McClatchy Asks, Is Surge About To Fail?

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McClatchy to the liberal rescue!

They printed an article yesterday which should warm the heart of those liberals who so long for any sign of defeat in Iraq. In it they describe that the surge must, just has to be, falling apart because some of the Sadr thugs have been waging a gang war in Basra and the federal government of Iraq has the nerve to go in and restore order.

Can you believe the nerve of Maliki and company?

BAGHDAD — A cease-fire critical to the improved security situation in Iraq appeared to unravel Monday when a militia loyal to radical Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada al Sadr began shutting down neighborhoods in west Baghdad and issuing demands of the central government.

Simultaneously, in the strategic southern port city of Basra, where Sadr’s Mahdi militia is in control, the Iraqi government launched a crackdown in the face of warnings by Sadr’s followers that they’ll fight government forces if any Sadrists are detained. By 1 a.m. Arab satellite news channels reported clashes between the Mahdi Army and police in Basra.

The freeze on offensive activity by Sadr’s Mahdi Army has been a major factor behind the recent drop in violence in Iraq, and there were fears that the confrontation that’s erupted in Baghdad and Basra could end the lull in attacks, assassinations, kidnappings and bombings.

Sadr’s organization has asked for a cease fire:

A spokesman for Sadr’s office in Basra, Harith al-Athari, told AFP that the Sadrists wanted to end the stand-off.

“The situation is bad and we regret the fighting. We are ready for negotiations and want to calm things,” he said.

Liwa Sumaysim, head of Sadr’s political bureau in the central city of Najaf, denounced the bloodletting.

“We do not want the situation as it is in Basra. We are against bloodshed, especially in this critical period of time,” Sumaysim told AFP.

But the fact that much of the criminal element has gravitated to Sadr must be dealt with sooner or later…so why wait? If some of the Sadrists want to push the fight then so be it. The government must be in charge of these cities so in reality this fight is just one more step in ensuring that the country becomes stable sooner rather then later. Getting rid of the militias, either by fighting them or folding them into the government themselves, is a key to this stability but instead of seeing this the liberals believe any deviance from the norm is a sign that all is lost in Iraq.

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Most Bullies are just cowards covering up their own weakness.
When confronted by people willing to defend themselves;
off they go with their tail between their legs.

Uh… remember that Emboldenment Effect Harvard study that confirmed violence in Iraq increases after negative press? 

The release of the Pentagon Report IV generated really negative headlines that belied the contents, plus the recent release of more polls with negative opinions on Iraq.  (most especially in the wake of Cheney’s “so” comment).

Looks as if the jihad response follows true to the Harvard study results.  Who can be surprised that these attempts continue? And I suspect even Sadr loyalists have rogue elements that would not honor any cease fire sanctioned by Sadr himself.

Since I doubt these uprisings will go away completely (even after the US leaves security to Iraq’s hands), the goal is to leave Iraq in the position that they are able to control the effects of the fighting and maintain the stability of their elected govt.

It appears the Iraqi govt is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do.  And that is a sign of progress, not failure. 
 

This is from Michael Yon yesterday…encouraging news:

[From Western Nineveh Province, Northern Iraq
Despite recent news reports, progress in Iraq continues.  The 5th year, the 4,000th death… these are sad truths.  Also true is that violence is down and al Qaeda loses ground day by day.  The biggest challenge now is national reconciliation.
 
Nevertheless, I’ve planted myself up here in Nineveh where al Qaeda is making a last stand.  They are putting up a good fight, but my gut instinct is that AQI will essentially be finished in Iraq by the end of this summer.  This does not imply that they will be completely exterminated or that attacks will cease, but, for all intents and purposes, al Qaeda will have suffered a devastating defeat in Iraq.
 
Al Qaeda Central seems to have finally realized that the United States and Great Britain are the wrong animals to kick.   They might prefer easier targets in Europe.  Whatever happens, it’s clear that al Qaeda is devastated here.  What is left of al Qaeda here is being mulched, mostly up here in Nineveh, where I think there will be more fighting in the coming months.
 
Please read "Stake through their Hearts" to learn more about the fighting in Nineveh.]

Hmmm … if the security situation is unraveling, then why are the Sadrists asking for a cease-fire?

Well at this point a total unraveling of the situation in Iraq or McCain running around madly while screaming "I’m Napoleon" are pretty much the only way there’ll be a Democrat in the White House, so you can’t blame the MSM for hoping.

