Israel says Iran will be in a position to begin enriching uranium on a military scale this year.

According to The Jerusalem Post, the new assessment moves up Israel’s forecasts on Tehran’s nuclear program by almost a full year - from 2009 to the end of 2008. According to the new timeline, Iran could have a nuclear weapon by the middle of next year.

The Post, in an execlusive, quoted a senior Iranian defense official as saying the Islamic Republic was now on track to master the technology needed to enrich uranium within six months.

SO! Who’s gonna stop Iran from developing a nuclear bomb (or as many as 40 a year), and most importantly how does one stop Iran from giving a nuke to one of their state-sponsored terrorists seeking martrdom (They give these terrorists bullets, rifles, bombs, and short range missiles…why not a nuke)?

Will President Obama take office and bomb Iran?
Will the Israelis bomb Iran before the US election and set off a regional war?
Will the US bomb Iran before the US election, and if so…how will President Obama end the regional war?
Will the US bomb Iran after the US election, and if so…how will President Obama deal with the thousands of suicide bombers already signed up to attack the US?
What happens to oil prices if Iran is bombed by anyone?
Is there a peaceful way to stop Iran from killing Americans in Iraq, from fueling the terrorist wars against Israel, and from pursuing nuclear weapons in the next 6-12 months?

And if 8 months into the Obama Administration a nuclear bomb goes off in an American city…who will President Obama hold responsible, what will he do, and will he get the “it happened on his watch” rantings from the left?”
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56 comments so far

doug
 1 

So now we have a new report in the J.Post warning that the deadline for a nuclear bomb has been must be moved and we must stop Iran’s nuclear bomb before Bush leaves the WH — how convenient.

Perhaps this time before pushing for a preemptive strike and provoking additional Mid-East chaos we should prudently evaluate the evidence in a piecemeal and patient fashion with the assistance of those involved within the international community. Iran has not closed negotiations/discussions on the matter; they appear to be willing to discuss options.

Further, as the Administration has continued to charge Iran is supplying and training Iraqi militants we find senior Iraqi officials in the SIIC continue claiming otherwise:

(Economist) Iran’s government has fiercely denied the charges, refusing to take part in the next round of talks with American officials on security in Iraq until American troops stop killing innocent people in Sadr City. This week Haider al-Ameri, a senior figure in the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a key party in the ruling Shia-led alliance, annoyed Mr Maliki by saying there was little evidence of direct Iranian interference.

and…


[LATimes interview with Moshen Hakim:]

LAT: But some officials in the Iraqi government claim that Iran is involved in Iraqi violence.

HAKIM: Firstly, so far there is no official declaration about that from the Iraqi government. Secondly, the many problems between Iran and Iraq and between Iran and U.S. should be settled through consultation and negotiations. Nothing can be solved by openly and publicly accusing each other of interference.

Therefore, moving on Iran may even open up a US confrontation with the SIIC, or at least elements in the SIIC.

May 9th, 2008 at 9:04 am
Curt
 2 

we should prudently evaluate the evidence in a piecemeal and patient fashion with the assistance of those involved within the international community.

Sounds like exactly what we did for 13 years with Saddam.

Worked wonders.

May 9th, 2008 at 9:13 am
doug
 3 

I just suggest bearing this in mind, if you stir the Iranian pot, be thoughtful of the Iraqi step-brothers of Iran. We already have Sadr’s Shia that see us as invaders, occupiers, and ‘foreigner-devils” …there will be a SIIC backlash of unknown degree if US-Israel unilateral action is taken against Iran without full SIIC cooperation. You can read this in their statements.

I’m suggesting getting all Shia and international ducks and in a row before us Western “thugs” engage in another “failed Iraq strategy” (McCain quote).

May 9th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Curt
 4 

I’m looking at Iraq now and there is nothing “failed” about it. It’s been a remarkable success story. The early strategy did fail, as happens often in every war we have engaged in. But Bush adapted and sent in new leaders with new ideas who turned it around. Thats what good leaders do.

May 9th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Scott Malensek
 5 

Willing to discuss? Iran’s been “willing to discuss” for three decades now. It’s a farce. So far, when Israel claims a country has a nuclear weapons program…they’re always right. Even in Saddam’s case post-war finds showed that his nuclear program was preparing to restart, and it had successfully hidden key illegal nuclear program components from UN inspectors.

Iraq in the 80’s, yep, had a program
Iraq in the 90’s, yep, had a successfully hidden program till 95
Iraq in 2003, yep, was preparing to restart it’s program and had done so without getting caught by UN IAEA inspectors (ie the inspectors that claimed they had completed their mission and left long before the invasion)
Libya, yep…had a program
Syria, yep…had a program

When it comes to nuclear weapons + state sponsored terrorist delivery capabilities…you can only wait for someone to be willing to discuss for so long.

I repeat [again] :

Is there a peaceful way to stop Iran from killing Americans in Iraq, from fueling the terrorist wars against Israel, and from pursuing nuclear weapons in the next 6-12 months?

And if 8 months into the Obama Administration a nuclear bomb goes off in an American city…who will President Obama hold responsible, what will he do, and will he get the “it happened on his watch” rantings from the left?”

May 9th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Gregory Dittman
 6 

It would be kind of stupid now for Iran to Israel since they would be late to the party. The big “secret” of Israel, is the Jewish population is not only fairly small, it’s getting smaller at least as a percentage. Iran would end up nuking a bunch of Muslims instead. There are about 5.4 million Jews in Israel. There are slightly over 6 million Jews in the U.S. In the world there are about 13.3 million Jews. Iran’s total population is nearly 66 million. Iran could sit back with its proxy war for a very long time.

Iran would most likely use it’s nuclear weapons as a means to ward off attacks and embargos. In short it’s ment to ward off attacks by the U.S.

May 9th, 2008 at 10:29 am
 7 

Curt your looking at Iraq now and there is nothing “failed” about it?

What Iraq war are you looking at?

Currently Baghdad has a server water shortage.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080508/lf_nm/iraq_water_dc_2

For the past month Baghdad’s Green Zone is being fired on From Sadr City.

Last month we had a 7 month HIGH in American deaths. 50 or more.
Approximately half of those deaths were in Baghdad.

The following is a list of American Lives lost as of 5/7/08

Since the war began.. 4,073
Since Mission Accomplished. 3.934
Since the Election 1/31/05… 2,636

May 9th, 2008 at 10:57 am
doug
 8 

Curt,

The Iraq Study Group forced bush to be a “good” leader”; saying otherwise is historical redaction. Stating simply Bush “adapted and sent in new leaders with new ideas” ignores what goaded him to do more than “adapt”.

I remember clearly seeing him hold the report in his hands like a smelly diaper; I remember seeing him hating the first ISG news conference where he was asked 6 questions (Major Garret’s question really pissed him off).

As the words “grave and deteriorating” echoed throughout the public’s mindset like a poker stoking a fire Bush was forced to look for “New Way Forward”.

The ISG was a mechanism for a change of course: gone was “stay the course”; gone was Bush’s talk of Iraq as a beacon of democracy in the Middle East; and gone was any talk of victory:

“We had to move the national debate from whether to stay the course to how do we start down the path out,” said one of the ISG’s commission members, according to The New York Times.

While Bush didn’t like the ISG (as well as the 06 election), it goaded him to meet with the State Dept and Pentagon to plan a ‘New Way Forward For Iraq.’

May 9th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
yonason
 9 

IRAQ SURRENDER GROUP

“I remember clearly seeing him hold the report in his hands like a smelly diaper” — DOUGY

That is what it ended up being. Even the little good that was in it was purged by the
anti-American anti-Semitic turds who polished it up.
http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2007/01/isg_fix_more_on.html
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2007/01/manipulating_the_isgs_conclusi.html

So, it really is dreck, which is no doubt why doug and Sky#%$@# are so attracted to it.

EVERYTHING THEY KNOW IS WRONG!

May 9th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Curt
 10 

Rofl….I find it curious that you think a President taking suggestions from a “study group” is somehow a bad thing? Wasn’t the critisism of Bush was that he didn’t listen…he just cowboyed up? Typical BDS. He’s damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t.

Listen, this is what good leaders do. They listen to suggestions, criticisms, and accolades and adapt when things don’t work.

Stay the course was not gone, we ARE staying the course. We haven’t cut n’ run as the Democrats wanted, we stayed the course and are winning because of it. Only the naive believe that strategies don’t change in war. There is an opponent we are fighting, an opponent who also changes strategies which we then have to adapt to.

As far as Bush being cool to the ISG…of course. They wanted concessions to Syria, talks with Iran, and getting Israel to give up land….silly ignorant suggestions. Bush said he liked some of the ideas, and disliked others. Hardly surprising with a list of 79 suggestions. He took some of the good and ditched the bad. As a good leader should.

Sky. To have invaded a country, taken a dictator out, propped up a democracy, beat back al-Qaeda and a strong insurgency and have trained a new Iraqi army with a little over 4,000 in US casualties….I would most definitely call that a success. An achievement of a magnitude never seen before.

