2008 National Intelligence Estimate Vindicates Bush Foreign Policy

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While political pundits, politicians, hundreds of millions of Americans, and millions more around the world watched Super Tuesday results with confused and bated breath yesterday, a bigger and more important story went almost completely unreported. The Director of National Intelligence (DNI) presented Congress with yet another National Intelligence Estimate (a summary of opinions presented by a committee of representatives from all 17 American intelligence entities).


This National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) is uncharacteristically well-written. It coldly, and apolitically presents the good, the bad, the ugly, and surprisingly addressed a long-time suspicion of those who support the war in Iraq about the frequent, deliberate, misleading of information regarding that war as a means of opposing it politically.

I was surprised, and in the strongest possible way I suggest everyone who is interested in the security of the United States should read this report. It’s a whole 47 pages, but the text is almost all 1-column and only covering 1/2 the page. Again, the NIE is also unusually well written, concise, and clear.

People who suffer from Bush Derangement Syndrome (BDS) will find lots to complain about, but that’s the nature of the syndrome (see also Rosie O’Donnell’s claim this week that President Bush almost killed her back in 2000) .

However, there is a LOT of very good news in this report as well. The Bush Administration’s efforts to work with the UN, NATO, EU, and Arab League (coupled with the invasion of Iraq) does in fact appear to have prevented Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. The Bush Administration’s international diplomatic efforts and negotiations with North Korea seem to have successfully stopped North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons. The Bush Administration’s diplomatic and military offensive in Iraq has met with great success. And Al Queda’s capabilities and leadership have been severely reduced by the litany of Bush Administration counter-terrorism efforts around the world.

As I said, there is a lot of bad news as well-fuel for opponents of President Bush to distort, mislead, and present absent the counter good news; absent the full story, full perspective, and full truth.

  • Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain. Iran’s international support of terrorists is on the rise in quantity and quality. Iran’s economic imposition of political will internationally remains on the rise.
  • North Korea has threatened to give nuclear weapons to terrorist groups if threatened.
  • The international drug and organized crime threat is on the rise.
  • Al Queda may be severely wounded and pinned down, but it’s not out for the count.

The two things that surprised me the most were Al Queda’s recent upgrade from dreaming and dabbling with WMD to actually field testing. Apparently they tried injecting watermelons with poison. Those watermelons were bound for an Iraqi Army unit. Thankfully, the soldiers only became ill, and there were no deaths, but the point remains: Al Queda is no longer just dreaming about using WMD. They’re trying it.

To make matters worse, the US vs Them narrative continues from Al Queda, but it’s now in-line with the homegrown anti-Bush/”anti-war” movement here in the U.S.

“While the threat from such homegrown extremists is greater in Europe, the US is not immune. The threat here is likely to be fueled in part by propaganda and mis-characterizations of US foreign policy as harmful to Muslims, rather than by any formal assistance from al-Qa’ida or other recognized groups. The al-Qa’ida-propagated narrative of an “us versus them” struggle serves both as a platform and a potential catalyst for radicalization of Muslims alienated from he mainstream US population.”

This message has always been targeted at Muslims around the world in much the same manner as WWII NAZIs presented the repetitive “stabbed in the back” and “enemy among us” message about German-Jews; us vs them. It’s classic propaganda, but now the US intelligence community’s 17 different entities confirm that this message is resonating with Americans, and terrorism inside the US is now a growing threat-not because of a growth in Al Queda infiltration, but because of the increased infiltration of Al Queda’s propaganda-Muslims are being oppressed by the Bush Administration.

Again, in the strongest possible way, I encourage everyone who is concerned about American security, and the threat to our lives, to take some time and at least skim through this report. Be realistic when reading it too. After all, it is a threat assessment-not a rah rah rah political tambourine refrain. There is some ugliness to it, but be brave. There is some bad news in it, but have hope: there is some good news in it too.

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This message has always been targeted at Muslims around the world in much the same manner as WWII NAZIs presented the repetitive “stabbed in the back” and “enemy among us” message about German-Jews; us vs them. It’s classic propaganda, but now the US intelligence community’s 17 different entities confirm that this message is resonating with Americans, and terrorism inside the US is now a growing threat-not because of a growth in Al Queda infiltration, but because of the increased infiltration of Al Queda’s propaganda-Muslims are being oppressed by the Bush Administration.

As Curt and Mike know, I’ve been backing off from the “Islamo-fascism/Islamo-Nazism/Jihad” labeling, in favor of “hirab“. If for nothing else, for counter-propaganda purposes.

I think some of the rhetoric coming from the right only throws kindling on the flames of al-Qaeda propaganda. Crapping on Islam as a whole, rather than distinguish

1)criticism of the salafi and wahhabi fundamentalists
2)war with the militant radicals who engage in terrorist activities
3)the millions of peaceful Muslims who just want to go about their business

There is a difference.

I’ve been looking at Dick Cheney’s transcripts for another topic, and the notion that the Bush Administration is engaging in a war against Muslims, is just hogwash (to the consternation of the “Islam is a religion of hate” conservative crowd):

From Meet the Press, September 16, 2001, five days after the events of 9/11:

MR. RUSSERT: Mr. Vice President, how difficult and delicate is it to send this message that we’re going to uproot terrorism and Osama bin Laden and some other cells, but that this is not a war against Islam and not a war against all Arab people?

VICE PRES. CHENEY: We have to continually remind folks of that. The president has been very clear, and it would be a huge mistake for we as Americans to assume that this represents some kind of–or should lead us to some kind of condemnation of Islam. It’s clearly not the case. This is a perversion, if you will, of some of these religious beliefs by an extremist group. We have extremists associated with, you know, every imaginable religion in the world. But this is by no means a war against Islam. We’ve got a great many Arab Americans, for example, who are first class, loyal American citizens. We need to make certain that we don’t make the mistake of assuming that everybody who comes from a certain ethnic group or certain religious background is somehow to be blamed for this. Clearly, that’s not the case. They are as appalled by it as we are.

Scott, an excellent summary of the NIE.

As opposed to the previous NIE, this particular document is quite devoid of the politics. It gives a clear and concise presentation and analysis of the situation in a professional manner.

Indeed, the concern here at home, is whether the BDS crowd have allowed themselves to be transformed into AQ sympathizers and facilitators. Many of the talking points of the BDS crowd and AQ are shared viewpoints. Whether the BDS crowd would act to facilitate and act in accordance with the AQ network, that’s a tough call. However, in other times, their conduct would have certainly constituted sedition.

In a side observation, the morning news from our local FOX affiliate showed a snippet from the Senate public testimony on the NIE. The senators present, both Democrat and Republicans, seemed very disinterested in what the DNI was saying. I suspect this NIE document being quite professional in character had something to do with the lack of interest.

“Islamic Holy Warriors” probably fits best. “Fundamentalist, Militant Islamists” I found today might be too long and confusing. And yes, I second that these “warriors” love the Western Left. Dhimmis were always loved by jihadists during the expansions of Islam. Then they are subjegated and eventually made extinct.

As for the NIE, my eye caught on the cyber warfare threats. We are under attack hourly from Chinese and Russian cyber attacks. China is the most prevalent, but the Russian “Storm” worm/bot may be even more devestating in the end. Every day, the US Defense networks are attacked by Chinese hackers seeking holes in our security. China itself has cited cyber war as a primary means of attacking us.

For a “universe” that has no physical being, the internet is a very dangerous place.

Printing the thing out now to read it through….thx Scott.