Clinton Obama Contest Charts Course for GOP Victory

Exposing the fundamental weak points in Dem electoral strategy!

While both Hillary and Obama tear into each other, reminding voters why both are unqualified to serve as President of the United States, their various state primary victories are revealing a roadmap that the GOP can use to win in November, despite who the Democrat nominee is.

Old School Dems vs. New Libs

It’s long been a fact that the Democrat Party is nothing more than a collection of special interest groups: unions, environmentalists, social activists etc. These folks don’t always play well together and the differences between them are becoming clearer as this closely contested nomination fight in their party proceeds.

The older Democrat voter, coming from middle class, union households tends to be more comfortable voting for Hillary Clinton. Younger voters, or newly minted liberals fresh out of college, as well as the hardcore activist types vote more heavily for Obama.

Hillary Clinton does well in states like Ohio and Rhode Island where the old school Dems still vote in great numbers. Barrack H. Obama did well in nearby Vermont and earlier in more newly minted liberal Wisconsin. It’s likely that Hillary will do well when Pennsylvania Democrats vote on April 22nd.

Hillary the Stronger General Election Candidate?

Thus far, Obama has held the lead in delegates by winning mostly smaller states and ones which usually end up in the Republican column in the general election. His weakness in Ohio and other large states may mean that Hillary would be a better candidate for the Dems against John McCain.

Both Michael Barone and the Washington Post have extensive analysis on that point.

GOP Roadmap

If Hillary is the Dem nominee, Obama will have supplied all the fresh ammunition necessary to remind voters just what another Clinton presidency would mean. She’d be very competitive in big states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, but factor in the disaffected Obama voters who are likely to be appalled at the way Hillary claws her way to the nomination and the GOP has a good shot at winning.

If Obama is the nominee, old school Dems with concerns about his experience and patriotism may well cross the aisle and vote for McCain. His weakness in Ohio would be particularly hard for him to overcome. The same is likely true in Pennsylvania.

The longer the Democrat nominating process continues, the more supporters of either Obama or Hillary dig in their heels and reject support for any other candidate. Republicans have their own buyer’s remorse problem, but it may be magnified among Democrats.