As far as infrastructure goes there is a new poultry industry beginning, new markets opening up in areas people could barely move around in the past due to violence, a sewage treatment plant being build in Fallujah (an area which never has had one before), new police stations being opened, agriculture expos being put on for farmers, and new bridges being completed.

For anyone to expect that an infrastructure that has been neglected for decades to suddenly and immediately become 100% efficient is foolhardy. It’s a slow process but it most definitely is improving.

Major General Kevin Bergner:

[...]In Al Zatia, Nahrwan, a local Iraqi company, recently finished the construction of two windmills. This is an innovation of a local proprietor to pump water from wells for drinking water and the irrigation of nearby fields. The project now provides water for 150 local families in that community. In Iskandariyah, an area formerly known as the “Triangle of Death”, local citizens are rebuilding fish farms and hatcheries with the help of micro loans. This industry—destroyed by al-Qaeda—is steadily reviving and providing employment for many local residents. East of Salman Pak, other agriculture sectors are also being revitalized. An agriculture exposition sponsored by the Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture showed recent growth in beekeeping and honey production, new techniques in land management, and programs for date palm inoculation. In fact, the Government of Iraq has completed the date palm aerial spraying in Babil Province which comprises about 37% of the crop that’s to be treated this year by aerial spraying. These civilian crop spraying efforts, using civilian pilots and civilian aircraft, are administered by the Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture.

[...]In addition to the operations against these criminal elements and the operations to emplace better security barriers, the Government of Iraq and the Iraqi Army’s 11th Division in coordination with Multi-National Division – Baghdad have established a combined civil military operations center that Dr. Sheikhly referred to in his remarks. And as he mentioned, this combined effort provides a central point for residents…for citizens of Thawra to process claims, request essential services, and apply for aid. It also coordinates reconstruction projects for the district including those described by Dr. Sheikhly. The short-term projects for the next 30 days include street lighting, trash and rubble removal, sewage disposal, distribution of food rations, provision of medical supplies, and the delivery of small generators and reconstruction supplies. All of this is a coalition effort in support of the broader effort that the Government of Iraq has committed to and is undertaking on the local level. Over the next 90 days this combined effort will coordinate longer term projects to refurbish three medical clinics, to revitalize the Jamilah Wholesale Food Market, to issue micro loans to businesses, and to renovate schools. By coordinating these projects, this civil-military operations center—this combined effort by the Government of Iraq and coalition forces—will expedite some $2.5 million worth of aid and reconstruction investments

May 9th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
yonason
 11 

Oh, yes, and the ISG excrement is just one example of how the misfits on the Left have hampered decent government by interfering with it, rather than participating in it. The fools see the Left opposing Bush, and think it is trying to keep him from doing the wrong thing, when most (if not all) of the time they are obstructing positive achievement. Just how much good can one do when he is bogged down with phony accusations and stalling tactics by those who could care less if America succeeded or failed? Idiots, all!

“For anyone to expect that an infrastructure that has been neglected for decades to suddenly and immediately become 100% efficient is foolhardy.” — Curt

Yes, but if we run away and avert our eyes, we can pretend that wasn’t true.

“The Iraqi public services infrastructure was on the verge of collapse after 20 years of neglect, with little to no investment in many key areas.
. . . .
The Iraqi education system indoctrinated a generation of children and did not provide them the skills needed to manage and grow an economy.”

Yep, it is all our fault -NOT!

EVERYTHING THEY KNOW IS WRONG!

May 9th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
yonason
 12 

“For anyone to expect that an infrastructure that has been neglected for decades to suddenly and immediately become 100% efficient is foolhardy.” — Curt

Yes, but if we run away and aver our eyes, we can pretend that wasn’t true.

“The Iraqi public services infrastructure was on the verge of collapse after 20 years of neglect, with little to no investment in many key areas.
. . . .
The Iraqi education system indoctrinated a generation of children and did not provide them the skills needed to manage and grow an economy.”

http://www.state.gov/p/nea/rls/rpt/60857.htm

Yep, it is all our fault -NOT!

EVERYTHING THEY KNOW IS WRONG!

May 9th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
 13 

Doug, Doug… what do we do with you?

So now we have a new report in the J.Post warning that the deadline for a nuclear bomb has been must be moved and we must stop Iran’s nuclear bomb before Bush leaves the WH — how convenient.

The suggestion to bomb Iran prior to Bush’s departure appears no where. Tho Curt did not provide the original JP link, it is easily searchable by pulling up the JP site. I cannot stress enough that reading source material over second hand reports is integral in forming opinions… hopefully prior to burning up the keyboard.

