Feb

IAEA Collapses Into Irrelevance

Posted by: Scott @ 4:53 am in Anti-Americanism, Iran, Middle East, North Korea, Pakistan, Politics, Pre-Invasion, The Iraqi War, The UN, WMD | 2 views

The IAEA is useless. It failed to stop Saddam from pursuing nuclear weapons, and in 1981 the Israelis had to strike the Osirik reactor facility to prevent him from becoming a nuclear power with the world’s 4^th largest military as well. From 1981-1991, the IAEA effectively did nothing to stop Saddam’s nuclear ambitions. After Operation Desert Storm, the IAEA was on the verge of declaring that Saddam’s nuclear program had been destroyed in the war, but the defection of regime leaders revealed that Saddam had successfully hidden his program and even built a bomb (which only lacked enriched weapons grade uranium to be complete). Many of the facilities were subsequently destroyed, but in the summer of 2002 satellite imagery showed that buildings at Saddam’s nuclear facilities had been rebuilt. Inspectors went back into Iraq in late 2002, and in just a few weeks were ready to declare that Saddam’s nuclear facilities were destroyed. They failed to point out that literally hundreds of tons of partially enriched, highly dangerous uranium remained. After the invasion, former weapons inspectors found that Saddam had in fact successfully hidden key components and designs needed to restart his nuclear program, and he himself confessed that he had every intention of restarting his program once inspections were completely collapsed or removed.

This entity also failed to detect the Pakistani nuclear program, the Indian nuclear program, the AQ Khan nuclear black market network, the Libyan nuclear program, the Syrian nuclear program, and the North Korean nuclear program. It failed to stop any of those programs. It also failed to detect or stop the Iranian nuclear program (peaceful or belligerent, it went undetected by the IAEA).

So I ask, what relevance does this group have given the history of seeing no evil, hearing no evil, and doing nothing against evil (though it has been consistent in chastising those who take action against nuclear programs run by rogue, terrorist-supporting, dictatorial regimes)?

UPDATE:

Britain’s ambassador to the IAEA, Simon Smith, said the material presented to the board of governors on Monday contained information about possible weapons work beyond that date.

“Certainly some of the dates that we were talking about, or that the secretariat was presenting in there, went beyond 2003,” Smith said…

Diplomats attending the briefing said the material presented to the board of governors had infuriated Iranian ambassador Ali Asghar Soltanieh…

The board was presented with material “from multiple sources” suggesting “detailed work put into the designing of the warhead, studying how that warhead would perform, how it would be detonated and how it would be fitted to a Shahab-3 missile,” Smith said.

The material was “serious and substantial,” the ambassador continued.

And it underlined the IAEA secretariat’s concern that the deficit of confidence in Iran, rather than being reduced, “if anything, is getting deeper,” he said.

LINK

sm-THANK YOU CAPTAIN OBVIOUS

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This entry was posted on Monday, February 25th, 2008 at 4:53 am and is filed under Anti-Americanism, Iran, Middle East, North Korea, Pakistan, Politics, Pre-Invasion, The Iraqi War, The UN, WMD. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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25 comments so far

T-Ray

Well there is a bit of “flop” here after all. Where in the world did you find so much gossip to gather up into this wad of flop. You are still beating the dead-horse issue of WMD in Iraq. I can’t believe it. Also to bring up the Nuclear Programs in India and Pakistan which the US helped to create (against the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty) is interesting. Also the irony of pointing out all the supposed programs that the IAEA didn’t stop, while this administration is trumpeting it’s success in helping to create a nuclear Pakistan is astonishing. Hey next can we talk about multi-billion dollar arms deals by us and allies to Saudi Arabia, or funneling loads of money to Iraqi militias to not fight, while they amass funds for future use (kinda like the Charlie Wilson deal). If you, like I, truly want to have a Nuclear free middle east, then maybe the USA could stop providing the necessary materials to these countries. Oh and if you want to really nail the coffin lid shut on the bad ol’ IAEA, maybe point out how any other group/country has worked well towards that end.

February 25th, 2008 at 6:48 am

Scott

T-Ray, interesting post. I didn’t know the US both built and was surprised by the Pakistani and Indian nuclear programs. Wow. Makes the idea of bad intelligence even more sound.

