Super Tuesday Forecast

Unless someone stands at the poll entrance with a baseball bat, Mitt is supposed to take Utah in a landslide where he is up about 40 points on everyone else.

Mike, I suspect Romney will take all the Western states, in terms of achieving the voting majority, other than (necessarily) Arizona and the Pacific Northwest. The North East winner-take-all situation is of course a really bad hurdle. The real cliff-hangers are IMO Georgia for the sheer number of delegates and California (by even 1%) for the psychological boost. Tenn and Mo look pretty much lost to Mitt, but they are still close enough to watch and there has got to be a reason why he made a stop in Tenn. This is one exciting election, and for high stakes!

I think Mitt has a good shot in any caucus state (so far McCain has gotten wiped out in every caucus except Louisiana, and it’s still not clear whether he won there). And there’s a lot of caucus states. Super Tuesday alone: West Virginia, North Dakota, Alaska, Minnesota, Montana, Oklahoma, Colorado. Of these, I expect Romney to do well everywhere except maybe Minnesota.

I can’t believe that anyone would consider Romney a Conservative! He has been pro-abortion, anti-gun, pro-tax increase and pro-gay marriage!

He has precisely the same resume as the nuckle-head in office now except he did not fail at all of his businesses as W did.

This guy is nothing but a pandering hair-do with a pocket full of cash. You are all so easily fooled.

It is not that we think that Romney is that much of a conservative. It is that he is not McCain. McCain is worse than Romney on many of the issues we hld dear. See, there areno more consservatives inthe race, so we have to vote for the lesser of 3 evils. McCain is just bad on 1st amendment, Illegal immigration, Gitmo, and has stabbed the GOP in the back for years, hell he even was thinking about quitting the GOP. Huckabe, well he is the same ilk as Dhimmi Carter. He wouldbe like The Silky Poney Edwards, a populist. That leaves Romeny, unless you think the tin foil hat wearing Ron Paul has any chance of coming out of his cave.

West Virginia:
McCain’s rep just gave a pretty bad speech at the convention. Huckabee is going to have the last word. Paul gave a decent speech, Romney likewise. Between sending a rep (when the other candidates showed up in person), coming in with basically no committed delegates, and having his guy flub his sales pitch I’d say McCain is toast here. But because the election is a runoff until majority strange things could still happen. The worry would be that McCain somehow outlasts Huckabee and then picks up his delegates in the final runoff. But I think it’s actually more likely that the final two will be Huckabee and Romney, at which point anyone who is strategically committed to McCain will go to Huckabee just to deny Romney victory.

>>But I think it’s actually more likely that the final two will be Huckabee and Romney, at which point anyone who is strategically committed to McCain will go to Huckabee just to deny Romney victory.>>

_That’s_ interesting. I sure don’t see it that way. I don’t think it’s likely that it will be Huckabee and Romney, and I don’t see that everyone committed to McCain will go to Huckabee. If you said that it would be McCain and Romney, and that anyone committed to Huckabee would go to McCain, I’d agree. I suspect Huckabee could be the kingmaker in the crowd…he’d never go to Romney because of the religious thing – and his followers might agree with him. I don’t see McCain as being in that mindset – I think they’d consider Romney.

But then …what do I know! Life surprises me every day!

The last poll in Colorado was done awhile ago, may be six weeks. Anyway, Rudy and Mitt were running even, with a slight advantage to Mitt, and McCain running a very distant third. When Rudy dropped out last week, there was a feeling most of his support went to Mitt. Simply, there’s a strong dislike for McCain here, particularly in the sizeable active and retired military community.

The one who has invested big in advertising is Ron Paul. Of course, his ads are nonsense, especially his tag line of that “tent cities” have sprung next to neighborhoods that are full of foreclosures. The implicit line is that “it’s the President’s fault” on the foreclosures. “Yeah, Bush pressed the foreclosure button on his desk, just like he pressed the Hurricane Katrina button.”

I would be surprised if McCain wins here in Colorado.

“He has precisely the same resume as the nuckle-head in office now except he did not fail at all of his businesses as W did.” by CentFla.

I know this is a bit off topic, but how is President Bush a “nuckle-head”?? And, his businesses? I think you might need to use your spell check next time, by the way. It’s “knucklehead”.

Second-hand, from here. They don’t appear to be very good in hindsight – they show 1207 delegates and only 1133 voted in the first round, so who knows. But they’re roughly consistent with other reports I’ve seen.

For what it’s worth, it sounds like Paul *also* helped out Huckabee. At least, I see a report that he traded his block of voters for 3 national delegates (see here, read the blog entries…).