The excerpt INRE US response that is pertinent to your leaps to erroneous conclusion are:

For this reason, Israel is keeping open a quiet dialogue with the US military and intelligence agencies regarding developments in Iran. While Israel does not believe America will put out a new NIE before President George W. Bush leaves office, senior officials said this week that the dialogue has succeeded in convincing some top officials that the previous report was mistaken.

Assessments in the IDF are that while sanctions are important, they alone will not stop Iran from pursuing a nuclear capability. Their effectiveness is also put into doubt in light of the rising oil prices to more than $100 a barrel in comparison to just $25 several years ago.

In the midst of all of this, Bush will arrive here next week. Hopes in the defense establishment are that he will come bearing gifts, including possibly the stealth F-22 Raptor, advanced models of the Joint Direct Attack Munition smart bombs and an announcement that the US is linking Israel to its worldwide radar system that provides early warning of ballistic missile fire.

No one expects the Bush WH to act militarily with an updated NIE report. The two strikes referred to are 1981 in Iraq and last September in Syria. Both were facilities about to become operational. The Israeli’s have superior intelligence. Perhaps because it is easier for their operatives to pass for Middle East denizens than westerners.

Those suggesting Bush would instigate military action on Iran are DNC Congress members (for election purposes and to install an unfounded fear of the GOP) and the press (doing their part to obtain a DNC victory). Yet from the lips of Bush himself, he is and has always, pursued a diplomatic action via int’l community.

Yet… in stark contrast.. the only one who did advocate bombing Iran is Hillary under conditions of an Iranian attack on Israel.

INRE your statement:

The ISG was a mechanism for a change of course: gone was “stay the course”; gone was Bush’s talk of Iraq as a beacon of democracy in the Middle East; and gone was any talk of victory:

You are again the victim of revisionist history. The “stay the course” mantra is deceptive. Our military has always morphed with rules of engagement to adapt for the duration. However the most notable change in “stay the course” was the Surge. A “mechanism for a change of course” which the DNC fought, and still fights, tooth and nail.

Thus all your notions that the dated Iraq Study Group report (which, BTW, suggested an increase in forces by 10,000-20,000 in the “A Military Strategy for Iraq chapter, pg 71) AND perceived pressure by the newly installed DNC majority on the Bush WH, has shit to do with beans on progress made there. Your analysis, based on facts, can be safely tossed into the cyber dumpster.

May 9th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
 14 

Curt:

Doug is absolutely correct!!! We are not staying the course the coursed changed after Bush was forced to make changes. The ISG and 2006 elections forced his hand. Do you really think Rumsfeld could have screwed up the months and years after “Mission Accomplished” any worse. We are not “Staying the course.” If we were Rummy would still be running the damn war.
Rummy knew how to invade the country and take out Saddam’s army. However, he was totally lost and made error after error from that point on.. But your buddy Bush continued to say “STAY THE COURSE”. What an idiot!!!

May 9th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
David
 15 

The Iraq Study Group didn’t force anything.

If you take your time and read the report analytically, these are recommendations: (1) resolve the Israeli-Palestinian impasse, (2) a large drawdown of US forces in Iraq, (3) if a large drawdown cannot be done, let the Sunni-Shia militias resolve the issues and restrict US forces within their bases, (4) any remaining US forces would be authorized to provide logistical support … no force protection, no pursuit of AQI/ACM elements, self-defense ROE would be sharply limited, (5) engage Iran and Syria with regard to Iraqi border security and transit of foreign fighters.

The ISG report was simply, and still is, a recipe for complete disaster. First, the Israeli-Palestinian impasse has nothing to do with the Iraqi campaign. Second, early on, the Bush Administration, did talk with the Syrian government about stemming the flow of foreign fighters. Syria said they would look into it, but felt there was nothing to discuss. Contact with the Iranian government through the Swiss yielded the same “nothing to discuss” sentiment. A precipitious drawdown of US forces in Iraq, even now, would result in a huge free-for-all, bloodletting of genocidial proportions. A re-definition of the mission into a logistical support mission is complete and utter nonsense. Perhaps when security incidents are much fewer.

As to the notion of keeping “Saddam in his box,” it would have led us into a thornier predicament … a Saddam government developing nuclear weapons (openly or covertly, doesn’t matter) and the Iranian government also developing nuclear weapons. Certainly a nightmare scenario. Both hating each other enough to start a full exchange in the region, both agreeing in their desire to “off” Israel. Diplomacy has its limits, and this type of scenario, most likely, cannot be resolved diplomatically.

We disposed of two state sponsors of terrorism. The third and fourth sponsors are worried; the third giving up their nuclear-chemical-biological programs; the fourth having their nuclear program destroyed by the IAF. The fifth is waiting on election results … do they “get” a government that prefers talking and “measured response” or a government that keeps all of its weapons and options on the table. Which one do you want?

