Polls, polls, and more polls. Regular readers know I have no faith in any of them, whether they agree with my position or not. But I figured a post on the recent polls couldn’t hurt on a Superbowl Sunday so here ya go.
First, the poll with the largest sampling, therefore the more reliable one, the Reuters/CSpan/Zogby poll, with 1185 Likely Voters, shows Romney leading McCain in California 37% to 34%. Good news.
This poll had 481 likely voters in the Republican primary in California with a margin of error of +/-4.5%. Less then half that of the Zogby poll and it shows McCain over Romney 32% to 24%. The McClatchy-MSNBC poll had 400 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/-5% and shows McCain over Romney 40% to 31% and finally RCP has McCain over Romney 35% to 30%.
Quite a mix going on there huh?
The thing that makes my state interesting is that the winner does NOT take all. We have 173 delegates to dole out but they are awarded on a congressional district basis. So basically its 53 separate primaries. The coast areas are going to go liberal and will back McCain I’m sure. But when you get east of there it can be quite conservative. So Romney may just be able to come out of this state with a tie. We shall see. My vote has already been cast with a absentee ballot and I checked off Romney.
As for the other states the McClatchy poll had McCain over Romney in Missouri 37-24, in Georgia 33-27, and New Jersey 46-31. Rasmussen has McCain over Romney in Arizona 43-34, they also note:
Among conservatives in his home state, McCain trails 44% to 36%. However, he holds a forty-three point lead among political moderates in the state.
Rasmussen has McCain over Romney in New York 49-30, no shocker there. In Connecticut its 42-26. In Alabama its McCain 38-30.
In Colorado RCP has Romney over McCain 43-24.
So what to make of all this?
Hell if I know….I already told you I don’t trust polls but in the majority of states, if you believe the polls McCain is winning. Some by a little, some by a lot. Here is Hugh:
If the swing towards Romney in California continues, he will emerge from Tuesday’s contest in a solid second place with a new narrative and a renewed debate about the race –can Romney surpass McCain in Ohio and Texas in March? The rapidly fading Huck would simply disappear, as he is doing in many places where the obvious has already registered: A vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain.
And Patrick Ruffini:
Should the Republican race go on, I’d expect McCain to have an advantage in the next wave of 2/12 primaries because of his moderate/Washington credentials. The next big stops would be delegate-rich Texas and Ohio on March 4th. By this point, Huckabee will probably have thrown in with McCain, testing what a one-on-one conservative vs. moderate race looks like in the most Republican large state of all, Texas. Here, Romney is not hobbled as he is in other Southern states, because his base, metro conservatives, is huge in Texas. Suburban Houston and Dallas is probably relatively hospitable territory for him. In Ohio, Romney would have a chance to reprise his economic success from Michigan.
Patrick also delves into the exit polls and see’s who the McCain voters are, older belligerent men….heh.
All in all this election year of 2008 sucks ass in my opinion. I am forced to vote against a person instead of for a great candidate. I am not thrilled about Romney but as this video so succinctly describes, I am absolutely disgusted with McCain:
Many people have tried to tell us all that the demise of the GOP is not too far away, Karl Rove disagrees:
Every presidential election is about change, and no more so than at the end of a two-term president’s time in the White House. Parties have to constantly update themselves if they hope to remain relevant. The difficulty for both Republicans and Democrats is that our political system is at a point where more than the normal amount of party growth and development is needed. Both parties are suffering the consequences of seeing substantial parts of their 20th-century agendas adopted; both parties are struggling to fashion new answers to the new challenges of a young century.
But that’s not to say that the Reagan legacy is exhausted. Ronald Reagan’s legacy was not simply that he was “a campaigner and orator of uncommon skill,” as Don Campbell argued last week in USA Today. President Reagan’s gifts to the Republican Party were ideas: growing the economy through tax cuts, limiting government’s size, forcefully confronting totalitarian threats, making human rights a centerpiece of America’s foreign policy, respecting unborn human life, empowering the individual with more freedom. Those ideas endure. They give Republicans a philosophical foundation on which to build. The Reagan coalition has a natural desire to stick together. Fiscal, defense and values conservatives have more in common with each other than with any major element of the Democratic Party’s leadership.
