the House. Speculation was Kerry could flip Colorado.
Side note: On Jul 2, Obama came to predominantly Republican Colorado Springs. The theme of his daylong appearance was “National Service,” recycling an old Gary Hart theme from 1984. In the two appearances he made, both were by invitation only. (The second appearance was a private fundraiser.) In his first appearance, he said the 4th of July is more than fireworks. This particular quote was also slight backhanded slapped at Army personnel at Ft Carson where efforts to celebrate the holiday was in full swing. Definitely not a way to win votes in a strong military community. While Obama visited the Cheyenne Mountain complex, USAFA, and Peterson AFB in his capacity as US Senator, he deliberately stayed away from Ft Carson. Anyway, Ft Carson is in the midst of readying a brigade combat team for deployment to Iraq in September.
Arthur Stone exhaled:
Speaking of Helms…, I thought this was an interesting post.
MH said:
“Doug, you may (or not) remember I have a particular disdain for polls. My thought is, ask 1000 uninformed Americans leading questions, and you’ll get 1000 uninformed answers, led right down the path the pollsters wanted. Now that I made that disclosure….”
Polls out right now simply give a ‘pulse’ on where the nation is leaning, that’s about it … it’s merely an academic spat outside of that.
However, ignoring them puts a candidate in peril. Therefore, they are a necessity in politics. Personally, I don’t have much faith in them –when they are close– until after the conventions; then they are an essential “food” group.
Therefore, your disdain for polls would be unwise if you kept it after the conventions.
MH said:
“To go back to Mike’s point about BHO’s progress in DNC unity… another CNN poll released yesterday confirms what Mike was saying…. BHO’s support appears to be eroding in his own party.”
His support does appear to be down a bit among Hillary supporters. Mike’s post makes a good point here. This poll may explain why Obama has yet to establish more than a 5%-6% lead over McCain.
But then Mike wanders out on limb:
“These numbers should have gone up by now, you would think. But it appears that Hillary backers are now even more resigned to defecting or staying home. The important number here is the number of McCain Democrats. If he only gets 5-10% of them Obama will lose in a landslide. Granted, we are still months away from November but this just can’t be good for Obama.”
There simply are too many variables to make that statement I highlighted; it needs to be flushed out and given breath to make it live, yet Mike won’t look at McCain’s downsides, just Obama’s.
There are a lot of “important numbers” for McCain, too: McCain evangelicals, McCain Hispanics, McCain fiscal conservatives, McCain donor groups. We don’t have recent tracking poll numbers here yet, but they will come in the fall; as they do, then we’ll see if that is an “important number” contrasted with other numbers.
Now granted Mike does state we’re “still months away”. But let’s be honest here, the political concrete simply doesn’t take meaningful form until after the conventions; before then, if we are going to talk about “important numbers”, why won’t FA discuss _all_ the important numbers” –instead of only obama’s missing Hillary supporters.
Are not the evangelical voters, that put Bush in the white house, “important numbers”; are not the Hispanics, that helped put Bush in the WH, “important numbers”; and how about ‘new’ “important numbers” like Ron Paul and Bob Barr or Republican fiscal conservatives, are they not “important numbers” for McCain???
Therefore, don’t snipe at us about a present sore Obama has with Hillary supporters, how it could doom us all by losing in a potential “landslide”, when all the “important numbers” aren’t even in the calculus– the argument is less than honest.
PS– I enjoy our chats ; )
I’m sure that the Democrats will have a huge bounce in the polls after the convention in Denver. The freaks of “Recreate 68” will engage in violence with the police and probably burn down half the city. It will be 68 all over again….the Democrats fielding the most leftist candidate since George McGovern, losing in a landslide! The usually reliable blue collar union vote will not be there for Obama. Those bitter gun toting, bible clutching rednecks have long memories!
A Seattle art dealer? What Spiro Agnew accurately referred to as effete intellectual snobs! You are so far removed from the reality of daily living in America that you can barely see the planet.
I have some professional experience with polls. They are a useful instrument. We used to average them by hand in the White House Political Office and draw electoral maps, again by hand (this was 20 years ago and computers couldn’t do it quite yet) for a weekly analysis.
But that was more for show than anything else. The really useful polling information comes from a candidates private polling, which is done on a daily basis to give some overall sense of the up and downs reflecting current events and campaign tactics.
At this stage, all this poll watching of media polls doesn’t mean a heck of a lot except to create some type of baseline for further analysis later.
Still, I have always wondered whether the former Hillary voters who won’t vote for Obama will be outnumbered by the GOP voters who can’t stand McCain?
P.S. I enjoy my chats with MataH too !
JacK V: Spiro Agnew would also have correctly described “Arthur” (that’s not his real name) as a “nattering nabob of negativity.”
Mike,
I am not fond of McCain. However, those GOP voters who don’t like him have two alternatives. They can sit the election out and hand the country to Obama, Pelosi and Reid. Or they can hold their noses and vote for McCain.
My money is on the second alternative.
JackV: I’m not a McCain fan either. On behalf of what McCain called “my blogging friends” I personally questioned him at length about some of his stands that gave conservatives like me nightmares.
As we saw in 2006 there were quite a few conservatives (or at least they claimed to be and I’m all that sure they were) who said they were disgusted with the GOP and that we needed to be taught a lesson. So, they didn’t vote.
Do you think THEY LEARNED their lesson or will they repeat that mistake again?
I don’t know.
We only have two choices and not voting is not a third choice, it is a default vote for Obama.
Oh my word… #24 and #22… You guys agreed on something! The value of polls, and chatting with me… :0)
Well, I like chatting with you guys too.
Dunno how I’ll be much more of a poll fan after the convention, Doug. My impression of polls is that they are the tail wagging the dog, ya know. If people didn’t believe something before they read a poll result, they are likely to trend that way. Also, most polls are nothing more than a regurgitation that the past week or two of MSM headlines. I guess I fail to see how that will change post conventions.
But hey… you two like ’em. I think I’ll bask in the moment of political harmony and convergence here….
“Warning signs for” McCain…
http://www.the-peoples-forum.com/cgi-bin/readart.cgi?ArtNum=2101
Like I said above, “important numbers” aren’t just for Obama.
And this tells me what at 4 months before the election? McGovern was ahead of Reagan at this time also. And we know what happened there don’t we. Polls are meaningless except on election day.
Did they put Nader in this poll? He will take more away from Obama probably than Barr will with the conservatives.
I am hopeful that the conservaitves will not do the same thing they did in 2006 and have all 3 branches of the government under the control of the Socialists inthe Democrat Party
I will never understand the people of the USA. The only people that can see what’s going on are the first generation born Americans , Because they’re parents came from Europe where they lived under communism, and not so bad socialism they know what this Obama is all about. Go ahead vote for him in 4 years time or less you’ll be kicking yourself. When you work your head off and it’s taken away from you to give to the lazy slobs that. refuse to work.Haven’t you had enough of welfare where the ones that have a dozen babies get everything for free and they sit on their fat asses getting fatter and drive expensive cars, while you drive a car that’s spits and sputters. Yet they take your money to support these people, these people are living better than you. Wait till Obama gets in then cry and wish you never voted for him.
As the daughter of 1st generation born Americans, all I can say to you, Helen, is AMEN! I’m with you, girl!! And you put it beautifully. A delight to see you here.