May 9th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
 16 

Read the last part of my post above, Flyboy Skye. You and Doug could not be more incorrect. The change in course is the Surge. A change fought to the death, unsuccessfully, by your beloved DNC held Congress of cowards.

May 9th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
yonason
 17 

“Bush was forced to make changes” — sky@#%!&

Only a concrete thinker would believe that “stay the course” meant to keep repeating the same mistakes, rather than pursue the same final desirable objective, changing tactics/strategy as needed. It’s the Dems who do that. As I’ve said above, if the d@#$% Dems had not been so obstructive, and actually provided useful suggestions, perhaps a lot of the mistakes could have been avoided.

And it was the nature of the conflict that dictated the “changes,” not the Dems. That sky%%!!)… could think the Dems were responsible for the surge, when they so obstinately opposed it, is absurdly typical of they way Liberals “think” (ie., not).

EVERYTHING THEY KNOW IS WRONG!

May 9th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
yonason
 18 

David (#14)

Precisely!

May 9th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
yonason
 19 

Finally, for the weekend, . . .

Yes, lets talk to Iran.

Fools!

But, before we let Bush off the hook (which in NO WAY justifies the malicious Dems) there’s more sad news of his inaction following his misguided interference in Lebanon.

May 9th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Aye Chihuahua
 20 

I wonder Sky.

Do you judge your entire life based only on your failures and the times that you fell short of where you would have liked to have been? Do you only consider those times when things went wrong or when you did something that didn’t turn out just right?

Or do you consider your life as a whole, in its entirety when deciding whether you have been a failure or not?

***

The rest of these folks have certainly addressed your comments as well as Doug’s so I belabor those points.

I do, however, want to address some of the things that you said.

You mention “Mission Accomplished” in your post. Can you tell me what you mean by that?

You also mentioned the number of soldier deaths last month. Do you have any idea why there was an uptick in deaths?

Also, please define for me exactly what “stay the course” means and how it is different now than prior to the ISG report that you and Doug are touting so strongly.

I just want to see if you are able to clearly enumerate for us what the differences, if any, are.

I already know what answers are. Do you?

May 9th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
doug
 21 

“The Iraq Study Group didn’t force anything.”

Then tell me, when were the first public indications that Bush was formulating a new strategy that later came to be: ‘The New Way Forward in Iraq”?
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070110-3.html

Some one feel game?

May 9th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
Curt
 22 

Puhlease.

Inside his own administration, Bush had few allies on a surge in Iraq aside from the vice president and a coterie of National Security Council (NSC) staffers. The Joint Chiefs were disinclined to send more troops to Iraq or adopt a new strategy. So were General George Casey, the American commander in Iraq, and Centcom commander John Abizaid. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice favored a troop pullback. A week earlier, the Iraq Study Group, better known as the Baker-Hamilton Commission, had recommended a graceful exit from Iraq.

The presence of former secretary of state James Baker, a longtime Bush family friend, on the commission was viewed in Washington and around the world as significant. It was assumed, correctly in this instance, that Baker wouldn’t have taken the post if the president had objected. (At least one top Bush adviser faulted Rice for not blocking the amendment by Republican representative Frank Wolf of Virginia that created the commission in the first place.) Baker was seen as providing cover for Bush to order a gradual retreat from Iraq.

But retreat was the furthest thing from Bush’s mind. “This is very trite,” he told me. “Failure was no option .  .  . I never thought I had to give up the goal of winning.” He wanted one more chance to win.

At the Pentagon, Bush listened sympathetically to the complaints and worries of the chiefs. He promised to ease the strain the war had put on the military. Bush knew the idea of deploying more troops and changing the strategy would be a tough sell. It had been hatched outside the Pentagon. Co-opting the chiefs was “tricky business,” an aide said. It “would be the most demanding civil-military challenge the president would face.”

Some of the president’s aides feared the chiefs would raise such strenuous objections to a surge that Bush would back off or, worse, they’d mount a frontal assault to kill the idea. Neither fear was realized. The session in the Tank lasted nearly two hours. When it was over, the chiefs were unenthusiastic. Weeks earlier, when Bush aides had asked them to draft a plan for what a surge would look like militarily, the Pentagon had dawdled. Now, with Bush doing the asking, the chiefs agreed to produce a surge plan. Bush had gotten all he needed from them–acquiescence. The surge was on.

You put WAY too much stock into the ISG. Not surprising coming from you Doug….but its put into the wrong place.