Let’s recap:
Pakistani nuclear program
-undetected by IAEA,
-undetected by US
-still in place, but halted by US negotiation

Indian nuclear program
-undetected by IAEA
-undetected by US
-still in place, but halted by US negotiation

Iraqi nuclear program
-undetected by IAEA
-stopped by Israelis in 1981
-stopped by US in 1991
-undetected by IAEA
-destroyed thanks to defector

Libyan nuclear program
-undetected by IAEA
-removed by US

Syrian nuclear program
-undetected by IAEA
-removed by Israelis

North Korean nuclear program
-undetected by IAEA
-halted and removed by US

AQ Khan network
-undetected by IAEA
-removed by US

Looks like the IAEA track record remains ZERO despite your effort at distraction and topic shift

February 25th, 2008 at 7:07 am

T-Ray

Well then, I guess that the world is safe and we got a handle on all this stuff you brought up. Yea! Oh, just one little thing. Who did the detecting to know where to go and remove/halt all this. The same people who removed and halted said things. Oh well then it must be true because the US and Israeli intelligence said so. “Yeah, you’re doing……. you’re doing good.”

February 25th, 2008 at 7:31 am

Scott

Let’s try a third time…T-Ray, what nuclear programs has the IAEA detected and stopped?

February 25th, 2008 at 7:34 am

Jeff

From the report.

“During the current conversion campaign at UCF, which began on 31 March 2007, approximately 120 tonnes of uranium in the form of UF6 had been produced as of 2 February 2008. This brings the total amount of UF6 produced at UCF since March 2004 to 309 tonnes, all of which remains under Agency containment and surveillance.”

There don’t seem to be a lot of brakes on the Iranian nuclear program. UN sanctions sure haven’t got Iran’s attention.

More on the report here, including a link to the report itself.

http://peacelikeariverblog.com/cgi/wp/?p=113

February 25th, 2008 at 8:34 am

T-Ray

Well I honestly don’t know. I do know the IAEA weapons inspectors were doing their jobs in Iraq when told to leave within 48 hours so the US could go get those weapons they weren’t finding.

A little background:
The IAEA serves as an intergovernmental forum for scientific and technical co-operation in the peaceful use of nuclear technology worldwide. The IAEA’s programmes encourage the development of the peaceful applications of nuclear technology, provide international safeguards against its misuse, and facilitate the application of safety measures in its use. IAEA expanded its nuclear safety efforts in response to the Chernobyl disaster in 1986.

The IAEA’s mission is guided by the interests and needs of Member States, strategic plans and the vision embodied in the IAEA Statute (see below). Three main pillars – or areas of work – underpin the IAEA’s mission: Safety and Security; Science and Technology; and Safeguards and Verification.

Now I ask you, has our country been a helpful entity towards the IAEA or a roadblock. It seems that often times we as a nation tend to think it’s “our way or the highway” when dealing with “international” organizations. Kinda counter-productive I think. In the case of Pakistan, the US has alternated between sanctions and support for their program depending on what’s up in Afghanistan.

As far as I can tell, Libya, Syria and Al Khan claims are only supported by the same folks who brought me the WMD (mushroom clouds) in Iraq meme. Not credible in my opinion. No one has even confirmed what Israel bombed in Syria.

I googled Pakistan Nuclear and India Nuclear and several sources seem to think both are intact. Here is one example you may find credible. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL34248.pdf

I will leave one more question on my way out. How many nuclear programs has the IAEA fostered vs. the USA and other supposed member countries?

February 25th, 2008 at 8:43 am

T-Ray

Jeff, Iran has every right to a nuclear power program.

February 25th, 2008 at 8:46 am

Scott

T-Ray, the IAEA declared Saddam’s Iraq as not a nuclear threat weeks before the U.S. invaded and found all the stashed components. I think your 48hr reference is to the U.S. giving up (rightfully so) on UNMOVIC (or possible UNSCOM in 1998). Remember, UN weapons inspectors are not weapons hunters they were there to Monitor Observe and Verify (hence UN M O V IC).

btw, you’re totally right. Iran has every right to nuclear power. No one disputes that. Pres Bush has said it often. Problem is, they’re not developing peaceful nuclear power.
-laptop w plans to make a bomb
-blueprints for compressing enriched uranium into sphere for bomb core
-secret facilities hidden from IAEA for no reason, then dismantled and even soil removed before IAEA could inspect
-enrichment facilities built underground w steel reinforcement/armor, surrounded by special brigades of troops and heavy air defenses
-no electrical power grid built
-oh yeah, and they’ve got more than enough oil as well as geothermal and other cheaper renewable electric power generation abiltiies

Nah, they wanna make bombs. Probably have one already

February 25th, 2008 at 8:52 am

T-Ray

Scott, yes there ARE OTHER sources of energy that need to be developed as opposed to attacking others for the profit making one. Once again quoting the political intelligence agencies “evidence” holds no sway with me. Fool me once……..

February 25th, 2008 at 9:21 am

T-Ray

“before the U.S. invaded and found all the stashed components.”

I would love to read about this.