Who gave the Iraqi army their Wheaties/spinach?  Just two years ago they were deemed worthless and now after chasing Al Qaeda around, they are going after the biggest bully on the block.  This isn’t even a British or American attack followed by Iraqis, it’s an Iraq army attack with British forces acting as backup in the case of Basra. 

True Gregory,

In fact, the UK forces are providing air cover only because building an effective airforce takes much longer than a ground army to build and train.  Iraq has aircraft but is short on trained pilots and specialized combat planes.  Training these pilots takes a few years.  This latest operation, aside from helo and airborn recce support, is all Iraqi army and police.  Something we were told by the left would never happen and those of us saying it would (and working DAMN hard so it would happen) were told we were "conservative cheerleaders" and giving President Bush a "conservative free pass".

In all of this the most interesting unknown is Maliki’s relationship with Iran.  It’s the key to what’s really getting accomplished in Basra.

Gregory… INRE your statement:

This isn’t even a British or American attack followed by Iraqis, it’s an Iraq army attack with British forces acting as backup in the case of Basra. 

Actually it’s all Iraqis according to this AP story (last half of article).  British soldiers remained at their base.  There is air support, but they did not specify if it was US or British.

But the article dated today, 6:49PM (don’t know which time zone) says the battle is a’raging.  I lifted the Basra pertinents and have reposted here.

Basra, located near the Iranian border about 340 miles southeast of Baghdad, is the center of the country’s vast oil industry. Stability in the city is essential if Iraq is to attract huge investments needed to restore its neglected oil fields and export facilities.

Throughout the day, the sounds of explosions and machine gunfire echoed through Basra’s streets as Iraqi soldiers and police fought the Mahdi Army in at least four strategic neighborhoods.

At least 31 people were killed and 88 wounded, according to police and hospital officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not supposed to release the information.

Associated Press Television News video showed smoke rising over Basra, and coalition jets prowling the skies while ambulances raced through the streets.

Iraqi police and soldiers prevented journalists from reaching the areas of heaviest fighting, and it was unclear which side had the upper hand by sundown.

Iraqi military spokesman Col. Karim al-Zaidi acknowledged that government troops were facing stiff resistance.

Residents of one neighborhood said Mahdi Army snipers were firing from rooftops. Others fired rocket-propelled grenades at the troops, then scurried away on motorcycles. Other residents said police fled their posts.

Residents spoke by telephone on condition of anonymity because of fear of reprisals, and their accounts could not be confirmed.

British troops remained at their base at the airport outside Basra and were not involved in the ground fighting Tuesday, according to the British Ministry of Defense. Air support was being provided, but a spokesman would not say if it was U.S. or British planes.

The British had given assurances that the Iraqis could handle security in the city when they withdrew last year.

“A cease-fire critical to the improved security situation in Iraq appeared to unravel”

Ha! Appearance is reality to the left. UFO sightings anyone?

While the UK is doing air-support-only in Basra, the US and Iraqi forces are facing the same folks in Baghdad, according to http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/03/26/iraq.main/index.html

According to the US military spokesman, the target is not Sadrists in general, but those who have ignored the cease-fire. So, they’re affiliated with al-Sadr, but he has allegedly repudiated them? This is getting a bit confusing…

Wes,

In a previous post Gregory and I pointed out that Sadr’s "peace" was in the vein of Muhammed’s "peace" with the Jews who built and lived in Mecca (circa 600AD).  Sadr’s "cease-fire" was always a ruse to make others drop their guard.  Sadr’s Iranian masters may have forced his hand and now Sadr must bluff his way back to power at their behest.  It appears though that the Coalition and the Iraqi Army/Government called Sadr on his bluff.

Time and a lot of hard work on our part will tell if this is Sadr’s, and Iran’s, last stand in Iraq.  Sadr had all of his chances to work with the Iraqi government.  He chose his sides and now must live and die with that choice.

And yes, it is confusing with all the denials from Sadr and rifts in the Maadi (or Madi depending on translation) “Army”.

Hey, I hope the guy falls, and quickly.  One less power broker is a good thing in this situation.

Wes,

So long as Sadr falls (i.e. dies) a loser and a coward in Arab/Persian eyes.  If the "Downs Syndrome Boy" (popular Iraqi name for him) dies a "hero" then Iraq will have continued problems from his followers.