The summer before Bush’s visit to the Tank [ed. Dec 13, 2006], success in Iraq had seemed unattainable. As sectarian conflict mushroomed and violence in Baghdad lurched out of control, the president had reluctantly concluded the war in Iraq was being lost. His hopes for a stable Iraq, buoyed by three elections there in 2005 and the installation of a democratic government, had been dashed. “There was just a constant stream of reporting about an impending civil war or innocent people being just run over by lawlessness and armed gangs,” he told me when I interviewed him recently. “The cumulative effect of the rise in violence suggested to me we were going to have to do something different.”

By early November, the president had a pretty good idea what that something should be. On November 5, the Sunday before Election Day, he met with Robert Gates, deputy national security adviser and eventually CIA director in the administration of Bush’s father, at his ranch in Crawford, Texas. Bush was looking for a replacement for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, whose departure was to be announced the day after the election. Gates, president of Texas A&M University at the time, was his first choice.

Gates “informed me in the course of the conversation that, as a member of the Baker-Hamilton Commission, he favored a surge of additional troops in Iraq,” Bush said. This matched the president’s own view. “I was thinking about a different strategy based upon U.S. troops moving in there in some shape or form, ill-defined at this point, but nevertheless helping to provide more security through a more robust counterinsurgency campaign,” he said.

The president had been impressed by a plan developed by his NSC aides with advice from a loosely knit group of retired and active duty Army officers and civilian experts. It called for adding troops, protecting Iraqi citizens, securing Baghdad, and eventually pacifying the country. Bush received a daily written report on Iraq, and as conditions worsened in the fall he began to question NSC staffers informally about his options in Iraq. “Not every meeting in the White House is a formal meeting,” Bush told me. “A lot of times decisions can be formulated outside the formal process.”

The surge decision certainly was. By the time a formal NSC review began in October, followed by an “interagency” task force that met from mid-November to early January, Bush was quietly but solidly pro-surge. Had another credible plan for victory in Iraq come to his attention, Bush might have latched onto it. None did.

The ISG report certainly helped him see that the new ideas being brought to him were pretty good but that report in no way was responsible for the surge idea.

May 9th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
doug
 23 

Curt,

I didn’t state the “report [] was responsible for the surge idea”. Why are you mentioning this???

Go back, read my post 8; it never mentions the surge.

My theme in post 8 was:

“The ISG [] goaded him…”

“The ISG was a mechanism for a change of course: gone was “stay the course”; gone was Bush’s talk of Iraq as a beacon of democracy in the Middle East; and gone was any talk of victory:”

“The ISG goaded him to meet with the State Dept and Pentagon to plan a ’New Way Forward For Iraq.’”

So I respectfully, ask again, what was (or were) the mechanism, the agent, the catalyst, the vehicle that goaded Bush to change course, whip up a new strategy in Jan 07 that he called ‘A New Way forward in Iraq’?

Note: Curt has said: “But Bush adapted and sent in new leaders with new ideas who turned it around. Thats what good leaders do.”

My thesis in post 8: “Stating simply Bush “adapted and sent in new leaders with new ideas” ignores what goaded him to do more than “adapt”.

What was it that goaded him to do more than ‘adapt’? as I believe he reacted to a political atmosphere that was toxic –hardly the traits of a good leader.

What were the circumstances that made him draw up new plans called the “New Way Forward in Iraq”?

May 9th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Curt
 24 

Read the article I quoted above and you will get your answer

May 9th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
doug
 25 

Yeah, found it; here’s the answer:

* (AP) Late 2006, “71 percent of Americans who disapprove of President Bush’s handling of the Iraq war, an “all-time high.”

* (MSNBC) A group of military publications: the Army Times, Air Force Times, Navy Times, and Marine Corps Times — call on Rumsfeld to resign.

* 10.22.06 (NYT) “The White House said Monday that President Bush was no longer using the phrase “stay the course” when speaking about the Iraq war, in a new effort to emphasize flexibility in the face of some of the bloodiest violence there since the 2003 invasion.
“He stopped using it,” said Tony Snow, the White House press secretary.”

* After a Congressional election Bush loses congress.

* Donald Rumsfeld resigns as Secretary of Defense.

* ISG released in Dec. describing Iraq “grave and deteriorating”

Bush –”the good leader” reacts to politically toxic environment with a new Iraq strategy in January:

A New Way Forward in Iraq

Therefore, while Bush didn’t accept the recommendations of the ISG, the report did goad him into developing another plan.

May 9th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
Curt
 26 

Your retarded if you think Bush has listened to polls. If he was like a Clinton he would have withdrawn long ago.

