May

Russia on the verge of another war-oil prices to skyrocket more?

Posted by: Scott @ 4:28 am in Europe, Military

Visited 609 times, 1 so far today

No doubt there will be the “It’s Bush’s fault” rantings, but Russia and the former Soviet republic of Georgia are on the edge of war over the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan.

This place has been a hot spot for decades. Many point to the defeat in Afghanistan, or the outspending by the Reagan Administration during the arms race, Pope John Paul’s in your face dissent in Poland, or a zillion other reasons that the Soviet Union collapsed.

Definitely a situation to watch.

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2 comments so far

This is wrong on a remarkable number of levels.

1. The trouble is over Abkhazia, officially a part of Georgia, but basically a Russian backed “non state” since a particularly vicious civil war in the early 1990s.

2. Azerbaijan is an oil rich but dirt poor independent republic, which has issues with Armenia over Nagorno Karabakh, but no beef with Georgia. Abkhazia and Azerbaijan have absolutely nothing in common, not even a border.

3. The Caucus mountains are not oil rich. If they were, Armenia and Georgia might have a couple of Kopecks to rub together. They don’t. The Caspian sea is where the oil is found. Azerbaijan is the only Caucasian state to border the Caspian.

4. “It’s like Chechnya, with oil and mountains”. No, nothing to do with oil, but check out the map some day. Gosh! Chechnya borders Georgia! It has mountains, too.

5: Azerbaijan never fought a war with Russia, so again is not needed.

6: Georgia and Russia have never fought a war, though Russia has undue military influence in Abkhazia and North Ossetia.

7: The much feted pipeline has been known as a white elephant for a decade at least, since the Caspian oil boom turned to bust. Any disruption to supply, while bad for producer (azerbaijan) and destination (Turkey) will have minimal to zero effect on global prices.

Definitely a situation to, er, read up on, Scott.

May 8th, 2008 at 9:35 am

Scott

Al, great comments! Thanks for the clarity