The SC/NV GOP Vote Live Thread

Since I have some free time today up until about 5pm PST I think I will do up some live blogging of the two primaries. At 4pm PST Mike will bringing in his liveblogging chat software so stay tuned to that.

First up is a little rundown of whats at stake here. South Carolina has correctly chosen the GOP nominee since 1980, thats some pretty good odds but I don’t think we’ve seen a election like this in sometime where there is no clear frontrunner.

The weather isn’t that great:

A low pressure system moving along the Gulf Coast is moving Northeast and spreading moisture into the Carolinas and Georgia. Rain is covering our viewing area this morning but as an approaching cold front reaches the Carolinas we are expecting rain mixed with snow by early afternoon and then all snow by this evening. Temperatures will be steady in the low 30’s for the upstate and upper 20’s in the mountains. The snow advisory is until 9 PM tonight and we are looking for 1 to 3 inches of snowfall before it starts to clear after midnight.

Which could dampen the turnout somewhat.

As far as delegates, the winner gets 29 of them and the winners of each of the six congressional districts gets 3 each. Of course this is only if the state isn’t penalized for moving up its primary. Right now that penalty is in effect but many believe they will sit their whole compliment.

Polls, polls, polls. The latest AMG one does show a REAL Fred surge:

But the RCP average has some different numbers:

You know how I feel about polls tho. They are wrong more often then they’re right.

In Nevada there are 34 delegates up for grabs. The RCP poll is thus:

Ron Paul is already disputing the Nevada vote today…and it’s just begun:

Today, the Ron Paul 2008 campaign is calling on the Nevada State Republican Party to re-examine multiple inconsistencies in the Nevada Caucus process, and to consider postponing the caucus, which is scheduled for Saturday, January 19.

“The inconsistencies, errors and multiple changes in the rules reek of playing politics with the what should be a neutral process,” said Ron Paul 2008 campaign manager Lew Moore.

“The people of Nevada deserve to know exactly what the rules are and to know that those rules are being fairly enforced. This has not happened up to this point, and the caucus appears to be in chaos.”

In Carson City, NV the lineup is thick for the caucus:

0945hrs PST -

Republican presidential hopeful former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., makes a campaign stop at Tommy’s Country Ham House to visit the supporters and eat breakfast with his family in Greenville, S.C.

US Republican presidential candidate and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee smiles during a visit to a polling place where voters have gathered for primary elections in Columbia, South Carolina January 19, 2008.

Republican presidential candidate and Senator John McCain (R-AZ) greets supporters during a campaign stop in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, January 18, 2008.

U.S. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney boards his campaign plane at Elko Regional Airport after speaking at a rally at Adobe Middle School in Elko, Nevada, January 18, 2008.

0955hrs PST –

at various times during Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign, there have been moments in which Republicans who admire Thompson and want him to succeed have said, “Yessssss! Yessssss!

Why haven’t we seen more of that?” One such moment happened in December, after Thompson’s “no hand shows” performance at the Des Moines Register debate in Iowa. Another came nine days ago after Thompson’s forceful performance at the Fox News debate in Myrtle Beach.

And there was another last night, in the final appearance of Thompson’s South Carolina primary campaign, in a packed room at Greenville’s Embassy Suites hotel. At that appearance, Thompson was so good, so energized, so non-laid-back-Fred, that many of his supporters wondered where the man had been during the campaign.

If anyone came to the speech to hear specific proposals for any specific problem, they were bound to be disappointed.

The right kind of speech for election eve is almost always a broad declaration of principles, mixed with get-out-the-vote exhortations, and that’s what Thompson did Friday night.

But he had a more specific message, too, directed to the debate going on inside the Republican party these days. And the message was: Don’t listen to those people who say the party has to change.

Stick to the conservative principles that got us here.

And here is an update with some problems reported in SC:

The weather today is turning worse: Snow is coming to the Midlands in late afternoon, but shouldn’t stick to the roads. In the Upstate, 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected this afternoon.