The summer before Bush’s visit to the Tank [ed. Dec 13, 2006], success in Iraq had seemed unattainable. As sectarian conflict mushroomed and violence in Baghdad lurched out of control, the president had reluctantly concluded the war in Iraq was being lost. His hopes for a stable Iraq, buoyed by three elections there in 2005 and the installation of a democratic government, had been dashed. “There was just a constant stream of reporting about an impending civil war or innocent people being just run over by lawlessness and armed gangs,” he told me when I interviewed him recently. “The cumulative effect of the rise in violence suggested to me we were going to have to do something different.”

So he changed his strategy.

Your partisan blinders are pretty thick aye?

While Bush didn’t accept the recommendations of the ISG, the report did goad him into developing another plan.

That plan was under development before the report came out….you would know this if you have read the article. Figured you to be a partisan hack….was not disappointed.

May 9th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
doug
 27 

While he may have had a “plan under development before the report came out”, it didn’t come out until after the ISG, did it?

While the ISG didn’t in the strict sense ’cause’ the change in strategy, it certainly helped promote it; it helped goad bush to meet with the DoD and Pentagon to devise a New Way Forward.

It’s that simple. That’s why you’ve resorted to name calling.

I guess, perhaps, one could say he ‘adapted’ to the politically toxic loss of congress, the politically/publicly significant ISG, terrible poll numbers, inept Rumsfeldian abilities, changed his rhetoric on Iraq and …finally, changed course with: a New Way Forward.

Doesn’t even the name ‘New Way Forward’ have an inkling of public-pandering about it that shouts out: ‘We are doing something different now; calm down, trust me; we can get Iraq stable and contain the problem.’?

You don’t think so?

May 9th, 2008 at 8:26 pm
 28 

Doug seems to have an infinite capactiy as a naysayer. No, we can’t do X, Y or Z is about all I ever get from his comments. He has yet to offer ONE practical, effective alternative that would WORK to SOLVE these PROBLEMS.

Sorry Doug, but talking to Iran is not a plan, nor is it a solution, nor does it work.

Time for you and your chosen one to come up with something more than negativity.

May 9th, 2008 at 9:27 pm
doug
 29 

As i said last week, I’m simply being a counter balance to this blog.

If you gentlemen *truly* want to converse in a sea of respect with us, you need reconsider being objective, which is a really hard thing to do; if you can’t do that, then just try to not resort to name calling; if you can’t do that, then don’t reply.

If you want more than no, no, no from me …as it’s your blog, act like it.

May 9th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
Scott Malensek
 30 

If talking to Iran is a plan that will work, what is this claim based upon? There is no historical evidence in the entire history of the Islamic Republic that talking to them will convince them to stop killing Americans, stop pursuing a nuclear bomb (or 40yr), or to stop calling for the destruction of Israel. What is this idea based upon? Their policy is to promote the death cult of martyrdom as a means of propelling their international status and power, so threats won’t work. In fact, even economic threats (as mentioned by supporters of the talk-and-everything-will-be-fine idea show) will more likely increase and legitimize the Iranian pursuit of nukes.

btw, no one asks for counter-balancing efforts, but rather for solutions. Got nothing, then don’t whine and excuse it as “counter-balancing” or Devil’s advocate or ‘dissent.’

May 10th, 2008 at 5:33 am
john Ryan
 31 

Iran love this kind of talk !!
Every time the war lovers start talking about bomb bomb Iran the price of oil goes up.
You should ask and see if any of the oil companies will advertise on this site.

May 10th, 2008 at 7:28 am
Scott Malensek
 32 

John, opposition for opposition’s sake, and useless whining doesn’t solve the problem of Iran killing Americans, threatening to destroy Israel, and pursuing nuclear weapons. Let me say it plainly, a nuclear armed Iran is unacceptable.

What’s your solution? Begging?

May 10th, 2008 at 8:06 am
 33 

“Stay the course” was the slogan your beloved BUSH used wildly every time someone challenged him on the course the war was taking. He learned after years of using it that was a poor choice of words.

Doug answered this question very well.

As for the numbers of americans killed i mentioned.

In april 2008 the number of american deaths currently listed is 52

Oddly enough that is exactly the number of deaths april 2005….52

so the war there is nothing failed about this war????

give me a break

May 10th, 2008 at 8:40 am
 34 

What Iran loves is people like you John Ryan, Doug and 55110.

Everytime we back down in the face of Iranian provocations or aggression they get the green light to do more and more.

As you know, I’m reading former Sec. of State George Schultz’s memoir “Turmoil and Triumph.” I’ve just concluded the section where he discusses how Lebanon collapsed in civil war. He rightly concludes that after the Israelis were pressured into withdrawing from Lebanon without a corresponding agreement that Syrian forces would be removed both Syria and Iran were emboldened to step up their campaign. That led to the murder of 243 Marines in the Beirut barracks bombing by Iranian/Hezbollah suicide bombers.