Why then the media’s recent fascination with the supposed demise of the Republican Party? What are the reasons given for why, at least when it comes to the Republicans, “the party’s over,” as NEWSWEEK recently pronounced? First, we are told the GOP nomination has not been won “fairly quickly,” as in recent contests. This is a horrible misremembering of history. The senior Bush took 45 days after the first contest to secure the nomination in 1988. It took Bob Dole 35 days to become the presumptive nominee in 1996. The current president took 45 days to clear the field in 2000. The first contest this year was on Jan. 3. Let’s at least give the process until the middle or end of February before pundits start predicting doom because of how long it’s taking. And if the Republican nomination not being settled is evidence of disaster, what does the Democratic nomination being up for grabs say? It’s normal for both parties’ nominees to be undecided at this point. The season is not moving too slowly. If anything, it is moving too quickly this time, with 38 contests in the first 33 days.
Second, we are told recently by Susan Page, also in USA Today, that “never before in modern times has there been such a muddle,” and then by Jon Meacham in this magazine that the “chaotic nature of the Republican primary race” means “the party of Reagan is now divided in ways it has not been in more than a generation.” Many who witnessed the primary battles of 2000, 1996, 1992 or 1988 might disagree. By their nature, primary races are chaotic. Then a nominee emerges, and the chaos recedes (most of the time). If spirited competition on the Republican side is evidence of a crackup, then what about the Democratic battle? It is focused more and more on race and gender, and Hillary Clinton has the highest negatives of any candidate at this point in an open race for the presidency. The Democratic House and Senate have plummeted to the poorest congressional approval ratings in history.
He also points out to those MSM pundits who go on and on about how the Democrats have raised more money then Republicans that there was no similiar calls when the opposite was true in 2000. No talk about the demise of the Democrat party then…..shocker!
Myself, I see many people in both parties not wanting any of their candidates which just reinforces my notion that this 2008 election sucks ass.
See author page
Curt: Thanks for doing the poll roundup. That’s usually my turf, but I’ve been out of it since our SC debacle on Jan. 19th.
Two more thoughts here:
1. My favorite Pollster Rasmussen (using some very large and hopefully more accurate samples) shows a number of states where Romney could actually beat McCain:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/most_recent_rasmussen_reports_primary_polling
The downside is that states where Romney has a shot like California, Tennesee and Georgia (what happened to Huckaboo?) award delegates proportionally and states where McCheese is comfortably ahead like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Missouri are winner take all.
So even if Romney pulls it out in those handful of states where he has a shot, McCain gets many more delegates.
I’m following the delegate counts and projections here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/republican_delegate_count.html
We know most over here (but not all) hate McCain.
Did you see conservative columnist Jeff Jacoby’s piece today? He says McCain’s not perfect:
“Yet there is no candidate in either party who so thoroughly embodies the conservatism of American honor and tradition as McCain, nor any with greater moral authority to invoke it. For all his transgressions and backsliding, McCain radiates integrity and steadfastness, and if his heterodox stands have at times been infuriating, they also attest to his resolve. Time and again he has taken an unpopular stand and stuck with it, putting his career on the line when it would have been easier to go along with the crowd.
A perfect conservative he isn’t. But he is courageous and steady, a man of character and high standards, a genuine hero. If “the House that Reagan Built” is to be true to its best and highest ideals, it will unite behind John McCain.”
Also, Inside the Beltway’s talking about a new conservative minority:
“The Conservative Movement has morphed from a handful of intellectual true believers trying to shape the debate into something approaching a civil religion with loyalty tests and a clericy that has the power to excommunicate.”
Yo, sound familiar?
I’ve put out the call for conservatives to unite. Seems like that’s a message that’s spreading.
Yes, unite around McCain and swallow the McCool Aid that demands we support the idiocy of a big government solution for the non-existent problem of manmade global warming. Support McCain’s demand for “Z” visa AMNESTY for illegal aliens. Support the unconstitutional incumbent protection act known as McCain-Feingold. Support McCain’s attempt to rape the drug and mortgage companies. Support McCain’s plan to give terrorists U.S. Constitutinal rights and bring them to the United States………
How much longer do you want me to go on!
No thanks Donald! As I’ve said, I’ll vote for McCheese, but it’s your turn to carry the water. McCain’s made it clear that if I disagree with him he does not want my support. “I’m not your candidate” he told me personally.
“The call for conservatives to unite” around a liberal socialist. Unbelieveable. This is what has become of the conservative movement. Calling us all to unite around liberal and socialist ideas, not to mention BS like man caused global warming. Simply unbelieveable.
No Donald I’m sorry but I’ll never back Mccheese for any reason. I’ll vote all down ticket republicans but leave blank the top. All we can do as a nation of free men is to vote our hearts. John McCain is not a part of my heart.