February 25th, 2008 at 9:23 am

T-Ray

My 48 hour reference was to W’s speech. I watched that in Vienna the day after I had told friends of mine there, “there’s no way we can invade Iraq right now with the UN inspectors there not finding any weapons”. Bam! next day Bushy is telling them get out ’cause I’m coming.

February 25th, 2008 at 9:27 am

Anonymous correction

Right, I wouldn’t normally stoop to even comment on this kind of trash, but since you’re trying to “call out” the IAEA, you should probably get facts on it before you start writing. Hopefully this comment thread recognizes links:

Iran
- Condemned by IAEA for clandestine activities in 2003
- Subsequently cooperated more thoroughly with IAEA to expose A.Q. Khan network (see below) and signed agreement with UK, France, Germany against weaponization (2004)

Pakistani nuclear program:
- Known by IAEA prior to them “getting the bomb” (well-documented in 1997 here)
- Not subjected to IAEA safeguards due to Pakistani government’s non-participation in NPT

Iraqi nuclear program:
- IAEA verifies Hussein lied about nuclear materials (1991), updates protocols to increase oversight
- Confirmed program defunct in 2003 prior to U.S. invasion, including this nugget from the CIA: “Before its departure from Iraq, the IAEA made significant strides toward dismantling Iraq’s nuclear weapons program and unearthing the nature and scope of Iraq’s past nuclear activities. In the absence of inspections, however, most analysts assess that Iraq is reconstituting its nuclear program—unraveling the IAEA’s hard-earned accomplishments.”
- Also confirmed defunct by U.S. intelligence and military efforts in 2004-2005 after U.S. invasion

A.Q. Khan network
- Suspected by U.S. intelligence in 2001-2002
- Verified by IAEA (2003) through inspections in Iran
- Further investigated by IAEA, this time with cooperation from Pakistani government, due to nuclear safeguard issues

North Korean nuclear program
- Suspected by IAEA, but undocumented due to lack of NK cooperation
- NK withdraws from NPT (2003), removing any IAEA oversight
- Verified by NK itself (2005-2006); has not been verified halted

If you’re going to trot out an attempt at asserting an agency has been impotent, you should at least do a decent job of, you know, reading one or two things about the topic first. The above docs were all found in about an hour of online research. I’m sure there’s plenty more where all that came from.

February 25th, 2008 at 9:27 am

Buzz

Anonymous correction, thanks for demonstrating the complete uselessness of the IAEA.

February 25th, 2008 at 9:45 am

Scott

T-Ray, the ISG Duelfer Report has some interesting pictures showing the vast amount of nuclear program components that Saddam had successfully hidden. It’s worth the download.

I’ve lots of sources showing that Saddam was preparing and sought to restart his program, but Operation Iraqi Freedom prevented him from doing so.

Also, in re to the inspectors being kicked out 48hrs before invading, again, those were not IAEA inspectors, but UNMOVIC ones. The IAEA had already-incorrectly-declared that Iraq was not a nuclear threat.

Also, the stuff I listed about the Iranian nuclear program (bomb designs, laptop, bomb core designs, etc.,) each of those was either confirmed or directly detected and dismissed by the IAEA-including the lack of a power grid, but the massive military-like design of their enrichment facilities. Great sat pics on the web if you go to global security.org…
—
anonymous, nice job. my compliments. Now for the sad news….

The AQ Khan network was infiltrated and exposed by the US/UK in 2001/2002 according to the British Butler Report and other sources. IAEA did little more than rubber stamp it after the fact.

The Iranian nuclear program was uncovered by the US/UK when the infilitrated the AQ Khan network and found that he was illegally sending nuclear program stuff to Iran. US reported it to IAEA, and IAEA started the rhetoric in 2003.

The North Korean program was discovered by US in 1993/4 and the restart was discovered by US spy planes testing the pollutants in the air off the coast of the DPRK. In both cases the IAEA was notified and effectively had no impact. DPRK has supposedly agreed to halt their program and this will be verified by US not IAEA since IAEA is POS

Back to the Iraqi nuclear program…

Dr David Kay to Sen Allard of the Sen Arm Srv Com:

ALLARD: OK, I have one other question. What can you tell us about Iraq’s efforts to restart its nuclear program in 2000 and 2001?

KAY: As best as has been determined — and this is obviously something the investigation is continuing — in 2000 they had decided that their nuclear establishment had deteriorated to such a point that it was totally useless.

KAY: They started — the main center is a center called Al Tuwaitha, which is — in fact, I think you probably flew over it. You generally do when you go around Baghdad.

It’s a large site, but the physical facilities had seriously deteriorated. They started building new buildings, renovating it, hiring some new staff and bringing them together, and they ran a few physics experiments, re-ran experiments they’d actually run in the ’80s. Fortunately, from my point of view, Operation Iraqi Freedom intervened and we don’t know how or how fast that would have gone ahead.