Everytime you “withdraw now” people start your constant refrain of defeat and surrender, the enemy, which is Iran in case you didn’t know, is encouraged to do more and more.

It is the attitude of YOU PEOPLE that is encouraging Iran to build nuclear weapons and to make war using their proxies on the people of Lebanon, Israel and Iraq.

Again, you have nothing constructive to offer as an effective alternative. No ideas, nothing.

Perhaps you should just shut up and let the adults do the work you and your fellow Dems are so clearly incapable of doing.

May 10th, 2008 at 8:45 am
Aye Chihuahua
 35 

Now now Scott.

We all know that Iran only wants that nuclear technology and the resulting nuclear energy for peaceful reasons. They only want to use it to make clean, efficient, kind to the planet electricity. They’re trying to do their part to fight teh Global Warmening and the Great Impending Disaster that Al Goracle has been warning us about.

Don’t you wingnuts know that?

Since they are experiencing such a major shortage of affordable, accessible fossil fuels in Iran they have no other alternative but to use nuclear since that is all they have to fall back on. Those hamsters walking on the little wire wheels get tired after a while and you can only put up so many solar panels on the palace rooftops.

Nuclear is the only way that they can provide teh Universal Satellite TV and AC Programs that they have been promising.

Achmadinawhatever is being proactive in fighting global climate change even though we just finished the coldest April in 30 years or so.

All that destroy Israel silliness… that’s just CrAzY talk. Uh huh. Yeah, that’s all that is. You didn’t really take all that seriously did you? Nah, Iran loves Israel. Yes sir. They wanna give all those Jooooos great big wet kisses. Yeah, it’ll be great.

Killing American soldiers? Nah, that’s no big deal. Those guys aren’t really that smart anyway. They’re probably better off dead. No need getting upset over people being killed who cannot even read. I mean that is the only reason they ended up on Irak after all. Didn’t you know that?

Why does everyone want to insist on giving Iran such a hard time?

/sarcasm

^^(Just in case anyone needs to see that to be sure.)

May 10th, 2008 at 8:58 am
Aye Chihuahua
 36 

Sky,

You didn’t answer my questions.

I’m not surprised.

Care to try again or are they too difficult?

May 10th, 2008 at 9:00 am
 37 

Mike,

I am sorry you republicans don’t understand diplomacy. The right wing version of that always seems to be USE a bigger stick… You have had 8 years of that type of diplomacy… (cowboy special) if you believe it has been working well you are blind as hell!!!

Aye,

The “mission accomplished” statement refers to the day BUSH said “Major combat operations in Iraq have ended,”

what the hell do you call what is happening now???

To suggest the Iraq war is a success is ridiculous.

May 10th, 2008 at 10:35 am
Aye Chihuahua
 38 

I noticed that you still haven’t answered the questions.

Imagine that.

“The “mission accomplished” statement refers to the day BUSH said “Major combat operations in Iraq have ended,”

what the hell do you call what is happening now??? ”

I’ll give you a hint. It’s not major combat.

“To suggest the Iraq war is a success is ridiculous.”

Let’s see.

Oppressive thug regime defeated. Check.

Freedom for millions of people who have never experienced it before. Check.

Saddam finally at the end of his rope. Check.

Assurance once and for all that there are not stores of WMD ready to fall into the hands of terror groups. Check.

No more disappearances in the night. Check.

Mass graves no longer being filled. Check.

Torture chambers shut down. Check.

People no longer being bound and thrown off the roof of three story buildings. Check.

Libya disarmed. Check.

A democratic ally in the Middle East. Check.

Sounds pretty successful to me.

May 10th, 2008 at 10:56 am
 39 

Let’s see americans still being killed by at the same level as 3 years ago.. Failure

Iraq civilians being killed by numbers beyond belief… Failure

we are not wanted there by more that 60% of Iraq’s people… Failure

There is a severe shortage of water in Baghdad… Failure

Baghdad still does not have electricity 24/7….

Before we invaded Al Qaeda was not in Iraq…. Failure

Before we invaded Saddam held Iran in check… Failure

to say we have a democratic ally in the middle east.. meaning IRAQ.. who the hell can they help??

billions of dollars spent thousands of american lives lost for what????? if you tell me it is to protect the american homeland you full crap…

sounds like a failure to me…

oh and i didn’t know I blogged here to answer your questions AYE

May 10th, 2008 at 11:44 am
Aye Chihuahua
 40 

“Let’s see americans still being killed by at the same level as 3 years ago.. check”

Really? You have proof of that? Or is that another one of your wild exaggerati