Morning voter turnout was low at a couple of the larger Lexington County precincts, according to poll workers. Both the Lexington 1 precinct at Saxe Gotha Presbyterian Church and Irmo precinct at Irmo Elementary School are usually Republican bastions with residents waiting in lines to vote. While the stream of voters into those polling places Saturday was steady, neither had lines to speak of.

A few voters were surprised to find their polling places closed. Election officials changed the locations of eight polling places in Richland County; two in Lexington County were combined, too. Lake Murray 1 precinct, which used to have its polling place at the Lake Murray Community Center at 1031 St. Peters Church Road, now is at St. Peter’s Church, at 1130 St. Peters Church Road.

A Blythewood area voter complained that his voter registration card had incorrect information about his polling place. Howard Peake had voted in Blythewood in the past, but the new registration card said his precinct should vote at Kelly Mill Elementary School at 1141 Kelly Mill Road.

Peake said he spent 30 minutes looking for Kelly Mill Elementary School. All he could find was Kelly Road Middle School. Finally stopping there to ask where the elementary school was, he found out he was supposed to vote at the mid-dle school. “That can be very misleading for the first time you vote at a new place,” Peake said.

Elsewhere in the sate, a computer programming error caused several electronic voting machines to not work when the polls opened at 7 a.m. today for the Republican primary, according to Sandy Martin, Horry County’s Voters Registration and Election director.

“We’re working on getting it all worked out,” Martin said at 9:15 a.m. “Most of them are up and running now. There are a few scattered precincts we haven’t got to yet.”

Martin said voters used paper ballots to cast their votes in places at precincts where electronic machines malfunctioned.

And in Horry County they have reported 80% of the voting machines are malfunctioning. They’ve moved into paper polls now.

1010hrs PST -

Looks like the Fred Surge has brought out the attacks. After one of his rallys in Greenville people returned to their cars finding a flyer saying:

“FACT: Fred Thompson voted to give over $65 millon of YOUR tax dollars to America’s largest Abortion provider Planned Parenthood in 2002,”

While he did vote yes on that bill, along with 90 others, it was a regular appropriation bill. Funds did go to planned parenthood but it is illegal for them to use any of those funds for abortion. Do you really believe the National Right to Life Organization would endorse Fred if they thought he wasn’t completely against abortion? Come on.

Plus we now know who did the push polling:

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee had a popular wrestler and a TV and martial-arts star campaigning with him in South Carolina on Thursday, while his GOP rivals accused him of hitting below the belt.

With the state’s Republican presidential primary on Saturday, the campaign grew nasty as former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee and Arizona Sen. John McCain accused Huckabee’s campaign of conducting push polls — calls disguised as polls that are intended to spread false information about a candidate’s opponents.

Thompson charged that a group with links to Huckabee called the Common Sense Foundation was making calls and distorting his record on abortion. Thompson is anti-abortion.

McCain’s campaign said Wednesday that it, too, has been the target of abortion push-poll calls by a group called Common Sense Issues, which performed calls on Huckabee’s behalf in Iowa. When asked about the push-poll charges, the Huckabee campaign directed reporters to a news release on its Web site that was posted Wednesday.

“As I’ve said before, our campaign has nothing to do with push polling, and I wish they would stop,” Huckabee said in the release.”

1015hrs PST –

Fox and CBS just called Nevada for Romney. At a little over 10am they are calling it already. WTF!

1025hrs PST –

Here is a good site to check out the SC poll results.

1030hrs PST -

Commenter CeChase below:

Sadly, the Republicans have really screwed up with respect to their caucus. My place to caucus was at Reed High School in Sparks, NV [next to Reno]. When I arrived near there I was in a traffic jam, and then could not find any parking and had to part in the shopping center across the street. When I walked over to the high school, there was a huge line four abreast going from the front of the school, and around the side, when I was half way back, the end of the line has to be a quarter or eight of a mile away. The outside temperature was 24 degrees.

I am 73, and have voted in every election and primary since 1956. I wanted to vote for Fred, but there is no way I can take that cold and standing for hours.

Why the Republicans choose to have all the Republicans in Sparks, NV to show up at one place cannot be explained unless they planned for a low turnout – that was not the case here, or Galena High Scool or Reno High School. They all reported traffic jams and very very long lines and lack of parking. I should mention that this is a very strong Republican area, and perhaps our leaders should be replaced with people who know how to plan and conduct an event!!

