Moqtada al-Sadr Admits He’s Been Defeated in Iraq

Sadr realizes it’s done. The Iraqi people are sick of the violence and know the American Soldiers are there to help and Sadr sees this and want’s to join in on the money being made.

Soon Iraq will have a booming economy and he want’s in on some of that.

I wouldnt be surprised if he has what’s left of his followers chase out the remnant’s of Al-Quaida along with the US And Coalition Forces!

Bush resolve — I think it all fell apart when Iraqis decided they would rather have a chance at a decent society, instead of another tyranny. Much to the chagrin of Democrats.

Even to Shia in Iraq Moqtada al-Sadr is known as “The Downs Syndrome Boy” (or ‘Baby’ depending on their mood). I always thought he had a squished muppet/Charles Manson look to him myself.

When he fled Iraq in early 2007 for Iran (as we were capturing Iran’s “elite” forces and weapons), he lost a lot of support among Shia. This was coupled with growing support for the Coalition, Iraqi Army and improvments in the Iraqi Police in 2007. It took a while, but the peices are in place for Iraq to be the “Jewel of the Desert” as both a Sunni and Shia Iraqi said to me.

Now we just have to ensure the pieces do not fall apart. Running away guarantees failure. Winning means a stable Iraq with representative government, responsible military and police, a thriving economy, and good education systems. Islamofascism does not do well in such cultures.

I’m going to put in a two cents worth via Ray Robison’s book, Both in One Trench, which addresses Sadr’s reasoning for rise and questionable status with some detail.

Sadr had lineage from his father and some local support, but no theocratic sanction. This is similar to OBL less status, i.e.no religious authority to issue fatwas. Thus some of the bonds and mergers in order to be granted that authority.

Sadr, being the ambitious jihadist he is, wanted leap frog to power in Iraq, and saw the US entry as being a way to do so. Or as Robison put it:

Power-hungry Sadr needed a religious coup within the midst of a coup d’état. That was his only chance to immediate power. To rise to power, he needed to eliminate all of the leading Shi’a clerics and drive out the coalition forces, which is exactly what the Ba’athists needed as well:

Needless to say, with The Awakening movement thwarting his coup d’etat, plus Sadr’s previous assassinations of clerics (eliminating as much of the the chain above him as possible) did not result in his ascent to power.

In Dec 2007, Sadr announced he was returning to the seminary to obtain status of an Ayatollah, and get the necessary degrees required for Shi’a doctrines. He is doing this specifically to gain the religious status needed for his desired credibility…. both outside Sadr City, and across the region.

Thus, I would not count him out, nor defeated. He has not, nor will, lay down arms. We just need to consider him temporarily waylaid while he follows a more traditional path to power via education. However he has lineage that will prove invaluable, even if he does not attain the highest religious authority.

How embarrassing it must be to be grouped with these losers.
“Anti-war Democrat Harry Reid says the war is lost
Anti-war Democrat Nancy Pelosi says Iraq’s not even a war, but a situation to be “solved”
pseudo-anti-war Democrat Hillary Clinton says the war cannot be won”

Excellent comments all. MataHarley though is certainly right in that Sadr isn’t out. I too have heard that he’s returning to seminary to study. Obtaining Ayatollah will give him authority, but it may be too late by then.

Here’s something else from the WSJ article that I found interesting:

“In 2007, the U.S. military shifted approach, putting in place for the first time a comprehensive counterinsurgency strategy backed by a surge of troops to support it. The new strategy paid large dividends against al Qaeda and Sunni insurgents, as attacks dropped to 2005 levels and Iraqi deaths due to ethno-sectarian violence declined 90% from June 2007 to March 2008. As Sunni attacks against Shiite civilians declined, so did the rationale for Sadr’s authority.”

We have David Petraeus to thank for that. From late 2005 through 2006 he led the team that produced FM 3-24, the US Army / Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual. It was published in Dec of 2006, and is now the “bible” for our troops in Iraq.

I don’t see Sadr quitting. He is going into hiding to save his head and wait. When the time is right, he’ll come back out. Whether he comes back into the limelight as Ayatollah and attempts his rise that way or we elect a demorat who pulls out and Iraq becomes chaotic again, is yet to be seen.

One thing is for sure, as things stand at the moment, he’s toast if he stays in the picture. Either we will take him out or they will.

Wes, See comment #13. With these “peace” agreements concerning people like Sadr, all one has to do is read the Koran to know they must be an armed peace.