I know that must annoy the hell out of you but so be it. Cling to whatever shards of doom and gloom you subsitute for hope but it doesn’t alter reality.

That’s a standard hold-fast-to-the-task in Iraq argument I’ve glossed over many times—despite the Iraqi citizens polling data (pages 49 onward) tucked away at the end: despite the data indicating the country is politically divided; despite the country being divided on security perceptions; despite 70-80% opposing our presence in their country. Despite the fact that Iraqi’s by 3-1 are blaming Americans for the violence over Iranians (p.53). Therefore, I believe this public polling data be accented over the political ‘progress’ data.

I’ve parsed these polls with many of you before, so there’s no need for me to do it again. However, I’ll state this fact, much of the report is meaningless without the final voices of the people of Iraqi. All the statistical pandering is irrelevant in comparison to what the public thinks. To think otherwise now that we are in a 6 year conflict only inflames public anger and promotes the perception that we not interested in what a vast majority of Iraqi’s think.

Those last few pages of polling data probably explain why Sistani may be back in the game and opposing our presence now.

But he’s not in Iraq. He’s been hiding in Iran for years.

I see Doug is up to his old bag of tricks again. I’d almost feel sorry for him to defend such a miserable position as wanting to believe his country has failed at something so monumental just so he can feel superior.

By every measure that President Bush has laid out, the conditions for VICTORY are at hand. Iraq is governing itself, defending itself and has become an ally in the war on terror.

And, they are pumping more oil now than ever before.

All Doug and friends are left with is spinning and hoping for disaster.

Read it and weep Doug:

http://www.brookings.edu/saban/~/media/Files/Centers/Saban/Iraq%20Index/index.pdf

…
All the usual caveats apply here. The purpose of the fatwas is murky, the leakers may have axes to grind we don’t know about, and it’s a good idea not to overreact to daily news from Iraq.

That said, this ranks fairly high on the worry meter. As badly as the U.S. occupation of Iraq has gone, it would have gone way, way worse if Sistani hadn’t cooperated with us. And for the most part he has, mostly by tolerating our presence and refusing to countenance the kind of active resistance favored by Mutqda al-Sadr. But these recent fatwas might be a sign that this is changing. Eric Martin:

Sistani is moving in this direction, at least partially, because of public sentiment and Sadr’s ability to capitalize on his anti-American stance. Opposing the American presence is popular. That’s not going to change any time soon.

But why now? There has to be some reason not just for the fatwas themselves, but for leaking their existence to the press at this moment in time. Maybe Sistani was feeling the heat from Sadr. Maybe after five years of waiting for us to draw down, his patience has finally run out. Or maybe it was just a shot across the bow, a way of telling us that a long-term American presence is not in the cards.

There’s no way to know for sure based on this single report. Still, it’s probably not too much to say that if Sistani turns openly against us, our continued presence in Iraq will truly become impossible. He may have decided that if we’re not going to set a timetable ourselves for leaving, he’s going to set one for us. Stay tuned.

…Or maybe he didn’t like the 2013 date that McCain set for victory. Or maybe he didn’t like US forces taking sides on political conflicts (Basra and Sadr City).

While the reasons for his change of mind remain unclear, one thing is clear; if this report (”leaks”) is true, and if Sistani is leaning away from our occupation, then he has reached his limit …and even if he doesn’t openly call for violence against American forces, he’s already given a green light for it.

Finally, if both al-Sistani and al-Sadr call for jihad at the same time, the Iraq occupation is over.

Second, Gen. P. said it was too early to predict how many soldiers will be redeployed and when exactly that would happen.

Third, keep in mind that Gen. P. stated that if conditions allowed it, he will be able to recommend troop withdrawals in the fall:

“”I will be able to make a recommendation for further reduction at that time,” — meaning he will make a decision in the fall.

Further, thought many of you might be interested in this:

Iraq’s most influential Shiite cleric has been quietly issuing religious edicts declaring that armed resistance against U.S.-led foreign troops is permissible — a potentially significant shift by a key supporter of the Washington-backed government in Baghdad.

The edicts, or fatwas, by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani suggest he seeks to sharpen his long-held opposition to American troops and counter the populist appeal of his main rivals, firebrand Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army militia.
…
A longtime official at al-Sistani’s office in Najaf would not deny or confirm the edicts issued in private, but hinted that a publicized call for jihad may come later.
…

It’s things like this that make troop deductions so conditional, and success so tenuous.

So, in essence, Iraq’s political and military dynamics have now radically changed; the same day that Gen. P. painted a bit of optimistic color into the public tableau Sistani has taken a spray can and written black graffiti all over his rhetoric.

The jihadis themselves say we’re winning…

http://furtheradventuresofindigored.blogspot.com/2008/05/jihadist-study-proves-their-defeat.html

a government propagandist

I wonder, does ABC News fits within this category?

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=4909213&page=1

How about the BBC?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7411334.stm

Surely this fellow from Australia fits in there somewhere.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23743270-7583,00.html

And this writer in Baghdad?

http://www.metimes.com/Security/2008/05/21/new_iraqi_cabinet_taking_shape/9553/

***

Yes, TB, the reality on the ground in Iraq surrounds you like quicksand.

The more you deny and struggle the deeper down you will sink.