Not good.

Here is a webpage with county by country results for Nevada

And remember with Nevada the voters elect delegates representing specific candidates. Each precinct receives a particular number of delegates based on the number of registered Republicans.

Nevada is divided into more than 1,700 precincts, each of which will meet separately to select delegates. The number of delegates assigned to each precinct follows a formula based on the number of registered party members.

~~~

The Republicans also are electing delegates to go to county conventions and elect state Republican Convention delegates who will elect Republican National Convention delegates. That convention is scheduled for September in St. Paul, Minn.

But the Republicans, both here and in Iowa, elect delegates separately from voting on presidential contenders. After they choose delegates in a straightforward election process, they fill out secret ballots stating their presidential choice. The party had hoped to use voting machines, but that didn’t work out and paper ballots will instead be used.

There will be seven candidates on the ballot, based on criteria approved by the state party: Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter.

The caucus locations will collect results for all the precincts at each location, then phone the results in to Nevada Republican Party headquarters. The raw vote totals will be shown on the www.nvgopcaucus.com… Web site as they come in. Republicans expect to have the votes counted by 1 p.m.

Since the delegates elected at the Republican caucus aren’t necessarily committed to a candidate at all, the Republican contest is also technically nonbinding.

1050hrs PST –

Disgusting:

The few voters who managed to show up at the polling station cast their ballots for an array of GOP candidates, but at least a couple backed McCain. Delbert Norrington, a retiree who lives in Charleston, was actually hoping to vote for Fred Thompson but decided the former Tennessee senator was too much of a long shot in the presidential race.

“If you want your vote to count, you’ve got to vote for someone who has a chance. It’s a shame, because I agree with just about everything he says,” Norrington said of Thompson. Still, he said he considered McCain “a good conservative.”

On Nevada:

The Associated Press has passed along some of the data gleaned from “entrance polls” of GOP voters as they arrived at the caucuses. According to those surveys, AP says, “Mormons almost unanimously supported Mitt Romney in his easy victory Saturday in Nevada’s Republican presidential caucuses.”

They “comprised roughly a fifth of those attending Nevada’s GOP caucuses, and more than nine in 10 were voting for Romney, according to early results from the survey conducted for the Associated Press and television networks. Romney is a Mormon, and his religion has been cited as a problem by some Republican voters.”

1105hrs PST -

As of right now Ron Paul is coming in 3rd in Nevada. Which should not be surprising to most people since caucuses tend to go to the best organized. I have no doubt the Ronulans had their people out in force and on time. He has no chance of winning anything but with fanatics following him the Caucus is the best format for him.

Romney’s campaign:

The Nevada win shows that his boss “is the best candidate to compete out West,” Romney campaign spokesman Kevin Madden just told USA TODAY’s David Jackson.

1115hrs PST –

Nevada so far with 29 of 1789 precincts reporting

Romney – 526 votes – 44%
McCain – 185 votes – 16%
Paul – 159 votes – 14%
Thompson – 116 votes – 10%
Huckabee – 112 votes – 10%

Rich Lowry:

Final SC Thoughts: And with one of us on the ground in South Carolina, here are a few final thoughts on the GOP contest there: Thompson’s crowd yesterday of more than 400 anti-immigration, national security hardliners was fervent and he was animated, pacing back and forth on the stage gesturing forcefully and talking tough. He got “Amens” and “that’s rights” Perhaps his best performance yet? But one can’t help but feel that had he given his all and had he bought into the process, he could win this thing — which he probably won’t. Huck, playing guitar again, drew a smaller crowd than Fred (about 250 to 300) at the University of South Carolina in Columbia. And many on the ground are questioning the level of zeal here among evangelicals compared with Iowa. As for McCain, he’s going to get the veterans and coastal voters. It’s almost as if they’re on a mission. Maybe they even think something’s owed to him from 2000. This state will break three ways — the coast, Lexington County and the upstate. McCain solely campaigned at the coast yesterday, while Huckabee and Thompson campaigned in the same neighborhoods upstate.

1120hrs PST –

Romney on his win:

“Today, the people of Nevada voted for change in Washington. For far too long, our leaders have promised to take the action necessary to build a stronger America, and still the people of Nevada and all across this country are waiting. Whether it is reforming health care, making America energy independent or securing the border, the American people have been promised much and are now ready for change.

“The need for change is even more apparent today as our economy faces challenges both here at home and abroad. For decades, we have talked about the long-term economic challenges confronting our country but still the tax burden is too high, business is stifled by regulations and more money goes to defending against junk lawsuits than promoting research and innovation. Now, Washington must act and take the steps necessary to strengthen our economy. With a career spent turning around businesses, creating jobs and imposing fiscal discipline, I am ready to get my hands on Washington and turn it inside out.”

Here we go with the whole change theme again.

1135hrs PST –

Kathryn at The Corner:

I’m told Romney won white born-again/evangelical Christians, 32%-24% over Mike Huckabee. White evangelicals were 19% of the vote in Nevada, and this is the second consecutive contest where they went for Romney.

1140hrs PST –

A little sampling of what it was like in the Nevada Caucus:

Our precinct (never mind which, but within an hour of RNO airport) was a mess. The line was long, but we started only 25 minutes late. In response to a proposal that we amend the rules to have the vote first, and the party platform BS later, the lady in charge said “that’s the one rule they told us we can’t change.” (So much for our precinct having our own rules.)

They were very vague and confused about the delegates. They simply had a sign-up sheet, and allowed anyone who wanted to sign up as a delegate to the county convention March 1. Mostly Ron Paul supporters signed up. All the delegate volunteers went to the front of the room. We were allocated 9 delegates, but over a dozen went to the front. There was a vote by acclimation to approve us all. No one ever identified which delegate supported whom, and there was no chance to vote in favor of delegates whose views we supported. (Or against those who we opposed. (Hell if I know who will really be seated at the district). Bottom line: caucus attendees did not select the delegates who will represent them.

When it came time for the preference poll, each candidate was permitted one person to speak for 60 seconds. A Ron Paul supporter (they were visibly very organized) gave a talk that had to be cut off for time. I spoke for Fred, emphasizing the Constitution, federalism, and limited government, and noting that he is the the only who who can bring the party together, since all the front runners are fatally flawed to one segment or another, and will leave some party members staying home in November.

No one spoke for any other candidate. The adjacent precinct in the same hall had no speakers for any candidate.

The meeting concluded about 10:10

1145hrs PST -

Nevada so far with 71 of 1789 precincts reporting

Romney – 2421 votes – 48%
McCain – 744 votes – 15%
Paul – 640 votes – 13%
Huckabee – 470 votes – 9%
Thompson – 444 votes – 9%

1155hrs PST –

1200hrs PST -

Nevada so far with 339 of 1789 precincts reporting

Romney – 6355 votes – 55%
McCain – 1417 votes – 12%
Paul – 1358 votes – 12%
Huckabee – 910 votes – 8%
Thompson – 879 votes – 8%

1205hrs PST -

From the SC Primary:

“We have received reports from Horry County that voters are being turned away from the polls, because electronic voting machines are not working and paper ballots are not available. Some voters say they are being instructed to return at a later time. We are disturbed by these reports and hope that this issue is resolved immediately. We encourage any voters who were turned away from the polls to return again to their polling place this afternoon to exercise their constitutional right to vote.”

1220hrs PST -

From the AP on the Nevada Caucus:

Romney and anti-war Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, were the only Republicans who had a campaign presence here. The other major GOP candidates were busy in South Carolina and Florida, which votes Jan. 29, and did not contest Nevada.

Surveys of voters as they entered the caucuses showed Romney won 9 out of 10 Mormons, who comprised about a fifth of participants, the AP reported. He also did well among older voters and those making more than $100,000 a year.

Nevada is the third state Romney has won, after Wyoming and Michigan. Madden said it gives him a claim on the lead for convention delegates, assuming Nevada’s 34 delegates are seated for him. They are expected to abide by the caucus results at their September convention.

Steve Wark, a state GOP spokesman, said turnout was heavier than expected. The party anticipated 30,000 but now says it will be more. The last GOP caucus here was 20 years ago and attracted about 11,000 people, Wark said.

1225hrs PST -

Nevada so far with 339 of 1789 precincts reporting

Romney – 9555 votes – 56%
McCain – 2084 votes – 12%
Paul – 2011 votes – 12%
Huckabee – 1290 votes – 8%
Thompson – 1246 votes – 7%

1230hrs PST –

I just got off the phone with Spartanburg County GOP chairman Rick Beltram, who told me that Mitt Romney has already incorporated his Nevada victory into his automated phone calls here in South Carolina. With four hours to go until polls close, that could influence the outcome more than press coverage of Romney’s win.

1235hrs PST –

Nevada so far with 646 of 1789 precincts reporting

Romney – 9367 votes – 55%
McCain – 2175 votes – 13%
Paul – 2078 votes – 12%
Huckabee – 1437 votes – 8%
Thompson – 1205 votes – 7%

And a rundown on some Greenville, SC voters here.

1320hrs PST

Fred will go to Florida:

Fred Thompson, trailing Mike Huckabee and John McCain in the polls, will continue his presidential bid even if he finishes third in today’s South Carolina primary, his campaign said.

Thompson, who had talked of South Carolina as his last stand, appeared this afternoon at a gun show in a suburban Shriners’ auditorium — a natural fit given his strong support of the Second Amendment right to own firearms. Several patrons wore “Fred ‘08” stickers on their clothing; as Thompson swept into the packed hall he was greeted by a modest round of applause.

“Go, Fred!” one woman shouted.

“How we doin’?” Thompson asked, greeting passers-by as he walked along the narrow aisles displaying hunting scopes and high-tech shotguns. He shook hands, paused for autographs, and posed for photos snapped on cell phones.

“When are you and Huckabee going to team up?” one well-wisher asked as Thompson gripped his hand.

“We are teamed up,” Thompson quipped. “We’re teamed up beating on each other.”

And here is Nevada so far with 646 of 1789 precincts reporting

Romney – 13819 votes – 54%
Paul – 3286 votes – 13%
McCain – 3273 votes – 13%
Huckabee – 1926 votes – 7%
Thompson – 1885 votes – 7%

And McCain’s camp is looking to extend the Horry county hours:

A lawyer for Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign tells CNN he is seeking a court order to extend voting in Horry County by one hour, after learning voting machines in this eastern part of the state were malfunctioning on primary day.

State Rep. Tracey Edge, R-Myrtle Beach, said the campaign was trying to find a circuit court judge to issue the ruling.

“We are seeking an order to extend the voting time, because of reported and publicized information that people were turned away from the polls,” Edge said.

All polls in the South Carolina Republican primary are scheduled to close at 7 p.m. ET. Complicating matters for McCain, the county has just one resident circuit court judge, who they have not yet been able to reach. McCain won Horry County when he ran for president in 2000.

1350hrs PST -

Nevada with 1398 of 1789 precincts reporting

Romney – 17860 votes – 53%
Paul – 4401 votes – 13%
McCain – 4374 votes – 13%
Thompson – 2622 votes – 8%
Huckabee – 2568 votes – 8%

1430hrs PST -

Nevada with 1528 of 1789 precincts reporting

Romney – 19930 votes – 53%
Paul – 4813 votes – 13%
McCain – 4730 votes – 13%
Thompson – 2856 votes – 8%
Huckabee – 2853 votes – 8%

1510hrs PST -

Almost all of the precincts are in from the Nevada caucus, 1711 out of 1789 precincts reporting:

Romney – 21724 votes – 52%
Paul – 5417 votes – 13%
McCain – 5374 votes – 13%
Thompson – 3314 votes – 8%
Huckabee – 3295 votes – 8%

Fox is reporting some exit polls which blow me away. Didn’t they learn anything from 2000? Exit polls should not be released until after the polls close unless your actively trying to influence the election.

I’m going to end this live blog and point you to the newest post with the Live Blog/Chat set to kick off at 1600hrs.