ALLARD: So it was definitely a threat as far as you’re concerned in 2001, 2000?

KAY: Given their history, it was certainly an emerging program that I would not have looked forward to their continuing to pursue. It was not yet up as a full nuclear production site again.
-1/28/04 Dr. David Kay testimony to Sen Arm Srv Com

February 25th, 2008 at 9:48 am

ChrisG

German papers citing the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) dissagree with the premise that Iran’s program is peaceful and for power generation.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,536914,00.html

February 25th, 2008 at 11:46 am

Mike's America

I think T Ray lapsed into a moment of truthfullness when he said : “Well I honestly don’t know”

And the rest of the time when he claims to know, I wonder if he’s being honest!

P.S. You have to get T-Ray on the Obama/Afghanistan thread:

http://www.floppingaces.net/2008/02/21/obama-on-afghanistan/#comment-19955

We’re running low on moonbat gas!

February 25th, 2008 at 12:53 pm

Robert in BA

I just like the fact you didn’t argue that it was actually Bush who threw the weapons inspectors out, and not Saddam. Nice of you to acknowledge the truth after 5+ years.
In another 5 years, will you admit that Saddam gave the UN a 12,000+ page report stating exactly what happened to the WMDs (the US gave him) on 12/7/2002?

February 25th, 2008 at 1:39 pm

Buzz

“I just like the fact you didn’t argue that it was actually Bush who threw the weapons inspectors out, and not Saddam.”

After they had been thrown out for years by Saddam, and after it was apparent that he was pulling the exact same dog and pony show as before.

“stating exactly what happened to the WMDs (the US gave him) on 12/7/2002?”

US gave Saddam no WMDs. You’ll want to look towards the Europeans for Saddam’s Bio/Chem Weapons.

February 25th, 2008 at 2:03 pm

Scott

Robert, I believe you have your calenders mixed up. The 12,000+ page declaration was given by Iraq in December 2002, but 3 months later on March 6, 2003 the UN inspectors (UNMOVIC, led by Dr Hans Blix) presented the UN with the list of Unresolved Disarmament Issues (ie, WMD). That report listed 129 pages of issues commonly described as “WMD”, but it was more than just WMD. It also listed at least 5 different ways for Iraq to prove it had disarmed (as the onus was on Iraq to prove its disarmament according to the UN). Those 5 ways ranged from merely writing a report on what had happened to the specific “wmd” issue, to actually providing evidence of destruction. The inspectors were not weapons hunters, but there to Monitor Observe and Verify Iraq’s disarmament claims. Iraq didn’t even bother to write a fictional story in most cases, and after so many years it was clear that inspections just weren’t going to work. So, the President told the inspectors and Saddam to leave. I strongly urge you to read Dr Blix’ Unresolved Disarmament Issues report as it clearly shows the 12,000 page declaration you put so much stock in was nowhere near complete. It was a farce-according to the UN.

February 25th, 2008 at 2:24 pm

T-Ray

Wow! Lots and lots of stuff out there. Thanks to all for point me towards all the articles. It seems you can find contradictions between all of them (some even within the write-up). I guess we all chose to believe what we need to believe. I still and will forever believe that killing people to get your way just doesn’t work. Until human beings decide to look each other in the eye and see themselves looking back, we will continue to blame the other for the “bad stuff”. I don’t buy it. It all comes down to the money/power and the ability to enslave or defeat others for comfort. This is our one world. No others. It’s not God or the boogie man doing the killing. It is human beings choosing to believe something that makes them feel alright with killing another. No different than the junkie in the 7-11. Just a bigger store and weapons. Them us, it’s all the same.

February 25th, 2008 at 7:59 pm

Chris Velguth

I always found it extremely hipocritical that the Bush administration wouldn’t name its source as to the W.M.D. hunt in Iraq. Oh guess they did’t want everyone to remember that it was his fathers C.I.A. that supplied it to them to fight Iran. Guess thats why Isreal had to sit back and take it over that one. Its amazing that we have had to sacrafice how many american soldiers because of the greed and lack of vision to the future the Bush family has. and amazingly they were able to snow the american public, no make that continue to snow the american idiot public into financing there personal interests. WAKE UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

February 25th, 2008 at 9:56 pm

Scott

“Them us, it’s all the same.” I beg to differ. American soldiers and Marines are not the same people as the Republican Guard or Fedeyeen Saddam.

Chris V, you’re mistaken in a grand way if you think that the US was the primary supplier for Saddam. Please read up and come back

February 26th, 2008 at 3:54 am

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