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David
16 years ago
A note on Colorado – the Feb 5 caucuses (both Dem and GOP) are informal and closed. Independents who want to participate had to declare party affiliation no later than January 5. (No exceptions.) Whoever “wins” the caucuses doesn’t necessarily win the most delegates. If this sounds like, “Huh? …,” that’s the way we do things here in backwards Colorado.
If there is anything I do not like at all the Republican primary season is the desire to eliminate their two best candidates – Fred and Rudy, and settle for second best.
I’m now hearing that absentees made up one third of the total vote (this is from the source who believed the numbers were the first wave) and the absentees preferred Romney, 34 percent to 28 percent. Giuliani is described as “far behind.”
That’s what’s going around as the early exits. If you haven’t voted, get out and do it—every vote might really count down there. I asked a friend (not supporting anyone) if Romney still has a chance if that exit poll is accurate: “Oh yes. That’s well within the margin of error. Plus, the final wave isn’t in, and often late voters will differ by several points from those who vote earlier in the day. Which way they will differ—I have no idea.”
bbartlog
16 years ago
Which way they will differ—I have no idea
A good bet is that retirees are proportionally a larger chunk of the earlier voters than the later ones. If the CW that McCain has an edge among older voters is true, then we would expect Romney to gain a little as later returns are added. But the most recent polls suggest that there isn’t much difference in preference between older and younger voters (at least as regards McCain vs Romney), so who knows?
Looks like a squeaker in any case…
A note on Colorado – the Feb 5 caucuses (both Dem and GOP) are informal and closed. Independents who want to participate had to declare party affiliation no later than January 5. (No exceptions.) Whoever “wins” the caucuses doesn’t necessarily win the most delegates. If this sounds like, “Huh? …,” that’s the way we do things here in backwards Colorado.
If there is anything I do not like at all the Republican primary season is the desire to eliminate their two best candidates – Fred and Rudy, and settle for second best.
In the city of Naples, Collier County, they have some early results:
Republican presidential primary
• Mitt Romney – 119
• John McCain – 80
• Rudy Giuliani – 42
• Mike Huckabee – 22
• Fred Thompson – 3
• Ron Paul – 5
Democratic presidential primary
• Hillary Clinton – 63
• John Edwards – 16
• Barack Obama – 22
• Joe Biden – 2
Even more:
And:
More from Rich Lowry:
Which way they will differ—I have no idea
A good bet is that retirees are proportionally a larger chunk of the earlier voters than the later ones. If the CW that McCain has an edge among older voters is true, then we would expect Romney to gain a little as later returns are added. But the most recent polls suggest that there isn’t much difference in preference between older and younger voters (at least as regards McCain vs Romney), so who knows?
Looks like a squeaker in any case…
Some more: