The "Doom" Of The Midterms

Recall that months prior to November 2004 we had poll after poll and article after article detailing the reasons why Kerry was going to win, and win big.

Deja vu?

After a year of political turmoil, Republicans enter the fall campaign with their control of the House in serious jeopardy, the possibility of major losses in the Senate, and a national mood so unsettled that districts once considered safely Republican are now competitive, analysts and strategists in both parties say.

Sixty-five days before the election, the signs of Republican vulnerability are widespread.

Indiana, which President Bush carried by 21 percentage points in 2004, now has three Republican House incumbents in fiercely contested races. Around the country, some of the most senior Republicans are facing their stiffest challenges in years, including Representative E. Clay Shaw Jr. of Florida, the veteran Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee; Representative Nancy L. Johnson of Connecticut, a state increasingly symbolic of this year’s political unrest; and Representative Deborah Pryce of Ohio, the No. 4 Republican in the House.

Two independent political analysts have, in recent weeks, forecast a narrow Democratic takeover of the House, if current political conditions persist. Stuart Rothenberg, who had predicted Democratic gains of 8 to 12 seats in the House, now projects 15 to 20. Democrats need 15 to regain the majority. Charles Cook, the other analyst, said: “If nothing changes, I think the House will turn. The key is, if nothing changes.”

If you continue to read the article you hardly get any real numbers other then the “dissatisfaction” polls. As we all know some on the right are not satisfied with Bush’s immigration policies and will poll that way. That does not mean, however, that they will vote Democrat. The writer of the article then writes about “tightly contested” elections and from there they get their opinion that the Republican are in jeopardy.

Baloney.

Ed Morrissey doesn’t feel the picture is as bleak as the Times portrays either:

Midterm elections always prove trying for the party in power, especially when one controls both houses of Congress and the White House. No one ever thought that this election would be a cakewalk, especially with the situation in Iraq providing even more dissonance than usual. The GOP will have a tough time holding onto both chambers of Congress. The picture does not look as bleak as it did two months ago, however, and the Times should have done better research for its analysis than that presented here.

The polls are so wildly skewed anyone who lives by them is living in a comic book. This was proved correct during the 2004 Presidential election and will be proven correct once again. Some of the polls have the Republicans losing by double digits but then some come out showing we are in a dead heat:

Republicans have moved closer to the Democrats in a congressional voter-preference poll just as the election campaigns near the official Labor Day starting gate.

The surprising findings in a little-noticed Gallup Poll that were ignored by most of the national news media shows the Democrats barely leading the Republicans by just two points — 47 percent to 45 percent.

After months of generic polling numbers by Gallup and others showing the GOP lagged far behind the Democrats by a seemingly insurmountable nine to 10 points, the titanic political battle for control of Congress is virtually dead even. This means we may not experience the feared Category 5 political storm some election analysts have forecast that would topple the GOP’s House majority and cut deeply into its grip on the Senate.

So which is it?

The people in the center have heard nothing from the left for months on end on how Bush hyped the terrorist threat to get votes but then they see stuff like the Sky Bombing arrests.

The citizens of this country see that the Democrats response to terrorism is to react to a terrorist event rather then pro-actively attack the terrorists themselves. They were against the Patriot Act, against the wiretapping of Al-Qaeda calling their compadres inside the US, against holding terrorists at Gitmo, basically against fighting the terrorists. People see the Democrats wanting to stick their heads in the sand and wishing it all away. Their only idea? Work with the allies, meaning the UN. But everyone and their brother knows what a terrible job the UN has done fighting terrorism. The UN strategy is basically the Democrats, appease.

Those who believe the threat is real, as a majority do, will think twice before pulling a lever for a appeasing Democrat.

While the Republicans will most certainly lose some seats, historically this is the norm for mid-terms, we will not lose the amount the Times and the KosKiddies believe.

Expect the day after election day to be a repeat of ’04….lots of wailing about “what happened?”

UPDATE

Larry Kudlow believes the tide is turning:

As pessimistic as I have become about Republican chances to keep the House, there may yet be hope. Front-page stories yesterday in the Washington Post and today in the New York Times essentially predict significant GOP losses and a growing likelihood that the Dems will finally capture the lower chamber for the first time since 1994. The reason I’m starting to rethink my pessimism is simply that the mainstream media always gets it wrong. As soon as they start ganging up on the GOP on the front pages, the likelihood becomes greater that the tide may be turning the other way.

Very good point. The MSM gets it wrong more often then not. Typically they report their opinions as fact and then continue to astounded when those “facts” are proven false.

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Curt

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